The nine riskiest picks in SuperCoach in 2019
SuperCoach is a game of risk vs reward. But how big a risk are you prepared to take? From a returning Dog to a comeback Swan and a new Hawk, check out the nine riskiest picks in SuperCoach in 2019.
Supercoach
Don't miss out on the headlines from Supercoach. Followed categories will be added to My News.
SuperCoach is a game of risk versus reward.
Put simply, you can’t win by playing safe. The question is how big a risk are you prepared to take?
The players listed below could be genius selections who deliver amazing value for their price and set you up for SuperCoach glory. Or they could blow up in your face.
To be honest, the chances of the latter are higher than the former. But that’s what makes them so damn tempting.
ROOKIE BIBLE: CHEAP PLAYERS TO WATCH IN SUPERCOACH
AL PATON’S TEAM: CATS RECRUIT SOLVES RUCK RIDDLE
BARGAINS: NEXT YEAR’S UNDERPRICED SUPERCOACH STARS
Will you be the only person in your league brave enough to pick Libba, Mummy or Rocky? Or all three?
Here’s our take on the nine riskiest picks in SuperCoach in 2019.
Tom Liberatore (Western Bulldogs) $300,400 midfielder
Who can be sure what’s going on with Libba’s body — or in his head?
But one thing we do know is the man who returned to pre-season training with a tattoo of a fruit and nut chocolate bar on his forearm can score points in SuperCoach.
At his best, Liberatore is a ball-winning tackling machine who averaged 107 points a game in 2013 and 110 the year after. His role seemed to change in 2017, spending more time forward before he wrecked his knee in the first game of 2018.
Libba says his knee is now “100 per cent” and he’s back in full training, but what does Luke Beveridge have in mind for the former best-and-fairest winner?
A that price anything that keeps him on the park will be a win.
Harley Bennell (Fremantle) $167,700 midfielder
No, that price isn’t a misprint. Paying under $200,000 for a player who averaged 95-plus four years in a row — including a 102-point average in 2015 — seems insane.
But this is also a guy who has played just two games in the past two seasons as his career was derailed by a series of soft-tissue injuries and off-field drama.
But Ross Lyon has backed him in to repay his faith and Bennell signed a one-year deal in August. His manager Colin Young says Bennell’s calf is “OK” and he knows he is on his last AFL chance.
“Harley knows exactly what he has to do next year to get back to becoming an elite player,” he said on SEN.
“Hopefully he does play the 22 games next year and proves himself again.”
Pearce Hanley (Gold Coast) $296,400 defender
It’s a few years since Hanley was a top SuperCoach pick dashing off half-back for Brisbane.
Since then he has been traded to Gold Coast and has had a terrible run with injuries, with shoulder and hamstring problems ruining his 2018 campaign.
But that price makes us take notice again. If he scores anything north of 50 his price will go up, and it could be a sharp jump if he can put a string of games together like the last four games of 2017 when he produced scores of 119, 100, 87, 105.
The odds of getting 22 games out of him aren’t high but a quick cash grab isn’t out of the question.
Shane Mumford (GWS) $320,200 ruck
Big Mummy retired at the end of 2017 after a decade of bashing and crashing for the Cats, Swans and Giants, with a foot injury the final straw for the popular ruckman.
But after a year out of the game Mumford is back, signing with the Giants under new AFL rookie rules.
He says his body is refreshed after keeping fit working as the GWS ruck coach and starting a boxing career.
He’s likely to play as the Giants’ No.1 ruckman which should mean 80-odd SuperCoach points in the bank on its own, and he has shown an ability in the past to go way bigger. In 2015 he scored 120-plus in four of his 11 games and the year before he went above 150 three times.
The issue is that was a while back, Mumford is now 32 with a battered body and — a huge red flag — he’ll miss the first two rounds through suspension after being filmed snorting cocaine.
But if you can find ruck cover (by, for example, starting Justin Westhoff in your forward line who can switch with a ruck/forward rookie) or wear the losses knowing private leagues don’t start until Round 3, it could be a very brave, and rewarding, move.
Tom Scully (Hawthorn) $334,900 midfielder
Scully caused the biggest surprise of the trade period when he quit the Giants to join Hawthorn.
Opinions are divided about his recovery from a serious ankle injury, with some predicting a successful return and others suggesting he’ll never be the same player who broke GPS monitors and averaged a career-high 97 SuperCoach points a game in 2016.
We remember similar talk when the Hawks recruited Jaeger O’Meara so that provides a template of the potential risks and rewards of picking Scully in SuperCoach.
