SuperCoach trade guide Round 19: GWS Giants Ian Hill, Lachie Whitfield top trade targets with finals in sight
Rowan Marshall is one of the form players in the AFL, but his SuperCoach price has soared by more than $180,000 in the past seven weeks. He’s expensive, but can you afford not to have the breakout Saint? TRADE GUIDE.
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Flexibility is crucial heading into SuperCoach finals.
Any coach who has played in previous seasons will tell you this is the point of the year where untimely injuries and late withdrawals are commonplace.
Just ask Shannon Hurn’s 54,368 owners, who were left scrambling when the West Coast captain pulled out before his side’s win over Melbourne on Sunday.
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If you had already used your two trades for the round and had no defensive cover, it meant copping a zero while others at least secured scores from rookies such as Griffin Logue (55) or Francis Watson (73).
With trades dwindling, the easiest way to avoid this scenario is having dual-position players to swing between roles.
The lack of premium defensive-midfield options makes this scenario difficult, however we have been blessed with quality forward-midfielders this year.
Four of the top five forwards this season are also classed as midfielders — Patrick Dangerfield, Josh Dunkley, Tim Kelly and Michael Walters.
Assuming you are holding at least three of this premium trio, GWS bubble boy Ian Hill should be in your trade sights this week as a midfielder.
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With consecutive 60s in his first two AFL games, Hill has shown he can provide adequate cover in the event of a spate of late-season injuries.
Trade him onto your midfield bench by parting with a player such as Dylan Clarke or Oskar Baker and you have the ideal scenario.
I’m sure you see where I’m going with this.
With Hill on your bench, you can cover the absence of a midfield premium — such as Nat Fyfe in Round 18 — by swinging Dangerfield, Kelly or Dunkley into the middle.
If you’ve got a scoring rookie on your forward bench such as Oliver Hanrahan, you can loophole the best score out of the young Hawk and Hill to maximise your overall score.
Of course, you also have the option to use Hill in your midfield eight, but it is the insurance he offers via a DPP swing with premium forwards which makes him much more valuable than his $117,300 price tag suggests.
If you downgrade Clarke or Baker and make more than $100,000, it should give you the impetus to target Hill’s teammate Lachie Whitfield, who has scores of 101 and 119 since returning from injury.
TOP TARGETS
Lachie Whitfield $521,600, def, average: 110.7, break even: 93
Whitfield looms as one of two must-have defenders for SuperCoach finals alongside Jake Lloyd, especially if Shannon Hurn’s calf injury sidelines him for more than a week. Since his return from a collarbone injury he has scored 101 and 119, yet dropped $42,500 due to a high break even. On recent form his price will start rising again this week. Upgrade Griffin Logue or Noah Answerth and don’t look back.
Ian Hill $117,300, fwd-mid, avg: 60, BE: -50
While he should generate some late-season cash, Hill’s trade importance is due to his versatility. Trade him in and use the examples listed above featuring Josh Dunkley, Patrick Dangerfield or Tim Kelly to cover any injuries which strike in the next month in midfield. In the worst-case scenario, he could provide a 50-60 score your finals opponent might not have.
Francis Watson $123,900, def, average: 73, BE: -72
Watson was a late inclusion for Shannon Hurn on Sunday and had 14 disposals and eight marks on his AFL debut. If the Eagles captain misses another week and you need to cover his absence, Watson is worth consideration. Just be mindful he’s almost certain to be squeezed out when Hurn returns.
Jack Macrae $629,000, mid, avg: 120.1, BE: 138
The Bulldogs ball magnet has one of the lowest ownerships of any of the premium midfielders at 40 per cent. If you’re serious about contending in finals, you’ll want Macrae in your team. Macrae has scored 116+ in his past six matches and averaged 132.6 during that stretch. He’s well worth the high price, which is more than $60,000 less than you would have paid in Round 1.
Clayton Oliver $584,900, mid, avg: 110.1, BE: 136
Oliver has caught fire in the past seven weeks, only scoring below 100 once and amassing 158 and 140 in two of his past three games. While his average of 110 wouldn’t justify paying almost $600,000, it’s Oliver’s three-round average of 124.3 which appeals. If he keeps this form up, he might be the difference in a finals match up.
