SuperCoach Round 11 trade guide: Which bubble boy should you pick this week, Oskar Baker or Mitchell Hinge?
Most SuperCoaches hadn’t heard of Melbourne’s Oskar Baker or Brisbane Lion Mitchell Hinge a few weeks ago. This round, they’re the two rookies everyone wants to know about.
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Mid-season downgrade targets have been rare this year, but two obvious SuperCoach selections have presented themselves ahead of Round 11 — Mitchell Hinge and Oskar Baker.
Brisbane Lions defender Hinge has the lowest break even of the pair (-55) after scores of 56 and 73 in his opening two games.
Baker rallied in the second half against GWS on Sunday to finish with a score of 57 after 41 on debut.
If they didn’t share the Round 13 bye, you would need to give strong consideration to a double downgrade this week.
But with so many premiums missing in the same week as Hinge and Baker, you can realistically only choose one.
The decision could come down to your team structure and where you are choosing to downgrade. If it’s Michael Gibbons facing the chop, then go for Baker.
If you prefer Hinge, you might need to sacrifice a player with a Round 12 bye such as Port Adelaide’s Xavier Duursma.
Meanwhile, this is the week to start operation get Lachie Neale.
If you’re one of the 81,907 coaches with the Brisbane Lions ball magnet already in their midfields, relax while others clamber to bring Neale in after Round 13.
A season-low of 79 against his former side Fremantle on Sunday should ensure Neale — barring a monster score against Hawthorn or Carlton in the next two rounds — is available for less than $600,000 heading into Round 14.
The No. 1 scorer of the year by 70 points, Neale takes on St Kilda, Melbourne, GWS, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne and Hawthorn in the next six weeks after his bye.
The Lions then tackle Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Geelong and Richmond in the last month, a run home which gives him ample opportunity to retain his mantle as the topscorer of the season.
In order to turn a rookie such as Sam Walsh (Round 14 bye) into Neale, you’ll need about $200,000.
The first step to building your bank should be targeting either Brisbane Lions defender Mitchell Hinge or Melbourne midfielder Oskar Baker, who are both on the bubble this week.
A downgrade from players such as Jack Petruccelle, Michael Gibbons, Will Setterfield or Jack Scrimshaw will free up cash and leave you with a war chest to head toward a side flush with premiums — and headlined by Neale — by Round 15.
RAGE TRADES: WHO SHOULD YOU CHOP AHEAD OF ROUND 11?
LATE MAIL: TOP TRADE TARGET YOUNG FAILS TO FIRE
TOP TARGETS
Mitchell Hinge $123,900, Def, Avg 64.5, BE -55
The best of the Round 11 bubble boys, but he comes with the Round 13 bye. You have six trades between now and the dreaded week off to save yourself from a donut if you decide to bring in Hinge after his 73 against the Dockers on Sunday. He also scored 56 in his first game, so if that’s his low point he’ll be a perfect mid-season downgrade. Try to cash in players such as Michael Gibbons and Jack Petruccelle by using your team’s DPP swings.
Oskar Baker $123,900, Mid, Avg 49, BE -24
Baker rallied in the second half against GWS on Sunday, lifting his score to 57 after he was one of the lowest scorers on the ground at halftime. Like Hinge, he has a bye in Round 13 and you can only afford to get one of the two obvious bubble boys if your team is stacked with premiums with that week off. Melbourne’s lengthy injury list should ensure he has solid job security.
Darcy Fort $117,300, Ruc, Avg 78, BE -86
Still holding Reilly O’Brien? Unless you plan on using the Crows ruckman in Round 13 when Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy share the week off, look no further than Fort. He held his spot after an impressive debut, keeping Esava Ratugolea out despite Chris Scott flagging the key forward’s likely return. His return of 51 against the Suns is closer to what we should expect than his debut 105, but he’ll provide bench cover in the rucks.
Jade Gresham $361,100, Fwd, Avg 80.8, BE 23
One trade option not for the faint of heart. Gresham is the value pick of this week’s options after torching Carlton on Sunday with 29 disposals and six marks. It hasn’t been the breakout year Saints fans were banking on from Gresham yet, with only two hundreds and five of his scores below 80. But there’s no doubt the potential is there and an average of 80 is decent for a player with his price tag.
Lachie Whitfield $556,100, Def, Avg 116.6, BE 46
It’s almost now or never for Whitfield. The GWS star is heading back toward $600,000 after backing up his 170 against Carlton with 115 against Melbourne. He finished the game with 118 but was scaled down which meant he lost $300 in value. But his 46 break even will ensure that doesn’t happen again. Jump on now and you will benefit until his Round 14 bye.
Bachar Houli, $504,400, Def, Avg 106.7, BE 56
Few players are in the form Richmond’s rebounding defender Houli is. He has a three-round average of 116.7, five hundreds in seven games and hasn’t dropped below 70. Houli also doesn’t have a bye until Round 14 and is only in 7.4 per cent of teams. He had 37 possessions, six marks and five tackles against his former side Essendon.