There is no timeline on Scully’s return although he says “everything’s on track” as he makes a cautious return to pre-season training.
Watch and wait.
JON RALPH’S TEAM: HOW I PLAN TO BEAT ROBBO
ELIZA SEWELL’S TEAM: BILLINGS DESERVES ANOTHER CHANCE
THE PHANTOM’S TEAM: PUNTING ON MID-PRICE MADNESS
Jack Billings (St Kilda) $437,600 forward
Billings has his name etched on the “never again” list of many SuperCoach players — including this author, so bear that in mind when reading a preview of his 2019 prospects.
After averaging 93 points a game in 2017 and scoring 133 in Round 1 last season, Billings suffered a similar fate to his team. He didn’t score another ton until Round 17 including a month in which he didn’t score above 60.
That hardly inspires confidence, but his back end to the season was encouraging (96 average over the past month), the talent that made him a popular pick is still there and — surely — the Saints will be better next year.
Then there is the tantalising prospect of Billings spending more time in the midfield.
On the other side of the equation, that midfield time has been promised for a long time but hasn’t happened and it will be harder to get a role with the arrival of Dan Hannebery. Then there’s his kicking for goal — in the past five years he has never boasted an accuracy of more than 42 per cent.
Then again, he’s $80,000 cheaper than he was at Round 1 last year. Herald Sun reporter Eliza Sewell is prepared to give him another chance. She’s braver than me.
Matthew Kreuzer (Carlton) $432,900 ruck
Looking for a risky ruckman who will play the first two rounds? Kreuzer could be the man.
He had 50 points at quarter-time in Round 1 last season before injuries struck and never really recovered, with a heart scare ending his season at Round 17.
It’s easy to forget he was the No.1 ruckman in SuperCoach in 2017 with a 110-point average, and still registered a 139 and 127 last year.
“The body is good now. All of those issues are fixed,” he told the Blues website last week.
“Training has also been really good – I haven’t missed anything yet. I’m looking forward to getting through to Christmas and then really getting going after that.”
Kreuzer finished with an 80-point average in 2018 but that included several injury-affected games including a 20 in his final appearance against St Kilda, when he played just 8 per cent of the game. That means he is seriously underpriced next season. Pick Kreuzer instead of Max Gawn and you have $260,000 more to spend somewhere else. Tempted?
Tom Rockliff (Port Adelaide) $405,900 midfielder
If Billings had SuperCoach players bashing their head against the wall last season, Rockliff was in a whole other league of frustration.
A scoring machine at Brisbane (he averaged 132 in 2014), he suffered one of the biggest falls in the AFL after switching to Port Adelaide.
Constant battles with injury and an uncertain role at a new club didn’t help, but Rocky just didn’t look like the same player. Even a late-season revival of sorts couldn’t save him from his lowest season average in a decade.
The silver lining? He’ll start 2019 cheaper than at any time in recent memory.
Rockliff is priced at roughly a 75-average which he should score in his sleep if he’s even 90 per cent fit. The midfield bull revealed after the 2018 season that he played most of his first year at the Power with shoulder problems, with his season called off after it popped out of its socket completely against West Coast in Round 21.
Rockliff is now easing his way back into pre-season training after post-season surgery that he hopes will allow him to attack the 2019 season from Round 1.
Will that mean a return to his high-scoring SuperCoach ways? We might wait and see.
Michael Hibberd (Melbourne) $398,700 defender
Another player who endured a frustrating 2018, battling to reach his heights of the previous season.
Hibberd averaged 99 points a game in 2017, which was no fluke after two years of 90-plus averages at the Bombers. Last year that figure plummeted to 73 points a game with his only century coming in the semi-final against Hawthorn (he scored 10 tons in 2018).
What happened? He missed a few games late in the year with a quad injury but seemed to play a similar role running off half-back. One apparent change was his move away from kick-in duties, but he is perfectly suited to new rules that allow all players to run out of the defensive goalsquare without tapping the ball on their boot.
That could mean a lot more points so watch his role closely in the pre-season.
The AFL trades set to deliver big SuperCoach bargains
Bailey Smith and Clayton Oliver could be huge SuperCoach steals at a new club in 2025. Which other names should be on the watch list? Here are the moves to watch.
AFL obsession to NBL addiction: How SuperCoach hooked me on hoops
I hadn’t watch the NBL since the Andrew Gaze and Shane Heal days. Now I’m taking my son to United games and watching Phoenix on Kayo because of one reason.