SuperCoach risk vs reward picks: The rolls of the dice that can pay off in 2020
These are the picks that get the blood pumping, and can get your season off to a flying start. But buyer beware: there’s plenty of risk involved. See the dicey picks who could set your side apart.
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The KFC SuperCoach grand prize isn’t won by playing it safe, but how about a major roll of the dice that could lead to handsome rewards?
The kind of picks that really get the blood pumping.
These players often have a chequered injury history, or a reputation for reaching epic heights along with dreadful lows.
Some of these high-risk been placed on SuperCoach ‘never again’ lists due to owner frustration from previous seasons.
Well, we have thrown out the rule book here.
Here are the high risk options that could give SuperCoaches massive rewards in 2020.
Nic Naitanui (WC) $457,800 RUCK
Here is the epitome of a high risk, high reward selection. The dynamic ruckman has phenomenal impact when he’s on the field, recording 1.37 points per minute last season – more than any player in the competition. Unfortunately, he spent more time on the sidelines in recent seasons after undergoing two knee reconstructions since 2016. He has also always been used sparingly by the Eagles, often recording less than 70 per cent time on ground. The athletic Eagle comes at a tantalising price tag and averaged above 105 as recently as 2016. However, Naitanui is likely to be used alongside Tom Hickey in 2020, which could see his scoring take a hit.
Verdict: If Gawn misses Round 1, watch his ownership rise. A potential bargain if he can stay on the park, but can he go north of a 105 average?
Dylan Roberton (StK) $260,400 DEF
One of the leading contenders of this bunch. Roberton sent a scare through the football world when he collapsed during a match in Round 4 of 2018 due to heart problems. He has not played an AFL game since, but is on track to make a miraculous return to football. Roberton’s health is the number one priority in this scenario, but he looms as a SuperCoach steal if he can recapture his form of previous seasons. Roberton averaged 90.6 points per game in 2015 and 92.6 points in 2017 as a rebounding defender who often took the kick-ins.
Verdict: He is aiming to play in the upcoming Marsh Community Series and if he does, watch him closely.
Harley Bennell (Melb) $123.9k MID
The exciting talent suffered countless calf injuries at the Dockers after crossing from Gold Coast in 2015, playing just two matches in four seasons at the club. Now, Melbourne has pounced on the 27-year-old through the supplemental selection period despite a separate calf setback while training with the club. He appears to be some way off a Demons berth, but his form in previous seasons is inviting considering his bargain basement price. Bennell finished four seasons (2012-2015) in a row averaging more than 95 points per game, with a high of 101.7 in 2015.
Verdict: A player who has averaged more than 100 points for rookie price is nearly too good to be true. The issue will be when he can make his Melbourne debut, and whether he can string consistent games together.
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Matthew Kreuzer (Carl) $528,900 RUCK
It seems like decades ago that Matthew Kreuzer averaged close to 110 points per game in 2017. However, some would be shocked that the Blues ruckman averaged close to 100 points last season, including five scores above 118 – all in the back-half of the year. Kreuzer’s injury history is well documented, playing just one full season across his 12 year career, and he comes at a high price. But is he a risk worth taking?
Verdict: Far too expensive given his injury history.
Lance Franklin (Syd) $394.2k, FWD
Superstar Lance Franklin was burning up the track in November last year after injury curtailed his 2019 campaign. Two months later he was sent in for knee surgery and is currently in a race against time to be fit for Round 1. Franklin is coming off his worst SuperCoach season since 2006, averaging a mere 72.6 points and has just turned 33. But if he does end up being fit to play in Round 1 there is some upside, facing likely cellar-dwellers Adelaide, Carlton and Gold Coast within the first month.
Verdict: Don’t count him out.
Jack Darling (WCE) $458.9k FWD
Jack Darling is the No. 1 name on many SuperCoach ‘never again’ lists and with good reason. Back-to-back scores of 9 and 22 in the first six rounds of last season sent owners into disarray. And when many hit the trade button, Darling went on to post three tons in the next five weeks and another six 120-plus totals for the rest of the season.
Verdict: With West Coast set to be in frame yet again, Darling is worth some consideration – especially if you don’t mind roller-coasters.
Nakia Cockatoo (Geel) $148,200 FWD/MID
Like several players on this list, Nakia Cockatoo has been cruelled by injury. The 23-year-old has played just 12 AFL games since 2017, but star teammate Patrick Dangerfield has talked up the impact he will have this season, along with time in the midfield. His dual position status and the potential of time in the centre square bodes well for his scoring potential.
Verdict: Too cheap to pass up. Slot him in unless injury strikes.
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Grant Birchall (BL) $292,700 DEF
Birchall joins the Lions as a ready-made replacement for retired defender Luke Hodge, but the veteran has said he will spend more time in the midfield than his former premiership teammate. The veteran has played just eight games in the last three seasons but his three appearances in 2019 certainly caught the eye, registering 87 points in two of them. He averaged 84 points in his last full season in 2016 – can he get his body right at his new side?
Verdict: Probably a bit too pricey.
Joe Daniher (Ess) $270,400 FWD
Whatever you do – don’t start this man. Daniher has only just begun running without pain in the past week due to his troublesome groin and may not be sighted in the first of the season. Therein lies the risk. But when – or if – he features later in the season, the goalkicker remains somewhat underpriced. In saying that, he is unlikely to reach the heights of his 86 points average of 2017.
Verdict: Key forward with a horror injury history. Don’t even think about it.
Jack Watts (Port) $307,900 DEF
A largely forgotten player outside of Alberton, particularly in SuperCoach. Jack Watts was trialled at halfback during the pre-season and posted a solid score of 90 in Round 1, before suffering a broken leg in his next match. It is unclear whether he will step into the same role in 2020, but the sweeping distributor role appears to suit the accurate kicker. The former Demon turns 29 this year, so his best footy may not be behind him just yet.
Verdict: Darcy Byrne-Jones is likely to be their main choice across halfback and there are better options for less in defence. Assess his role in the pre-season – a high score could be tempting.