SuperCoach AFL: Experts rate 11 breakout contenders for 2021
Melbourne’s Christian Petracca increased his KFC SuperCoach average by 36 last year. Our experts run the rule over 11 players who could take the next step in 2021.
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Nailing a breakout player is one of the greatest skills in KFC SuperCoach.
Just ask anyone who picked Christian Petracca at the start of last season after four years of hype and middling SuperCoach returns.
Petracca exploded, boosting his average from 81 points a game to 117.5 and gaining almost $200,000 in value to be one of the buys of the season.
Who will be the Petracca of 2021? KFC SuperCoach expert Tim Michell names 11 leading contenders.
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Josh Daicos (Coll) $442,200 MID | 2020 ave: 82.3
The son of a gun was one of the most-improved players in the AFL last season as his average surged from 53 KFC SuperCoach points a game in 2019 to 82.3. After featuring in 17 games across three seasons, 2020 was the first year Daicos found a niche in the Collingwood side as a wingman.
As The Phantom noted recently, Daicos’s efficiency is perfectly suited to KFC SuperCoach. He went at 60.4 per cent by foot last season and increased his average (albeit marginally) from 17.2 to 17.3 disposals a game. When you factor in shorter quarters, that shows Daicos has the scope to average premium KFC SuperCoach midfield numbers.
Now it’s about lifting his disposal average to more than 20 a game and the opportunity will certainly be there after Adam Treloar’s move to Whitten Oval and Tom Phillips departing for Hawthorn.
BREAKOUT LIKELIHOOD:
Tim Michell — 6/10
Al Paton — 8/10
The Phantom — 6/10
OWNERSHIP: 1.8 per cent
MORE: 11 PLAYERS YOU MUST PICK IN KFC SUPERCOACH
Connor Rozee (Port Adelaide) $377,200 FWD
Rozee seemed destined to announce himself as the next great KFC SuperCoach forward last season when he amassed scores of 125 and 145 in the opening two rounds. Yet his season average of 70.2 was 7.5 points less than his debut campaign and he only scored one hundred for the rest of the season. That was down to a nagging heel injury and being largely restricted to playing as a deep forward.
Rozee is the sort of high-impact player KFC SuperCoach is made for and a breakout is just a matter of time. Watch his mooted midfield minutes closely in pre-season and jump on if he isn’t stuck in the attacking 50 as he was for much of last season. He underlined his potential late in 2020 with totals of 109 and 95 against North Melbourne and Essendon respectively.
BREAKOUT LIKELIHOOD:
Tim Michell — 7/10
Al Paton — 6/10
The Phantom — 8/10
OWNERSHIP: 11.4 per cent
Luke Davies-Uniacke (North Melb) $432,800 MID | 2020 ave: 80.6
The Roos have put the onus on one of their top draftees to turn the potential he showed in the second half of last season into sustainable performances. From Round 9 onwards, Davies-Uniacke posted KFC SuperCoach scores of 97, 86, 70, 51, 129, 72 and 93.
His 23-disposal, five-clearance game against Port Adelaide was the most encouraging of his short career and gave a glimpse of the talent which prompted North Melbourne to part with pick No. 4 in the 2017 draft.
He’s an awkward price in KFC SuperCoach but has the talent to produce a similar breakout to Jy Simpkin last year. How David Noble splits the midfield minutes between Davies-Uniacke, Ben Cunnington, Simpkin, Jed Anderson, Trent Dumont and top draftees Will Phillips and Tom Powell might determine just how big his jump in 2021 is.
BREAKOUT LIKELIHOOD:
Tim Michell — 5/10
Al Paton — 7/10
The Phantom — 6/10
OWNERSHIP: 1.6 per cent
Jack Lukosius (GC) $430,800 DEF | 2020 ave: 80.2
Playing regularly as an intercept defender, Lukosius ticks a lot of the boxes KFC SuperCoaches look for as he prepares for his third AFL campaign. The Suns young gun boosted his average from 50.6 to 80.2 KFC SuperCoach points last season — averaging 16.4 disposals, 1.1 intercept marks and 4.6 intercept possessions per game.
One of Lukosius’s great strengths is his ability to hit a target by foot, going at 69.5 per cent kicking efficiency in 2020.
The Suns have Charlie Ballard and Sam Collins to play on key forwards, allowing Lukosius to play with greater freedom in the back half. Could he emerge as a gun KFC SuperCoach defender in the mould of James Sicily, who launched from a 73.3 average in 2017 to 105.1 in 2018?
BREAKOUT LIKELIHOOD:
Tim Michell — 6/10
Al Paton — 8/10
The Phantom — 8/10
OWNERSHIP: 3.1 per cent
Oliver Florent (Syd) $408,300 MID | 2020 ave: 76
Florent took small steps toward premium status last season as his average jumped from 68.8 to 76 KFC SuperCoach points. This was despite his average possessions being down from 19.2 to 16.4 in 2020.
The spike in Florent’s numbers came from his inside-50s (3.6 to 4.2 a game) and clearances (2.7 to 2.8). This was helped by an increase in the number of centre bounces he attended due to Isaac Heeney and Josh Kennedy missing significant periods of the season.
Going into his fifth season, the 22-year-old looms as a key member of a Sydney midfield in transition. James Rowbottom was the other player whose CBAs went up when Kennedy and Heeney missed matches. Both are worthy of a look in pre-season, when coaches should assess their role as potential midfield PODs.