Jeremy Cameron, $468,500, Fwd, Avg 98.9, BE 74
Cameron has bottomed out again as a result of his 29 against Hawthorn. His scoring otherwise this year has been that of a premium forward, producing five tons and eight scores of 85 or better. He’s scored 108 and 96 in the past two weeks despite going goalless against Carlton and kicking 3.2 against Melbourne. That suggests he doesn’t need to kick huge bags to amass scores of 100+. He should be on your radar due to his Round 14 bye.
Jake Lloyd $560,300, Def, Avg 115.2, BE 77
Waiting until Round 14 — after Lloyd’s bye — would be understandable if you have held off this long. Just be prepared you’ll be paying closer to $600,000 for the Sydney half-back flanker. If you plan accordingly, you can bank the extra $30,000-$40,000 you need in coming weeks. If you’ve already got Shannon Hurn and Lachie Whitfield, target Lloyd this week and bank two scores before his Round 13 rest.
Elliot Yeo, $587,800, Mid, Avg 105.4, BE 98
Eagles tackle machine Yeo has five successive scores of 115 or better and six of 114 or higher in his last seven matches. You’d be paying top dollar for a player with a Round 13 bye, so you would want to be confident the scoring he has displayed in the past six rounds is sustainable. The fact he’s still only in 3.4 per cent of teams could make him a valuable addition.
Josh Kelly, $645,500, Mid, Avg 122.1, BE 105
Forget whatever concerns you might hold about his history of soft-tissue injuries or the possibility of a rest in the second half of the year. Kelly has reminded us of his undeniable quality in the past three weeks with scores of 154, 131 and 148. If you’ve got enough cash in the bank to grab him, it should be a no-brainer. He could have the best average of any midfielder for the rest of the year, has the Round 14 bye and is still going up in price. Tick, tick, tick.
Lachie Neale, $619,000, Mid, Avg 126.6, BE 141
As above, start making plans to bring Neale in after Round 13. He’s already in more than 40 per cent of teams, but there’s a high chance he’ll be available for under $600,000 for those still targeting the prolific Brisbane midfielder. He has a break even of 141 this week and the only issue which may stop him being available for a discount in four weeks could be facing Carlton in Round 12. If he runs riot against the Blues his price will skyrocket again.
Travis Boak $515,400, Fwd, Avg 110, BE 123
Still the No. 1 forward of the season with an average of 110, Boak will be the top trade target for most coaches in Round 13 after his bye. If it wasn’t for a week off in Round 12, he’d be perfect for consideration this week. This is more a note to start planning to bring him in, as he should be available for about $500,000 after his bye thanks to two scores under 80 (77 and 79) in the past three weeks.
HOLD
Clayton Oliver $585,900, Mid
Noah Balta $305,200, Fwd
Xavier Duursma, $337,800, Def-Mid
Sam Walsh, $423,500, Mid
Marty Hore $396,500, Def
Tom Liberatore, $414,100, Mid
Jordan Clark, $274,700, Def
Oliver has a break even of 180 and will lose value in coming weeks after he became another Matt De Boer victim on Sunday, but trading premiums will only hurt your team in the long run. Balta has been a revelation in recent weeks and has more money to make, while Duursma’s 108 against Hawthorn should ensure he lasts until the end of the byes. Walsh’s break even is back to 79 after he scored 93 against St Kilda, while Hore (45) and Clark (45) should hit their break evens this week. Don’t move them on before Round 13 when they both have a week off. Hore is making a strong case to be a defensive keeper with an average of 86.8.
CHOPPING BLOCK
Will Setterfield $223,300, Mid-Fwd
Brodie Smith $438,300, Def
Matt Parker $236,300 Fwd
Tom Rockliff $477,400, Mid
Michael Gibbons $259,400 Mid
Jack Petruccelle $269,800, Fwd
Charlie Constable $342,800, Mid
Connor Rozee $402,200, Def-Fwd
Jack Scrimshaw $304,900, Def
You can afford to hold Carlton duo Will Setterfield and Michael Gibbons until their Round 14 bye, but Parker, Petruccelle, Rozee and Scrimshaw are prime trade options due to their early bye rounds. Brodie Smith has a break even of 100 but isn’t a must-trade unless you can turn him into Jake Lloyd or Lachie Whitfield. There were reports Charlie Constable was injured playing VFL at the weekend, so an AFL return appears unlikely. If Tom Rockliff is ruled out due to a hamstring injury, don’t hesitate to turn him into a top on-baller such as Josh Kelly.
BARGAIN BIN
Under $500k
Daniel Rich $492,000 Avg 99.8
Brayden Fiorini $491,600 Avg 100.8
Shane Savage $488,600 Avg 89.9
Stephen Coniglio $477,500 Avg 95.2
Caleb Daniel $473,900 Avg 99
Patrick Dangerfield $471,000 Avg 100.7
Jeremy Cameron $468,500 Avg 98.9
Isaac Heeney $450,500 Avg 92.1
Under $450k
Rowan Marshall $444,200 Avg 95
James Worpel $434,800 Avg 89.5
Nic Newman $427,100 Avg 90.9
Kade Simpson $426,800 Avg 75
Jade Gresham $361,100 Avg 80.8
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