Ranking the mid-price players in SuperCoach 2019
It’s the year of temptation. More players in the treacherous mid-price range are putting up their hand for SuperCoach selection than ever. Who should we pick? 61 PLAYERS RATED
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It’s the year of temptation.
It feels like we say this every year, but this season there are more players available in the treacherous SuperCoach mid-price range (roughly $250,000-$500,000) than ever before.
These players are so tempting because they offer the possibility of picking an elite scoring player for up to $300,000 less than you would fork out for a top-priced premium like Nat Fyfe or Sam Lloyd.
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Prices are based on 2018 performances so when picking a mid-pricer you’re looking for a big spike in scoring from last year. If a top-line player was hampered by injuries (and is now fully fit), a role change or other factors you think they can overcome, you could be on to a bargain. The other category of mid-pricers is younger players usually entering their third or fourth season who are ready to jump to a new level of scoring.
A warning must be issued here that most mid-price picks don’t work out. We usually look back halfway through the year and realise they are mid-priced for a reason. Is this the year that bucks the trend?
If you want to take a punt, here are my rankings of the best mid-price picks in each position — there are 61 in all. Don’t go nuts but I recommend picking a couple to set your team apart and make the season more fun — there’s nothing like being able to say “I tipped this!” when your bold starting pick pays off.
DEFENDERS
1. Zac Williams (GWS) $407,800
Outstanding value for a player set to average 95-plus. Was on the verge of becoming a premium when injury derailed his 2018 season, but returned in the finals and scored 117. Dominated the Giants’ first JLT game before copping a slight ankle knock and sitting out game two. Assuming he’s named in Round 1, lock him in.
2. Brodie Smith (Adel) $332,500
Burst out of the blocks in the JLT Series, burning opponents with his run off half-back and taking plenty of kick-ins. A bit of a rollercoaster who has a career-best average of 93.5 in 2014 but looks too hot to pass up.
3. Alex Witherden (Bris) $455,000
Averaged 80-plus in a brilliant debut season then consolidated in year two. Is he ready to jump to a premium this year? JLT Series was a bit underwhelming (scoring 66 and 76) but kick-in rules will help.
4. Darcy Moore (Coll) $239,400 Def/Fwd
Remarkable we are even considering a player who failed to finish multiple matches last season as he battled recurring hamstring problems. He’s super cheap and has excelled in the pre-season as an intercepting defender, scoring 79 and 97 and taking more kick-ins than any other player. But the facts are he has scored over 100 just twice in a 54-game career and has a highest career average of 61.5. Could be a season-defining pick.
5. Callum Mills (Syd) $428,900
Smack bang in the breakout window, the Swans Academy star only needs to be moved into the midfield on a full-time basis to become a SuperCoach stud. Come on, Horse.
6. Jordan Ridley (Ess) $233,100
There were positive signs in three games as a rookie last year but Ridley has gone to a new level in the pre-season. In fact, he was Essendon’s best performer in the JLT Series from a SuperCoach point of view, scoring 97 and 94. He can’t keep it up in the real stuff, can he?
7. Jayden Short (Rich) $465,600
Massive jump in scoring last year and the Tigers’ kick-in specialist has more room for growth. Is it enough to make him a keeper? An average around 90-95 seems most likely. Loves to sneak forward and kick a long goal.
8. Nic Newman (Carl) $394,100
A SuperCoach favourite when Sydney plucked him from the VFL a couple of years ago then fell out of John Longmire’s plans. Scored 97 in a lucrative playmaking role in JLT1, but took a back seat to Kade Simpson in JLT2 which raised a big red flag.
9. Shane Savage (StK) $481,300
Long-kicking defender who is a lot cheaper than when many SuperCoaches bought - and were burnt by - him last year. Loves a kick-in and scored 93 and 102 in the JLT Series. A massive point of difference in just 0.6 per cent of teams.
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10. Harris Andrews (Bris) $480,100
Posted premium numbers in a purple patch last season before being ironed out by Jeremy Cameron. A rare find in SuperCoach - a high-scoring key-position defender - he scored 87 and 106 in the JLT Series. The biggest concern is Chris Fagan is flirting with playing him as a forward, which would crucify his scoring opportunities.
11. Wayne Milera (Adel) $433,100
Breakout candidate is on an upward trend after being moved to a playmaking role across half-back in the second half of last season. His second JLT game was insane (29 disposals at 100 per cent efficiency). Expect improvement but how many Crows defenders can score over 100 each week?
12. Andrew McGrath (Ess) $384,300
Posted huge numbers as a midfielder in his under-18 season and looks set to play in the middle more ... but then we thought that last year. In 16 per cent of teams, but I’d wait another year or two.
13. Aaron Francis (Ess) $350,900
Intercept marks are great for SuperCoach and Francis is great at them. Lots of upside but this is a seriously awkward price. His JLT Series was OK (85, 61). Likely to improve but you’ll probably have to trade him at some stage.