BREAKOUT LIKELIHOOD:
Tim Michell — 6/10
Al Paton — 5/10
The Phantom — 5/10
OWNERSHIP: 0.3 per cent
WARNING: PLAYERS TO AVOID IN KFC SUPERCOACH
Isaac Quaynor (Coll) $405,300 DEF | 2020 ave: 75.4
Collingwood fans are bullish about Quaynor’s development and six of his nine matches last season resulted in KFC SuperCoach scores between 79 and 101. One of the games he failed to reach 80 was Round 10 against Sydney, when he suffered a horror leg injury.
Quaynor’s kicking efficiency of 82.4 per cent last year and average of 4.9 intercept possessions a game are the bedrock of a future KFC SuperCoach premium. The obvious question mark is whether Quaynor, Jeremy Howe and Brayden Maynard will share too many points for the rising Pie to go to the next level.
BREAKOUT LIKELIHOOD:
Tim Michell — 7/10
Al Paton — 6/10
The Phantom — 4/10
OWNERSHIP: 1.0 per cent
Jack Scrimshaw (Haw) $399,600 DEF | 2020 ave: 74.4
James Sicily’s knee injury opened the door for a new KFC SuperCoach defensive king to emerge at Hawthorn, and Scrimshaw’s scoring went through the roof in the latter rounds of 2020.
The former Sun averaged 60.4 in his first five matches last season before emerging as a potential KFC SuperCoach star with an average of 82.9 from Round 11 onwards. After Sicily went down in Round 12, Scrimshaw scored 91, 93, 118 and 80 in consecutive matches.
He had a season-high 22 disposals against both Essendon and Adelaide during that stretch and six intercept possessions a game.
The Hawks’ backline is expected to be under siege for much of 2021 and that will give Scrimshaw plenty of opportunity to build on a promising finish to last season.
BREAKOUT LIKELIHOOD:
Tim Michell — 7/10
Al Paton — 6/10
The Phantom — 7/10
OWNERSHIP: 0.9 per cent
Will Day (Haw) $384,400 DEF | 2020 ave: 71.5
If not Scrimshaw, then second-year defender Will Day looms as the player to step into the void left by Sicily.
Day was one of the top cash cows last year, surging from a starting price of $153,300 to finish the campaign at $344,900. While his best score of the campaign was 92 on debut, Day’s best run coincided with Sicily’s injury.
A consistent rookie who never dropped below 57 and scored 57-67 in eight of his 11 games, Day averaged 73.3 from Round 11. He takes kick-outs for the Hawks and every designated kick-in taker will benefit from an extra 5m to play with this season.
BREAKOUT LIKELIHOOD:
Tim Michell — 6/10
Al Paton — 7/10
The Phantom — 6/10
OWNERSHIP: 1.5 per cent
REVEALED: TIM MICHELL’S NEW-LOOK SUPERCOACH TEAM
Tom Green (GWS) $351,400 | 2020 ave: 72.7
No potential breakout list is complete without The Phantom’s favourite. Green is underpriced after featuring in six games in his debut season. He left a huge impression on KFC SuperCoaches with a score of 119 in Round 17 when he had 30 possessions (21 contested) against Melbourne in Round 17.
Leon Cameron has been a KFC SuperCoach nemesis for years, but any pre-season indication Green is set for a prominent midfield role will make him one of the most sought-after mid-pricers of 2021.
Clayton Oliver averaged 70.3 in his first season and 111.5 in his second. Green has the talent to replicate that spike, although anything above 100 would be a great result from a low starting price.
BREAKOUT LIKELIHOOD:
Tim Michell — 8/10
Al Paton — 6/10
The Phantom — 9.99/10
OWNERSHIP: 7.5 per cent
Cameron Rayner (Bris) $392,900 FWD | 2020 ave: 73.1
The No. 1 draft pick from 2017 has never been a huge ball-winner, but as he edges toward punch-hitting in the midfield he will become more of a factor in KFC SuperCoach.
Rayner has never averaged more than 13.5 disposals a game, which he did in his debut season. But his tackle numbers (3.2 a game) were a career-high last year and his 1.4 clangers a game was a career-best.
He still needs to be tally more possessions to have any chance of emerging as a premium forward and his starting price is higher than any mark he reached last season. His highest price in 2020 was $387,900 after finishing the season with scores of 80, 125, 36 and 114. Midfield pinch-hitters (think Jordan De Goey) are not traditionally great KFC SuperCoach scorers.
BREAKOUT LIKELIHOOD:
Tim Michell — 4/10
Al Paton — 3/10
The Phantom — 2/10
OWNERSHIP: 1.6 per cent
Oscar McInerney (Bris) $443,400 RUC | 2020 ave: 82.5
McInerney set the foundation for a rise to KFC SuperCoach stardom in the second half of 2020 when he assumed the No. 1 ruck mantle at Brisbane from Stefan Martin. The 205cm ruckman lifted his average from 67.8 in 2019 to 82.5 last season, averaging 92 points from Round 9 onwards.
Losing his DPP status (he was listed as a RUC-FWD last season) is a blow, but all the signs are there to suggest McInerney can become one of the best-scoring ruckmen of 2021. He’s unlikely to reach the heights of Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy, but an average of 100-plus is certainly possible. Expect his time on ground to increase significantly after Martin crossed to the Western Bulldogs.
BREAKOUT LIKELIHOOD
Tim Michell — 7/10
Al Paton — 8/10
The Phantom — 7/10
OWNERSHIP: 2.4 per cent
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