Which players are ready to break out in SuperCoach this year?

FINDING the next big thing is one of the biggest challenges in SuperCoach. Get get it right and you can ride your success all season. Who could jump to SuperCoach stardom in 2018?

EVERY year we try and identify the next big thing, every year we succeed … well, at least we’d like to.

There are ways that we can try and alleviate the risk involved with selecting breakout contenders, pray to the Supercoach gods, try and convince Champion Data to halve Patrick Dangerfield’s price tag or, most effectively, do some research.

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When it comes to identifying breakout contenders there are three key things we look at are:

1. How is the player performing compared to other players his age?

2. How did he finish his last season?

3. What role will he fill this season?

With a little bit of luck and some research into the above categories, we just might be able to find some hidden gems for 2018.

Let’s take a look at a player from each position and see how they stack up.

CHARLIE CURNOW $408,100 FWD

Charlie Curnow has been spoken about as a breakout contender a fair bit this pre-season and there are some pretty good reasons for it.

He enters his third season in 2018 and if the tail end of 2017 is anything to go by, he’s ready to step his game up a notch.

Charlie Curnow has enormous potential.

From Round 14 onward, Curnow averaged 92.7 Supercoach points per game but to simplify things let’s break down his numbers over just the last two months of the season.

In his last 8 games Curnow averaged 90.6 Supercoach points with 15 disposals per game, 7.7 contested possessions, 2.8 tackles and 1.3 goals. These numbers are all above average for forwards his age and he achieved them it in just 77 per cent game time.

It’s pretty safe to assume the Curnow’s tank will have improved in the off-season and that he’ll being seeing some more game time throughout 2018.

There are rumours that he’ll find himself in the midfield but even if that isn’t the case he has proven to be a reliable scorer in the forward half.

Curnow is a pretty safe bet in the breakout contender stakes. Given the lack of standout forward options it’ll only take a small jump for the young Blue to become a premium option, plus his price means that if it all blows up in your face you can move him to another premium very easily.

CONNOR BLAKELY $490,300 MID

Under the tutorship of Nat Fyfe and Lachie Neale, Connor Blakely is quickly shaping up to become Fremantle’s next superstar.

Blakely has steadily increased his Supercoach average across all three seasons of his playing career, 2018 looks no different.

Over his last eleven games in 2017, excluding his final game in which he was injured, Blakely averaged 28 disposals, 10.5 contested possessions, 5.6 marks and 4.8 tackles per game for an average of 110 Supercoach points.

It’s not clear how much time he’ll spend in the midfield or on the halfback line but based on 2017 he can play both roles.

Blakely looks like he could be ready for a similar jump to Clayton Oliver of 2017 and despite the ‘Ross factor’ at just $480,000 is an absolute bargain.

These are numbers comparable to Rory Sloane, Nat Fyfe and Adam Treloar at the same point in their careers!

DAWSON SIMPSON $290,300 RUCK

This is a bit of a speculative pick but after the success of last year’s mid-priced ruckmen, Dawson Simpson is worth consideration.

Simpson isn’t as young as most other breakout contenders but with the retirement of Shane Mumford he does have an opportunity to take over the ruck mantle at GWS.

If Simpson can stay on the park, he is yet to play a full season, it’s feasible that he could average around 90 Supercoach points per game, similar to Jarrod Witts of 2017.

Simpson only played two games in 2017 but across both games he fulfilled the number one ruck role and registered 77 hitouts for scores of 85 and 91.

With Rory Lobb looking comfortable as a forward who pinch-hits in the ruck, GWS could look to run Simpson as the permanent ruckman.

At his price, an average of around 90 would very quickly net you a profit of close to $200K and will give you salary cap flexibility which could mean another starting premium option.

Rising Star winner Andrew McGrath is set to spend more time in the midfield this season.

ANDREW McGRATH $388,400 DEF

Can the AFL Rising Star winner avoid the dreaded second year blues and breakout in 2018?

McGrath averaged just 71 Supercoach points in his first year but was able to put together eight scores above 80 including a 101 against Richmond in round 10.

These numbers aren’t overly impressive but what’s interesting is that McGrath averaged 79.3 in games where he collected more than 20 possessions.

With the addition of Adam Saad into Essendon’s line-up, a move to the midfield seems natural for McGrath. Assistant Coach Mark Harvey seems to agree, “I see Andy being a full-time mid”.

With added exposure to time in the midfield we can expect a boost in McGrath’s possession count to increase and with that his Supercoach score.

McGrath is priced to average around 72 Supercoach points and could be a great stepping stone in the backline with potential to breakout into a keeper.

With some luck, the players we’ve discussed will bring us one step closer to winning our leagues and finishing very highly in the rankings.

Let me know who you think will breakout this year on Twitter @Lekblog and get more SuperCoach content in the Jock Reynolds SuperCoach Community.