SuperCoach Investor: Expert guide to the rising and falling trade stocks after Round 1

RESIST the urge to purge your SuperCoach team of Round 1 flops, and the unknown Geelong midfielder who could be the key to trade plans. Your expert guide to rising and falling SuperCoach stocks.

Nic Naitanui works on works on a handball drill.

MUCH like the Tigers, there’s no sign of a premiership hangover at the SuperCoach Stock Exchange, which is open for business again for 2018.

There was one notable absentee, however, with trading halted on the stocks of Patrick Dangerfield following a hamstring niggle sustained in JLT 2.

NUMBER CRUNCH: WHAT WAS GAWN MISS WORTH?

EVERY CHEAPIE: ROUND 1 ROOKIE REVIEW

The news rocked the market but for those out there with a carefully balanced portfolio (and Tom Mitchell), there were no issues to be seen.

If you’ve managed to acquire the services of the best-performing rookies, pat yourself on the back, as your JLT due diligence is bound to reap extensive reward.

Our resident expert, Daniel Begala, casts his eyes across the state of play and examines the key decisions that lay ahead for those in the chase for the SuperCoach grand prize.

PENNY STOCKS

The mix of rookies that you adopt from the start of the season are as important, if not more, than the blue chip stocks in your SuperCoach portfolio.

Many coaches, including yours truly, will be regretting the decision to acquire the high-priced rookies (Cam Rayner, Aaron Naughton, Andrew Brayshaw, Paddy Dow, Luke Davies-Uniacke and Co) who all failed to fire in the first round.

They’re top-end talent, so give them another week before we pull the trade trigger. Remember prices won’t change until after Round 3.

My tip, however, is to downgrade them to the best available bottom-priced rookie (such as $117k Cat Lachlan Fogarty, currently in just 2 per cent of teams) and build your “war chest” should Patrick Dangerfield fire as soon as he returns from injury.

Keep the faith with high-priced rookies like Luke Davies-Uniacke ... for one more week.

Geelong youngster Lachlan Fogarty could help generate cash for other trades.

SPECULATIVE STOCKS

These are the stocks that will make or break your season.

They’re underpriced, often mature-aged and, of course, fraught with danger.

The picks of the bunch in Round 1 were Riley Bonner (119, $257K), Jack Graham (100, $269K), Nic Naitanui (113, $465K) and Stephen Coniglio (129, $452K).

If you don’t own these players, it’s time to hatch a plan (such as downgrading rookies) to insert these rocketing stocks into your portfolio on the eve of Round 3.

The SuperCoach Investor, although abroad in Indonesia, has his eyes fixed on the Power’s quarterback, Riley Bonner, who sliced through Fremantle like a warm knife through butter.

I’m also extremely bullish on Nic Naitanui, who played only 54 per cent of game time, yet reminded us of blue chip status with a well-timed 113.

As the saying goes, “when one door (Paddy Ryder) closes, another door (Naitanui) opens”. It’s time to acquire the most explosive ruckman in the competition.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS

They’re blue chip, so they’re expected to perform — right? Wrong.

Many reliable stocks, including Marcus Bontempelli (63), Dayne Zorko (32) and Nat Fyfe (75), failed to deliver despite their lofty reputations (and price tags).

But dispute the allure of the trade button, SuperCoach is a long game and you must exercise restraint.

They are stars and they will respond.

Low scores present an opportunity. Zach Merrett (17) and Zorko loom as midfield upgrade targets over the next month given their enormous break-evens.

Coaches will have the opportunity to acquire these underpriced stars for as little as $500,000, possibly less.

We call this phenomenon SuperCoach “arbitrage”.

Will Patrick Dangerfield fire immediately after his return? Picture: Peter Ristevski

DANGERWHO?

Patrick Dangerfield looms as one of the most spectacular points of difference (19 per cent ownership) you’ll encounter in SuperCoach.

With unrivalled scoring ability and of coming off a three-week break, Dangerfield will be at his ballistic best against the Hawks on Easter Monday.

Some coaches — the astute investors — managed to retain Dangerfield’s services by leveraging the benefits of the rolling lockout and a well-timed rookie performance.

Kudos to all 19 per cent of you, who stood firm and stand to benefit immensely over the long-term.

If you, like me, don’t boast the services of Dangerfield, it’s essential that you pay heed to his performances over the next fortnight.

I’m talking fine-tooth comb analysis, but mainly focusing on his break-even following the Cats’ Round 3 encounter with West Coast.

Dangerfield’s price won’t change until a week after most of the rest of our squad and we need to be ready when it does.