Who are Essendon’s top SuperCoach picks, cash cows and high-risk players?

ESSENDON is expected to be the big improver this year and push for top-four and even the premiership. More wins equals more SuperCoach points, right? THE BEST BUYS, VALUE AND RISKS AT THE BOMBERS

ESSENDON is expected to be the big improver in season 2018 after a recruiting spree in the off-season.

Can the inclusion of Jake Stringer, Devon Smith and Adam Saad deliver more wins and a top-four finish?

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That is the expectation and with more victories come more SuperCoach points, so there could be plenty of value to be found from players wearing red and black this year.

Here is our take on Essendon’s best buys, best value and the players to avoid at Bomberland in 2018.

PREMIUMS

ZACH MERRETT $600,600 MID

The consistent Bomber cemented his spot as one of the premium SuperCoach midfielders in 2017, backing up his 111.5 average in 2017 with a 109.2 average last year to be ranked the 16th-best overall scorer. Merrett has the ability to go huge, scoring 120 points or more eight times from 21 matches last season and in total scored 100 points or more 12 times. Merrett isn’t as popular as Patrick Dangerfield, Dustin Martin or Tom Mitchell as players priced at $600,000+ but could be that valuable point of difference we’re all searching for.

Zach Merrett is the most expensive Essendon player in SuperCoach. Picture: Getty

MICHEL HURLEY $563,500 DEF

With Blue Sam Docherty out for the season the door is open for Hurley to become the highest-scoring defender in 2018 but can he back up his 2017 scores? The full back is the second most expensive Bomber behind Merrett and averaged 102.5 points per game last year on the back of 12 scores over 100. The concern is — could he be available for cheaper at some stage early on in the season? He started slowly last year with scores of 80, 94, 73 and 81 in the opening four rounds before exploding with a run of five-straight scores of 100+. We know scores for key defenders and forwards can be up and down so Hurley could be more of an upgrade target once we can see some exposed form for scoring potential.

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DYSON HEPPELL $547,300 MID

With a full season under his belt after returning from his ban expect the Bombers skipper to go from strength to strength. Averaged 99.5 last year but has averaged 106.4 and 104.8 in 2014 and 2015 respectively and could get back to that form in 2018 with Essendon expected to be the big movers and challenge for top four. Hit triple figures 12 times in 2017 and notched five scores over 110. Point of difference with an attractive price tag as a fourth or fifth starting midfielder.

Is Dyson Heppell worth a gamble? Picture: Getty

MID-PRICE RISKS

JAKE STRINGER $356,000 FWD

The most popular Essendon player in SuperCoach for 2018 (at time of publish) with an ownership percentage of 19.9, Stringer presents outstanding value but can we trust him? He’s set to spend more time in the midfield at his new club, with his explosiveness around stoppages and ability to burst away and kick goals hard to ignore given the SuperCoach points on offer. But the facts are Stringer has never averaged more than 80 points in any of his five seasons, with his best a 78.8 average in 2015. Is a change of club enough to reignite his career? A bit too inconsistent to be a lock but a brilliant JLT Series will quickly change our minds given the attractive price tag.

Picking Jake Stringer in your SuperCoach team is a risk. Picture: Michael Klein

DEVON SMITH $439,100 FWD

The pick of the Bombers recruits when it comes to SuperCoach. Despite his injury history, Smith has averaged 91 points per game before (in 2014) and was ultra-consistent in 2015 and 2016 with averages of 89 and 81.8 points per game respectively. He didn’t get much opportunity in the stacked GWS midfield but will have the opportunity to spend more time up the ground at Essendon and that can only mean good things for his scoring ability.

JOE DANIHER $472,800 FWD

Big Joe will spearhead the Bombers’ forward line and with more supply likely heading his way following a fruitful off-season to bolster the midfield, Daniher could reach greater heights in 2018. Averaged 86 points from 22 games in a breakout year despite his wayward kicking. Get that right and his scores will explode from 80s to 100s.

Joe Daniher averaged 86 points per game in 2017. Picture: Glenn Ferguson

ADAM SAAD $399,800 DEF

Saad is exciting to watch when he gets the ball off halfback and puts it under his arm but his ball use can let him down and that’s a major red flag in the SuperCoach world. Saad has never averaged 80 points per game in his three seasons, with his best year coming in his debut year when he averaged 78 points from 16 games. Only tonned up once last year — and the ball spent a lot of time in the Gold Coast back 50 — and hit 80 only four times. But could this be Saad’s breakout SuperCoach year? He is now in his fourth season and back home surrounded by family and friends and in a better line-up. High risk, high reward player.

ROOKIES

MATT GUELFI $117,300 FWD

Drafted from Claremont with pick 76 in last year’s national draft, the 20-year-old made his first appearance in red and black in Friday night’s AFLX tournament. He looked OK and is a ‘Mr. Fix it’ of sorts given he can play in multiple positions and has pace to burn but is unlikely to play a huge role in his first season at the club.

LUKE LAVENDER $102,400 RUCK

Won’t play unless Matthew Leuenberger and Tom Bellchambers both go down with injury but could be a handy bench pick in the ruck as your captaincy loophole.

David Myers and Tom Bellchambers at training. Picture: Michael Klein

NO-GO ZONE

DAVID MYERS $321,200 MID

Myers was one of the most popular cash cow picks last year but injury, form and low scores quickly saw SuperCoaches scramble for the trade button. Stay away.

PATRICK AMBROSE $309,700 DEF

Has become a really handy defender to partner Hurley down back and allow Cale Hooker to stay forward but has never set the SuperCoach world alight with sub-60 averages in his four seasons.

ESSENDON PREDICTED BEST 22

B: M. Baguley M. Hurley P. Ambrose

HB: A. Saad M. Hartley C. McKenna

C: A. McGrath D. Zaharakis B. Goddard

HF: J. Stringer C. Hooker D. Smith

F: O. Fantasia J. Daniher A. McDonald-Tipungwuti

Foll: T. Bellchambers D. Heppell Z. Merrett

I/C: D. Parish M. Leuenberger J. Green D. Myers

Emerg: J. Laverde K. Langford J. Stewart

Both Kyle Langford and Jayden Laverde very unlucky to miss out but either of those could easily come into the 22. Do the Bombers go in with two rucks or will Tom Bellchambers and Matthew Leuenberger fight for the No.1 spot in the JLT Series? Travis Colyer left out given he will miss the first six rounds of the season after having foot surgery.