14. Ryan Clarke (Syd) $355,400
A big ball-winner as a junior and should get more opportunities after being traded from North Melbourne to the Swans, but he’s in SuperCoach no-man’s land in terms of price. Scored a very promising 109 in JLT2 but it’s hard to see him improving enough to become a keeper or making enough cash to justify a starting spot.
15. Heath Shaw (GWS) $492,400
Former favourite Jumped back into the SuperCoach conversation with 128 points in the Giants’ first JLT game. Once scored over 200 in a game so can’t be ignored but it’s a few years since we’ve seen regular 90-plus returns.
16. Michael Hibberd (Melb) $398,700
Fell off a cliff last season and burnt plenty of SuperCoaches but should rebound from his lowest average since 2012, especially if he takes over kick-in duties. But once lost trust is hard to regain and Christian Salem may have taken over his playmaking role.
17. Luke Ryan (Frem) $489,900
Former VFL gun who has been a solid scorer for the Dockers. He took 107 kick-ins last season and played on once. If that number goes up so will his scores, but it’s hard to get too excited about him.
18. Christian Salem (Melb) $445,400
Max Gawn’s hot tip as the Demons’ big improver this season is an elite distributor who is likely to spend more time on a wing. Consistency is his biggest challenge. Scored 103 and 76 in the JLT Series.
19. Hayden Crozier (WB) $428,900
Made a slow start at his new club but found his groove late in the season, averaging an impressive 97 over the final nine rounds. Would be a brave move after scores of 60 and 85 in the JLT.
20. Bailey Williams (WB) $441,600
If he becomes a full-time midfielder his scores, and price, should head north but it would take guts to trust Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge.
21. Bachar Houli (Rich) $399,600
See entry for Heath Shaw but $100k cheaper. Houli has been a standout at pre-season training and 35 disposals against Melbourne shows he still has what it takes. But his highest career average is 94. And he’s 30.
22. Hamish Hartlett (Port) $349,200
Ticks a few boxes as an attacking defender who kicks it a lot and comes in underpriced after injury ruined his 2018 season. But he has never been a top-line SuperCoach scorer and injury niggles ruled him out of the JLT Series. Given his injury history, he has to be a no.
23. Brandon Ellis (Rich) $387,500
Flopped last year but offers much more value this time around. Has been training as a midfielder and the role of wingman could be back in vogue, but needs to win back his spot in the Tigers’ best 22 first.
24. Kade Kolodashnij (Melb) $363,700
Looked a SuperCoach special when he averaged almost 90 in his second season as a Sun before his career was derailed by injuries and form issues. Gets a fresh start at the Dees but hasn’t been sighted in the pre-season comp as he tries to get his body right. Can’t be trusted.
25. Dylan Roberton (StK) $297,600
Looked in great nick returning from a heart issue but has had another scare and made the sensible call that his health comes first. Won’t play this season.
MIDFIELDERS
1. Tom Liberatore $300,400
Personifies the phrase “high risk, high reward”. Libba has proven he can score at a premium level in SuperCoach - averaging 107 and 110 in 2013-14 - and is dirt cheap after wrecking his knee in Round 1 last year. But coaches who had him in their side when that happened don’t need reminding that question marks over his body, and role in the team, mean regular high scores are far from guaranteed. JLT returns (111, 87) are very encouraging.
2. Brad Crouch (Adel) $418,000
Finding the footy - and scoring in SuperCoach - has never been a problem for Crouch, as he demonstrated with a game-high 118 and 124 in Adelaide’s two JLT matches. Unfortunately, injuries have cursed him throughout his career. If you pick him, have a plan if (when?) he breaks down.
3. Dom Sheed (WC) $394,100
When I started writing this list a couple of weeks ago he was near the bottom of the midfielders, but he’s rocketed up the rankings after scoring 144 and 134 in the JLT Series. That wasn’t a total fluke - he scored 130, 105 and 116 in the Eagles’ three 2018 finals. But his spike came during Andrew Gaff’s suspension and he’ll be back in three rounds. If you’re picking on form, he’s the man.
4. Tim Taranto (GWS) $481,600
Added 18 points to his average in his second season and is set to explode in year three if his pre-season numbers are anything to go by - 33 disposals, 10 marks and 120 points against the Swans in JLT1 and 96 in game two to back up a best-on-ground intra-club effort. Dylan Shiel’s departure creates a vacancy in the GWS midfield and Taranto is ready to fill it. One word of caution - he surpassed 100 points in just seven of 21 games last year. A favourite of The Phantom.
5. Tom Rockliff (Port) $405,900
Is Rocky back? Collected an insane 41 disposals and 170 points in JLT2 to tempt coaches who put a line through him after a horror 2017. But there was barely any defensive pressure in that game and I’d be waiting to see how he goes early before committing. Can always trade him in after Round 2 before his price changes.