Rowan Marshall $625,100, ruc, avg: 112.3, BE: 117
What a revelation the St Kilda ruckman has been this year. Since Round 11, his price has soared from $444,200 to $625,100 and he hasn’t scored less than 116. Only Josh Dunkley, Patrick Dangerfield and Travis Boak have a better average than Marshall of this year’s forwards and he has averaged 132.1 in the past seven games. He’s a legitimate captaincy option and takes on Sydney in SuperCoach grand final week. It shapes as a very handy draw considering debutant Hayden McLean was the Swans’ No. 1 ruckman against Fremantle.
Zach Merrett $492,500, mid, avg: 107.4, BE: 67
The first — and cheapest — of the two premium midfielders to consider this round. Merrett’s 59 from Round 16 has caused his price to fall below $500,000 despite averaging 107.4. The star Bomber has seven scores of 120+ and would be a perfect addition if your M8 spot is still being filled by a rookie such as his teammate Dylan Clarke. Essendon takes on Gold Coast this round, who Merrett scored 102 against last season.
Mitch Duncan $500,200, mid, avg: 107.2, BE: 61
The unassuming Cat is enjoying a brilliant campaign and is on track to average better than 105 for the third straight year. His most appealing feature is his low ownership of three per cent, which makes him one of the best point of difference players this season. Flag contender Geelong needs to rally in the run home and has games against Sydney, Fremantle, North Melbourne, Brisbane Lions and Carlton to come.
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CHOPPING BLOCK
Angus Brayshaw $382,600, mid, avg: 83.9, BE: 125
Sydney Stack $439,800, mid, avg: 82.2, BE: 119
Sam Walsh $434,800, mid, avg: 89.2, BE: 78
Dylan Clarke $297,200, mid, avg: 72.4, BE: 23
Noah Answerth $285,500, def-mid, avg: 56.7, BE: 56
Mabior Chol $253,500, fwd, avg: 72.4, BE: 24
Jordan Clark $321,100, def, avg: 59.9, BE: 89
It’s time to bite the bullet — if you haven’t already — with Brownlow Medal placegetter Brayshaw. An average of 84 won’t be enough for a midfielder come finals and his three-round average of 60.3 is a huge concern. If you can grab a premium midfielder to sit at M8 you could be 50 points a week better off. Stack has been one of the rookies of the year but will start to lose money due to his high break even, while Walsh still features in 79, 204 teams. If you have no choice but to punt a midfield rookie this week to free up cash, Clarke may need to be sacrificed. His five-round average of 66.4 is enough to provide cover, but if it gets you a premium in another position (Lachie Whitfield or Rowan Marshall) then make the move. Chol still has money to make but it’s questionable whether he makes the cut for Round 19 with Toby Nankervis in line to return for Richmond.
HOLD
Will Setterfield $324,500, fwd-mid, avg: 59.7, BE: 64
James Worpel $449,000, fwd-mid, avg: 90.5, BE: 56
Griffin Logue $277,300, def, avg: 73.6, BE: 61
Don’t underestimate the importance of dual-position players in the next month. As of midday Monday, Will Setterfield to Ian Hill was the second-most popular trade for this round. Setterfield is averaging close to 70 under caretaker coach David Teague and that score will come in handy in the result of a late withdrawal come finals. It pays to have insurance and a player such as Setterfield is perfect for that bench role. Depending on selection, Griffin Logue is worth holding for another week to see if he can return to the scoring heights of his first two games of 2019 — 93 and 103. The idea of luxury trading James Worpel to a player such as Rowan Marshall was nice. But if history tells us anything, it’s a player with Worpel’s fwd-mid swing will be required in the next month, even if you push him to F7 or M9 for cover.
BARGAIN BIN
Under $500,000
Ben Cunnington $499,700
Zach Merrett $492,500
Tim Kelly $491,100
Rory Laird $476,800
Tom Stewart $473,800
Bachar Houli $466,000
Under $450,000
James Worpel $449,000
Luke Ryan $442,900
Brodie Smith $434,500
David Mundy $430,200
Kade Simpson $385,400
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