SuperCoach formguide: Top trade, captain picks for Round 10
UPDATE: IT’S the SuperCoach version of a solar eclipse with Todd Goldstein available at a bargain price for one week only. But stats say it’s not the week to dump Max Gawn. SUPERCOACH PODCAST
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IT IS the SuperCoach equivalent of a solar eclipse.
One big ruckman is rapidly travelling one way, while another is going just as quickly in the opposite direction.
And as you read this, both are in perfect alignment. But like when the moon passes between the earth and the sun, the moment is brief.
So it is with trading Max Gawn for Todd Goldstein.
Now, before you get all hot and bothered at the thought of trading one premium for another, let’s take a deep breath and consider the facts.
If you don’t have Goldstein, this is the cheapest you’ll get him. The North Melbourne colossus is a bargain buy at $574k, despite only one bad game — a 49 against the Dogs in Round 6.
For a man who started the season with a price tag of $695,100, it is a sizeable discount.
Goldstein is averaging 118 for the season and 127 in his last three. If you’re not one of the 77,251 coaches who have this man, you need to ask yourself: ‘Can you do any major damage in this game in 2016 without him?’
Then there’s Gawn. Incredibly, the bearded one is more expensive than Goldstein at $581k despite scores of 63 and 49 in the past fortnight and a 111 season average.
Has Gawn hit the wall? Has this loveable big man got a bit ahead of himself? Or is this just a blip for one of the game’s most improved players?
We don’t have long to think about it. Goldstein’s breakeven is 66, Gawn’s is a whopping 236. Like that eclipse, this is the moment.
Yes, the aim of the game is to get to full premium as soon as possible and you don’t do that by trading out a keeper like Gawn. But if you don’t have Goldstein, this is your time.
If you own the likes of Stef Martin ($458k) or Sam Jacobs ($465k) and don’t have Goldstein, the equation is far more simple. Move heaven and earth to get bridge that $110k — perhaps through trading in bubble boy midfielder Jacob Hopper ($193k) — and welcome Goldstein into your squad.
You may not get another chance.
— Sam Edmund
JUMP ON
Jacob Hopper (GWS) $193,800 mid
The SuperCoach dilemma of the week. Normally a midfielder on the bubble with a break-even of -64 would be a no-brainer but Hopper’s price tag makes us think twice. Downgrading a cash cow like George Hewett or Ryan Davis is effectively a sideways swap when the idea is to pocket $150,000-plus from these kind of trades. Hopper’s spot in the Giants line-up isn’t guaranteed with so many quality players on the list, but his scoring power can’t be questioned — he averaged 157 SuperCoach points a game at last year’s under-18 championships. One thing we do know is if you’re going to get him, this has to be the week.
Matt Priddis (WC) $502,800 mid
That sound you can hear is the Priddis train leaving the station. After bottoming out in price last week Priddis is still at a bargain price, but he won’t be after playing the Suns. Likely to finish the year as a top-10 scoring midfielder. Don’t miss out.
20 intercept possessions for Jeremy Howe since Rnd 7 as a defender - ranked No.1 at @CollingwoodFC. #SCPod @gilbertgardiner @al_superfooty
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) May 24, 2016
Todd Goldstein (NM) $574,800 ruck
The No. 1 ruckman in the game has somehow dropped $120k. It’s a big call but if you don’t have him, and you’re stuck with an underperforming big man like Stef Martin or Sam Jacobs, this might be your one and only chance. Break-even is 66.
Jeremy Howe (Coll) $455,900 def/fwd
Wildcard pick who could pay off or blow up in our faces. Howe has never averaged more than 85 for a season but he has scored 108, 135 and 104 in his past three games and is a key part of Nathan Buckley’s plans. Defenders are unreliable anyway. Take a punt!
JUMP OFF
Darcy Byrne-Jones (PA) $323,200 def
DBJ has ridden the SuperCoach rollercoaster, now it’s time to hop off. After flying out of the blocks and gaining almost $200,000 in five weeks, the Port Adelaide defender has hit the wall big time. Scores of 31 and 57 in his past two games mean he has to score 105 this week just to maintain his price. Downgrade him to Bulldog bubble boy Bailey Williams or turn him into a premium defender.
Mitch Brown (Ess) $312,600 fwd/def
It’s been in fits and starts but Brown has increased in value by $195,000 since Round 1 and now is the time to cash him in. He was superb last week with four goals but it’s the old stockmarket rule — sell high, buy low. With an average of 62 and a break-even of 75, this might be as expensive as Brown gets.