6. Anthony Miles $342,000
Former Tiger posted big numbers in the VFL and his returns in limited appearances at AFL were pretty handy, too. Now at Gold Coast where he should get a lot more game time in the midfield, but JLT scores of 68 and 35 are cause for concern.
7. Dylan Shiel (Ess) $487,000
A monty to improve on his 90 average last season and will probably land around the 98-102 he averaged from 2015-17. That makes him good value but you can probably do better.
8. Jack Viney (Melb) $449,500
Brilliant return from injury in last year’s finals inspires hope of regular repeats of the 117 he scored in his first AFL game back in 2013. Contested game style is well suited to SuperCoach scoring but you would want to see an uninterrupted pre-season and unfortunately Viney hasn’t had that as the Demons take an ultra-cautious approach with any minor niggle. Not ideal.
9. Aaron Hall (NM) $389,200
Still famous in SuperCoach for his flying start to the 2016 season when he scored 129, 124, 134 and 114 over the first four rounds. Went on to average 96 that year and 93 in 2017 before dropping to 80 last season. A return to higher scores beckons at a new club but a knee injury in the first JLT game (and 60 points in the second) makes it hard to back him in from the start.
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10. Hugh McCluggage (Bris) $416,800
Former No.3 draft pick is a classy ball user who has breakout season written all over him. But with so many bargains on offer who have the runs on the board, it’s hard to pick a kid in his third season. Scored 103 in JLT1 against an undermanned Hawthorn but just 47 in game two.
11. Dom Tyson (NM) $411,000
Fell down the pecking order in the Melbourne midfield but should jump back up the hierarchy at the Kangaroos. No-fuss ball-winner should outperform his price but would have to beat his career-best season (94 average in 2014) to really pay off.
12. Dan Hannebery $326,100
Was one of the top midfielders in SuperCoach just two years ago but last season his stocks plummeted, playing just 14 games for an average of 60 - his worst figures since his debut season. That means he’s very cheap if he can get back to somewhere near his best. That’s a big ‘if’, and relied on a clear run with injury. Unfortunately, Hannebery is managing a hamstring issue and we’re not sure when we’ll see him in Saints colours. Cross him off.
RUCK
1. Shane Mumford (GWS) $320,200
Mummy has the SuperCoach runs on the board, averaging over 100 points three times in his career and 99 as recently as 2016. But his output is hard to predict given he’s coming back at age 32 after a year in retirement. Also don’t forget he’s suspended for the first two rounds, so you’ll need a scoring rookie on the bench to avoid copping zeros on the field those weeks. Still the best option in his price range.
2. Scott Lycett (Port) $441,200 ruck/fwd
No.2 with a bullet after scoring 122 in Port’s JLT Series win against the Kangaroos. Scored OK as part of a ruck duo at the Eagles and if you pick him you’d be hoping he spends more time in the ruck and Ken Hinkley plays Paddy Ryder forward. Might make more sense as a third or fourth forward to switch-hit with a DPP like Patrick Bines ($102,400) on your ruck bench. In that role he could cover for Mumford early.
2. Tim English (WB) $310,600
SuperCoach history says the No.1 ruck has to score almost by default. English has the Bulldogs ruck job to himself after Tom Campbell packed his bags for Arden St in the off-season, and the former string bean has spent some time in the gym. Scored 85 in JLT2 but in nine AFL games his highest SuperCoach score is 78.
3. Nathan Vardy (WC) $306,400 ruck/fwd
Likely to share ruck duties at the Eagles this year with ex-Saint Tom Hickey after the departure of Lycett and another injury to Nic Naitanui. But SuperCoach has never really been his go - since 2011 his season averages are 54, 56, 69, 78, 61, 68, 63. Would you be happy with that?
4. Lewis Pierce (StK) $235,600
An injury to Billy Longer opened the door for Pierce, who has been on the Saints list for seven years but played just four games. Unfortunately, an untimely concussion early in St Kilda’s first JLT game robbed us of a chance to see what he can do.
5. Sam Naismith (Syd) $251,400
Was a popular candidate for a cheap second ruckman in some SuperCoach circles over summer but has now been ruled out of the early rounds of the season.
FORWARDS
1. Jack Billings (StK) $437,600
How is he this high? Many SuperCoaches (including this author) swore to never pick Billings again after he bombed badly last year, but it’s a new season and pre-season signs are positive the No.3 draft pick could finally fulfil his potential as an attacking wingman. If he can conquer his goalkicking demons he could be a great pick.
2. James Worpel (Haw) $395,700
Leading candidate for extra midfield minutes after Tom Mitchell’s season-ending injury, and the Hawks love his clearance work. But it’s a lot to ask a nine-game player to produce premium numbers. JLT Series scores (85, 73) may have been better than they look given he played only 60 per cent of game time against the Tigers.
