Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako reveals his SuperCoach squad
Dustin Martin, Patrick Cripps and Clayton Oliver all feature in Champion Data’s SuperCoach expert Fantasy Freako’s starting squad — plus a young Hawk in just 10 per cent of teams. SEE HIS TEAM
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With the JLT Community Series done and dusted for another year, our attention now turns to Round 1.
Historically, one of the biggest mistakes SuperCoaches have made is pay too much attention to pre-season scores. For example, just because Tom Rockliff had 41 disposals and scored 170 points doesn’t make him an automatic pick. He could very well get back to his best, but we can’t forget his inconsistencies over recent seasons.
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Likewise, if a player puts in two sub-par pre-season performances, it shouldn’t diminish his fantasy worth. If there are underlying reasons behind the numbers, such as a recent return from injury, a change in role or reduced game time, then you can take these into account.
A “bandwagon pick” can unravel your season, like Heritier Lumumba in 2015. He looked like gold over the pre-season, averaging 120 points, but he returned to his norm once the season kicked off (season average 63.5).
As we turn our attention to the season-opener, below is the team I currently have in place for Round 1, but that could always change depending on team selections.
I always adopt the guns and rookies team structure, but, in saying that, there is always room for at least one mid-priced or underpriced option. I’m also a strong advocate for balance across all positions, and this is a strategy I have always adhered to.
DEFENDERS
Structure: One premium, one potential breakout, one underpriced and the rest are rookies.
As I have outlined in previous articles, defenders must tick all the boxes and not just that of the kick-in role. There are plenty of defenders that rack up decent scores without kick-in duties, with Rory Laird one case in point.
After owning Jake Lloyd from Round 1 last season, I can’t fit him into my current structure. He will no doubt put up decent scores, but at this stage he’s an upgrade target.
I have opted for the ever-reliable Laird to lead my defence instead, with Alex Witherden and Zac Williams also earning selections. In the case of Witherden, he’s slightly cheaper than Lloyd was in 2018, so I’m hoping for a similar spike from the young Lion. Williams’ resting for the final JLT Series match isn’t ideal, but I’m willing to back him in at this stage.
I have also been seduced by the performances of Brodie Smith, so he comes into my team ahead of Dylan Roberton. Smith hasn’t missed a beat, playing on from six of the seven kick-ins he has taken in the JLT Series, while also ranking fourth in the league for total metres gained. Sam Collins and Jordan Clark round out my starting defence.
I’m still bullish on Collins, despite Rory Thompson suffering a season-ending knee injury. The Suns could hand Collins more defensive responsibility, but his elite intercept play should continue to shine, as it did against the Swans when nine of his 10 disposals were won from intercepts.
Jack Scrimshaw and Xavier Duursma are tentatively on my bench.
MIDFIELDERS
Structure: Four premiums, one mid-price and the rest are rookies.
This is where the bulk of your scoring is done, which is why I’ve targeted key accumulators. Jack Macrae was always going to be in my team even before Tom Mitchell was injured, while Patrick Cripps has been a favourite of mine for some time. Both are locks.
I was slightly tentative about picking Clayton Oliver after a double shoulder operation over the summer, but he has dispelled any fitness doubts with a pre-season average of 32 disposals and 115 points.
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Elsewhere, Dustin Martin is underpriced and the new 6-6-6 rule could play right into his hands, giving him space to win the ball and burst through the middle. Brad Crouch has ticked every box this pre-season and despite his questionable durability, he’s just too hard to ignore at his price. Crouch attended the fifth-most centre bounces of any player in the competition during the JLT Series and ranked equal-eighth for points per minute.
Injuries often create opportunities for other players and at the Hawks there is a gaping hole in the midfield after Mitchell’s injury. This brings James Cousins into the equation. He will be given every opportunity to play as a centre bounce midfielder by Alastair Clarkson, which is why he’s in my side. Cousins ranks second at the club for centre bounce attendances across the JLT Series, behind James Worpel.
Sam Walsh’s inclusion is a no-brainer, while the remaining on-field slot is filled by Tom Atkins. I hoping he debuts in Round 1.
Michael Gibbons, Charlie Constable and Bailey Scott round out my midfield.
RUCKS
Structure: Two premiums and one floating donut.
I’m not overthinking it, even though plenty of SuperCoaches are. Brodie Grundy is a must-have to start with and after Braydon Preuss suffered a groin injury in the VFL last week, the path has been cleared to pick Max Gawn.
Looking at the bench, I’m looking to exploit the floating doughnut once again and have bypassed Darcy Fort and Zac Clarke. Both are more than likely to get games during the season, so I’ll cross that bridge when I come to it. Jordan Sweet gets the nod, as the Bulldogs allow me to make the most of the floating donut as they have the most late games of any side (Saturday night and Sunday).
FORWARDS
Structure: Two premiums, one underpriced, one mid-price and the rest are rookies.
It’s staggering to think that 33 per cent of the competition doesn’t have Patrick Dangerfield in their starting side. He was my first player selected. Isaac Heeney wasn’t too far behind after he enjoyed his first uninterrupted pre-season since arriving at the Swans in 2014.
The third spot in the forward-line has been a merry-go-round, with the likes of Devon Smith, Tim Kelly, Toby McLean and Josh Dunkley all spending time there throughout the pre-season.
After weeks of deliberations, I have landed on Jack Billings, even though he caused me plenty of heartache last season. Billings looks set to play on the wing this year, winning 24 defensive midfield disposals during the JLT Series – the most of any forward in the AFL. He’s not as expensive to start with compared to last year, which will somewhat soften the blow should he bomb again.
Single figure disposals again for Matthew Parker today. A concern if you're starting him on the ground. His forward half pressure stood up again. Forward rookies are a nightmare. #SuperCoach #AFLFantasy #2019AFLProspectus #AFL #JLTSeries
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) March 10, 2019
Will Setterfield will feature prominently at Carlton, while Willem Drew looks set to be rewarded for a strong pre-season with a Round 1 debut. Jack Petruccelle has played himself into the Eagles’ Round 1 side with two solid hitouts – ranking seventh at the club for scoreboard impact across the pre-season. He’s not a huge ball winner, so don’t expect big scores.
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The mature-age Matthew Parker and Richmond’s bolter, Noah Balta, finalise my attack.
Money in the bank: $13,400
FINAL WORD
Back your research, back your instincts and more importantly back your own judgment. Also, try and eliminate risk wherever you can.
For example, Toby McLean and Josh Dunkley seem like decent starting options, but their role in the midfield could be compromised by the return of Tom Liberatore. There has already been evidence of this with McLean attending just 9 per cent of centre bounces during the JLT Series.
Josh Kelly is another risk not worth taking. He hasn’t played a minute during the pre-season, so picking Lachie Neale instead eliminates the risk of Kelly starting slowly. These are just two examples of how you can eliminate the risk with your starting team.
Pick wisely and best of luck for 2019!
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