Brad Crouch (Adel) $312,200 mid
More than 12,000 coaches have stuck with Crouch in the hope he turns into a 100-point a week star. It’s time to give up on the dream. Even if he is picked this week his two most recent scores (51, 46) are no better than you would get from a $120,000 rookie. Turn him into Jacob Hopper or Rhys Mathieson and use the money to upgrade Brown or Byrne-Jones.
CAPTAIN, MY CAPTAIN
Matt Priddis v Gold Coast
If you’re unsure about trading in Priddis this week, this might help make up your mind. Priddis played the Suns twice last year for scores of 196 and 125. In six career games against the Suns he averages 131. Lock him in for Perfect 9.
Scott Pendlebury v Western Bulldogs
Pendles is back. After a slow start to the year he has exploded in the past three rounds, not dropping below 140 in that time. Averages 119 across his career against the Dogs, including 131 in his past three.
Luke Parker v North Melbourne
Looking for a Friday night vice-captain loophole candidate? Parker rebounded from a mini slump with 120 points last week and scored 130 against the Kangaroos last year. Dan Hannebery has been super consistent this year but his recent history against the Roos is more modest, averaging 102. But there’s no Ben Jacobs this time.
Todd Goldstein v Sydney
The standout Kangaroos option after a massive 173 last week. The Swans’ ruck division will put up a bit more resistance but Goldy scored 136 against them last year. Expect another big score.
Max Gawn v Port Adelaide
Speaking of ruckmen, it would be a brave move to put the C on Max after scores of 49 and 63 in the past two weeks. But he has the perfect opportunity to bounce back against a Port side playing Jackson Trengove as its NO. 1 ruck — that’s an 11cm advantage. Safest to put the VC on him and have a Plan B!
Patrick Dangerfield v Carlton
Danger had a rare downer last week against the Pies but expect him to bounce back in style on Sunday. He is still the No. 1 pointscorer this season with an average of 124 per round, and scored 130 in his only meeting with the Blues last season.
Other Perfect 9 picks
Jack Steven — averages 121 in his past three against Freo.
Nick Riewoldt — av 120 in past 3 v Freo. Scored 179 against the Dockers in 2014.
Rory Sloane — av 118 in past 3 v GWS.
Robbie Gray — av 126 in his past 3 v Melbourne.
Trent Cotchin — scored 151 last week and 136 against Essendon last year.
Gary Ablett — hasn’t played the Eagles since 2014 but fresh after a week off. Don’t write off the little master!
The Perfect 9 jackpot is now $70,000 — and it’s free to enter. PLAY NOW
Exclusive @championdata match-up stats - points conceded by position. Get on Max Gawn!#supercoach pic.twitter.com/G2dGhzW2bK
— SuperCoach AFL (@Supercoach) May 27, 2016
CHAMPION DATA MATCH-UPS
SuperCoaches that were disheartened with Max Gawn’s effort last week against the Lions could be in for a windfall this round as he prepares to face Port Adelaide.
The Power have given up the most points of any side to opposition ruckmen this season which is no real surprise considering they have gone in without a recognised ruckman. Gawn is also travelling interstate this round and considering he has already piled on 172 and 174 points in his travels, another massive score could be on the cards.
Kurt Tippett faces his biggest test of the season as he comes up against the might of Todd Goldstein tonight. With Tippett in career-best form, he won’t have it all his own way tonight, with the Kangaroos giving up the second-fewest points to ruckmen this season. His form at the SCG has been mixed, amassing at least 100 points in just one of four games.
ROOKIE WATCH
SuperCoaches traded in Darcy MacPherson in droves last week, but the Gold Coast youngster succumbed to a knee injury and will now be sidelined for several weeks. Considering he has only enjoyed one price rise, you won’t gain much by trading him out.
This week it’s all about bubble boy Jacob Hopper. His price is somewhat of a deterrent, but if you decide to trade him in you will be handsomely rewarded with a massive price hike. A cheaper alternative is Brisbane’s Rhys Mathieson, who was solid on debut with 59 points, winning eight contested possessions.
At the selection table we have been handed a massive boost, with popular cash cow Marcus Adams finally returning from a finger injury. Teammate Josh Dunkley has also been named on the extended bench, while fellow bubble boy Dougal Howard is also set to return. Bailey Williams is another trade-in option as he too will enjoy a price rise after this round.
On the flip side the Tigers have lost patience with Connor Menadue and dropped him, while Kaiden Brand has made way for Matt Spangher as was expected.
There are also several debutants to consider, with Gold Coast duo Jesse Joyce and Joshua Schoenfield both named for their first AFL match. The pick of this week’s debutants though is mature-aged defender Sam Collins, who has been named for the Dockers. He has impressed in the WAFL all season, recording six more intercept marks than any other defender in the competition, while ranking third overall for spoils.
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