3. Jack Darling (WC) $471,100
It’s too much to expect a repeat of his mid-season purple patch last year when he scored 132, 125 and 181 in successive weeks, but scores of 101 and 96 in JLT1 suggests he could still be a value selection. The stats say Josh Kennedy’s return from injury won’t hurt his output.
4. Jordan De Goey (Coll) $476,400
Dynamic player who could be anything. Likely to play mostly as a deep forward which limits his ability to rack up big possession tallies but his ability to turn a game with a big clearance or goal will mean some big scores, although there will probably be some small ones as well. Missed the JLT Series with a foot sprain but the Pies say he’ll play in Round 1.
5. Darcy Moore (Coll) $239,400 def/fwd
See his profile under defenders. You can pick him at either end if you’re brave/crazy enough to start him.
6. Toby Greene (GWS) $354,600
Greene recorded the worst SuperCoach numbers of his career last season as injury restricted him to just seven games. Made his first appearance of the year against the Crows last week, playing just 32 per cent of the game but racking up 12 disposals (six clangers) in that time. Is it enough to back him in? Boom or bust selection.
7. Mitch Robinson (Bris) $496,600 fwd/mid
Has been a solid SuperCoach performer for a decade and his average of 91.5 last year was the second-best of his career. Can he go higher? Scored 102 and 115 in the JLT Series and guaranteed to keep your season interesting.
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8. Christian Petracca (Melb) $442,600
Has talent to burn and we should stop waiting for him to become a full-time midfielder - the Dees just have too many good ones already. It doesn’t mean he can’t score well though, as shown by scores of 96 and 90 in the JLT Series. In 7 per cent of teams.
9. Luke Dahlhaus (Geel) $418,300 fwd/mid
Averaged 90-plus four years in a row before tumbling to a 77 average last year. Has a fresh start at Geelong where it will be even tougher to get a shot in the midfield, but a 109 against Essendon in the JLT Series shouldn’t be ignored.
10. Caleb Daniel (WB) $418,500
A forward in SuperCoach but likely to play at the other end of the ground. He was moved into defence late last season where he used his elite decision-making to score 100, 120, 75 and 112 in the last four rounds. Mixed JLT returns (105, 52).
11. Jack Higgins (Rich) $392,700
A second-year SuperCoach spike is rare but not unheard of and the energetic Tiger has a lot going for him, including the likelihood of more midfield time and record-breaking junior statistics. Scored a tempting 99 against Hawthorn in JLT2 but that included three goals. If he doesn’t make it at least he’ll have fun trying.
12. Josh J Kennedy (WC) $397,800
The Eagles are keeping him in cotton wool until Round 1 due to a foot problem, which is frustrating if you want some match fitness but does keep a potential bargain off the radar if you’re looking for a sneaky point of difference. His 73-point average last year was his lowest in six years so he is seriously underpriced if he can return to full fitness. Early fixture appeals.
13. Michael Walters (Frem) $476,800 fwd/mid
Superbly talented forward who has teased with stints in the midfield. There should be more opportunities without Lachie Neale in the side but he burnt plenty of coaches last season (av 88). Will they take the plunge again?
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14. Brandan Parfitt (Geel) $434,300
Burst on to the scene last year with five 100-plus scores including a 168 against the Saints. Chris Scott has flagged fresh blood in the Geelong midfield and Parfatt is at the front of the queue. Breakout candidate who scored 89 and 59 in the JLT Series.
15. Tom Lynch (Rich) $425,600
Scored well (average about 85-90) as a key forward target at Gold Coast and should do even better in a top-four team. Has taken time to recover from knee surgery that ended his 2018 season early - can he get back in time to face Carlton, a team he scored 180 against (eight goals) in Round 2 last year?
16. Taylor Walker (Adel) $343,500
If the Crows improve so will the Texan, who had a year to forget in 2018 - which makes him dirt cheap in SuperCoach. Key forwards are always dicey selections, but you could do worse.
17. Jamie Elliott (Coll) $280,300
Has never been a SuperCoach stud but if he could average mid-80s as he did in 2014 that would be enough for a significant price rise. Needs to stay fit until the byes to be a worthwhile pick. Can he do it?
18. Chad Wingard (Haw) $481,100
Teased with his talent at Port Adelaide and if anyone can turn that into consistent SuperCoach output, it’s Clarko. The prospect of more midfield time is tempting but a calf injury has derailed his pre-season and makes it very hard to start with him.
19. Joe Daniher (Ess) $277,800
Remember when he kicked 65 goals in a season? That was just two years ago. Hugely underpriced if he can get back to that level but has suffered another injury setback and will miss the opening rounds which rules him out for us.
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