Picking our SuperCoach rucks is a stressful job, Fantasy Freako breaks down your big man options
Set-and-Forget or Risk-Reward? The ruck department is always one that causes SuperCoaches plenty of headaches. Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako breaks down the options.
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The ruck department is always one that causes SuperCoaches plenty of headaches.
Essentially, we only need to pick two starting rucks, but we endure plenty of sleepless nights pondering over the ideal combination.
The set-and-forget option is always a popular one, but we often have an under-priced player to consider as well, like Nic Naitanui last year.
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This season, Matthew Kreuzer - the No.1 ranked ruckman of 2017 - is that player, but he simply cannot be trusted due to questionable durability.
The adventurous SuperCoaches may look to start with a cheap second ruckman, like Zac Clarke if he gets named for Round 1. It’s a move that frees up plenty of cash, but it’s also fraught with danger, especially if they’re dropped or get injured.
As we look to hone in on the two best starting options, how could you go past Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn, despite their lofty price tags? They were the two standout options last season, with daylight to the third-ranked ruckman, Stefan Martin.
Grundy was the only ruck to score at least 80 points in every game, whereas Gawn reached 120 points more often than any other player in the league.
There are caveats with both though. Grundy has missed several weeks of training due to a toe injury, while the arrival of Braydon Preuss could potentially thwart Gawn’s impact, especially if Simon Goodwin decides to play the duo in tandem.
The table below highlights the dominance of both Grundy and Gawn in 2018, using the 120-point benchmark as a measure, 120-plus points in a game.
Gawn also finished in the top-three ranked players on the ground in 16 games – three
ahead of Grundy - while Martin was the next best with six.
If we look to on-field matters in 2019, a key factor we must consider when selecting our rucks is the potential impact of rule changes.
An alteration to the prior opportunity rule in ruck contests is a game changer, as it now gives ruckmen license to grab the ball directly from ruck contests on the full without getting penalised for holding the ball if they are caught.
In SuperCoach, the ruck hard ball get is a contested possession and is worth 4.5 points.
This statistic has been a part of the game for some time and was even around in 2002 – the late time we had no prior opportunity rule for ruckmen - when Luke Darcy was
the king of the ruck hard ball get, recording 87, well ahead of second-placed Steven King with 51.
In 2018, Stefan Martin led the league for ruck hard ball gets with 37, marginally ahead of Grundy on 35. Nankervis ranked third with 28, while Gawn was equal 39th with just one.
This shouldn’t be seen as a negative for Gawn, as he backed his ruck work to get the ball moving for the Demons, as highlighted by his elite hitout-to-advantage rate.
If we look back at the past three home-and-away seasons, Grundy and Martin are equal-first with 91 ruck hard ball gets apiece, while Nankervis is way back in third place with 46. For what it’s worth, Gawn ranks equal 32nd with just six.
The 6-6-6 rule at centre bounces may also affect which rucks we start with.
Some teams may see this as an opportunity to play two established rucks as a way to gain an advantage at centre bounces, as the Eagles did with Nic Naitanui and Scott Lycett last year.
The early consensus is that teams will definitely trial the two-pronged ruck attack during the JLT Series, but will they stick with it come Round 1? It’s a wait and see at this stage.
BEST OF THE REST
STEFAN MARTIN ($573,700) – Risky
Martin bounced back last season … but can he get anywhere near Grundy or Gawn? His ball-winning has always been a strength, ranking second behind Grundy for disposals per game last year. The new rule is likely to aid him, as highlighted by the above ruck hard ball get numbers, but from all reports he’s struggling with his fitness and may even miss the season-opener, with Archie Smith looming as an alternative.
TODD GOLDSTEIN ($548,000) – Consider
After starting with Goldstein last season, his form tapered off drastically and after a dismal 69 points against the Tigers, I dumped him in haste. Unfortunately for me, it
sparked him back into action as he went on a scoring spree, ranking third for points scored behind Gawn and Grundy thereafter. Goldstein is as durable as they come and looms as the ideal option if you’re looking to cut costs.
JARRAD WITTS ($480,900) - Risky
Witts is a workhorse, attending the second-most ruck contests of any player in the league last season. However, he was inconsistent and didn’t hit great heights, dropping below 80 points on six occasions. Witts has very little competition in the ruck and has impeccable job security. If you don’t fancy Goldstein, then he’s a decent alternative.
SAM JACOBS ($455,700) - Risky
Jacobs’ monopoly on the ruck role at Adelaide may be coming to an end, with his understudy, Reilly O’Brien putting his hand up for game time. Jacobs endured a poor year by his standards, averaging his fewest points (84) since arriving at Adelaide in 2011. Despite attending the most ruck contests of any player in the AFL, his influence in the ruck wasn’t the same. He’s underpriced if you think he can bounce back.
TOBY NANKERVIS ($533,000) – Consider
Nankervis has improved his SuperCoach scores in every season, culminating in a career-high average of 98 points, ranked seventh in the league. But his ruck work isn’t a strength, ranking mid-table for hitout-to-advantage rate of the top-25 ranked ruckman. Nankervis’ strengths lie in other areas, ranking second for tackles and intercept possessions in his position.
CALLUM SINCLAIR ($528,000) - Risky
Sinclair stepped up in the absence of the injured Sam Naismith and spent a career-high 88 per cent of game time in the ruck. He ranked third overall for ruck contests attended, but a lowly 20th for hitout-to-advantage rate and 23rd for hitout win rate of the top-25 ranked rucks. With Naismith set to return from injury at some stage this season, Sinclair may be destined to play predominantly as a forward.
SHANE MUMFORD ($320,200) - Risky
With a SuperCoach ownership of 11 per cent at the time of writing, owners of Mumford will have to bench the bullocking ruckman for the opening two rounds due to suspension. Picking him is a risk nonetheless, despite his heavily reduced starting price. Mumford isn’t durable either, missing 31 games through injury in his final four seasons at AFL
level.
FINAL WORD
History says that Grundy won’t finish as the No.1 ranked ruckman in the competition this season.
Not since Dean Cox in 2008-09 has a player been able to back-up and dominate the following season and despite history being against him, I cannot think of a legitimate reason - apart from injury that is - as to why Grundy won’t repeat his performance of 2018.
As for Gawn, Goodwin has been public in his desire to play Gawn and Preuss as a duo and we saw this first-hand last Friday in the practice match against Collingwood.
Preuss played as a marking target inside 50m and kicked two first half goals, which included taking most forward 50m ruck contests.
Gawn took most of the centre bounces and defensive half ruck contests.
If you’re a betting man, then Preuss is likely to line up against Port Adelaide in the season opener. If you wanted to hedge your bets, then picking one of Grundy or Gawn to go with Goldstein is an option to consider.
If one of the big two had an indifferent start to the season, then price drops would soon follow and they could be picked at a later stage at a reduced price.
Of course, this tactic could drastically backfire should both players come out all guns blazing, potentially increasing in price to a point where they are out of reach.
There’s a lot of information to ponder over when picking your rucks, but whatever you decide, just pick one combination and stick with it.
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