KFC SuperCoach trade guide: Who to target for Round 13 and plan for Round 14 nightmare
Four trades and so many options, so who should you add to your KFC SuperCoach team this week? Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako digs into the numbers.
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Round 13 takes on a different look after the West Coast vs Richmond match was slotted into this round of fixtures.
That will provide SuperCoaches with extra players to choose from this week, however, this will be offset in Round 14 as there will now be eight teams that have a bye.
The administrators of the game have provided us with two extra trades as a way to navigate this tricky period, however, they can be used at any time between now and the end of the season.
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As we look to attack this round, a common strategy is to target players coming off the bye. So, this brings players from Gold Coast Suns, GWS, Geelong, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide into the mix.
With that in mind, there are several key players to target across each line, and these are highlighted below:
Defence – Tom Stewart ($522,400)
Stewart is a player you can pick and just throw away the key. His consistency is his greatest asset, winning between 21 and 30 disposals in every match. Likewise, from a scoring perspective, he has six KFC SuperCoach tons and another five scores of 83 or more.
The Cats average the second-most backward kicks of any side and Stewart is often the beneficiary, taking uncontested marks from these kicks. He is also the designated kick-in player at the club, playing on from 36 of his 39 kick-ins this season.
Stewart is averaging a career-high 106 points, 24.7 disposals and 2.5 intercept marks. Tick, tick, and tick.
Midfield – Tom Mitchell ($542,000)
You know what you get with Mitchell every week, and that’s often made up of plenty of disposals. His average of 33.5 disposals is slightly down on his best returns, as is his season average of 105 KFC SuperCoach points.
Overall, though, he has been more of an outside player this season that ever before, winning 32.7 per cent of his possessions in a contested manner. Add to that a drop in his tackle numbers (career-low 3.9 per game), and these are two key factors as to why Mitchell
hasn’t posted the scores we expect from him.
Nonetheless, he’s a terrific option for the rest of the season – scoring 104, 122 and 127 points in his most recent match against his three upcoming opponents Sydney, Essendon and GWS.
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Ruck – Todd Goldstein ($504,600)
This may not be the best week to trade in a ruckman, as the top-seven scoring players in this position have either a bye in Round 13 or Round 14, or are injured.
If you’re set on making a change in the ruck, then the ever-reliable Goldstein is perhaps your best option. From a scoring point of view though, his average of 94 is his lowest since 2012 – exceeding 100 points in just three games. He has been a steady scorer though, posting between 70 and 99 points in every other match.
But if you can hold off one week on making a ruck trade, then that would be the safest play.
Forward – Aaron Hall ($502,100)
A forward in KFC SuperCoach, Hall has propelled himself into calculations on the back of a five-week stretch when he has topped 100 points in every game. He has also averaged 32 disposals, 22.6 disposals, 3.2 tackles and 4.4 inside-50s.
He leads the club in a number of categories over these rounds, including disposals, effective kicks, long kicks, uncontested possessions and handball-receives.
Hall also shares the kick-in duties with Jack Ziebell, playing on from 19 of the 20 he has taken since Round 7.
The Kangaroos see plenty of the ball in their defence and rank second for uncontested marks and fourth for disposals in that zone.
Forget about history with Hall, he has proven himself to be a reliable scorer this season.
ROOKIE WATCH
In terms of downgrade targets ahead of Round 13, SuperCoaches are spoilt for choice.
However, we do need to be mindful that whoever you bring in this round will likely have a bye next round.
If we look at players that have already had the bye, then Ned Reeves is the clear standout ahead of Friday night’s clash against Sydney. Alastair Clarkson has been public with his desire to continue playing Reeves and he’s set to boom in price with a break even of -102.
However, the two other standout options – Callum Coleman-Jones and Trent Bianco – both have a bye the following round. Irrespective of the bye, both are too good to pass up.
Coleman-Jones dominated in the first half last round against the Bombers, scoring 62 points. He was quiet in the third term before adding 25 points to his score in the final quarter. He was once again a focal point in attack, with the Tigers targeting him 10 times inside 50 – the same amount as Jack Riewoldt.
Bianco had an impact in Collingwood’s win over Essendon, recording 11 effective disposals on his way to 75 points. He ticked plenty of boxes, recording six contested possessions, four tackles, one score assist and one goal from 71 per cent game time.
Another defender, Oscar Clavarino, is also on the bubble after scoring 45 points against Sydney, but in terms of scoring potential and cash generation Bianco is the preferred option.
Elsewhere, Luke Edwards was the only debutant in Round 12, finishing with 15 disposals, 10 uncontested possessions, two tackles and 63 points. But, like Coleman-Jones, Bianco and Clavarino, he too has the bye in Round 14.
Whatever you decide, trade wisely and best of luck ahead of Round 13!
HOW TO SURVIVE BYE-POCALYPSE
— Al Paton
The unexpected availability of Richmond and West Coast players this week papers over a gigantic sinkhole that threatens to swallow all KFC SuperCoaches.
The AFL’s decision to shift the Eagles v Tigers game to Round 13 means most coaches should be able to field 18 scoring players this weekend.
That’s despite Brisbane (Dayne Zorko), Carlton (Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps), Essendon (Zach Merrett, Jordan Ridley) and the Western Bulldogs (Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel) having the bye.
But glance one week ahead and Round 14 looks absolutely brutal.
Eight teams now have a bye that weekend, with Richmond and West Coast joining Collingwood, Melbourne, Adelaide, Fremantle, St Kilda and Sydney on the sidelines.
That rules out many of the most popular players in the game including Dustin Martin, Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy, Rory Laird, Caleb Poulter, Jayden Short, Clayton Oliver, Jake Lloyd and Jack Steele — and that’s listing only the players with 30 per cent ownership or higher.
KFC SuperCoach rule changes following the fixture change will help — two extra trades, taking the season total to 32 with a maximum four per week for Rounds 13 and 14 and two per week after that. But best 18 scoring still applies for both rounds and we’ll need to be very smart with those trades to avoid falling into the Round 14 abyss.
😮 pic.twitter.com/l0QSegmb9J
— SuperCoach AFL (@Supercoach) June 6, 2021
ROOKIE RIDDLE
The classic play this week will be to cash in a fattened up rookie with a bye in Round 13 or 14 like Alec Waterman for a fresh cheapie, then upgrade another rookie to a premium who has already had his bye — Lachie Whitfield is target 1A.
First, the good news — there are some great rookies on the bubble this week, headed by Tiger Callum Coleman-Jones ($161,200 RUC/FWD, break even -102) and Magpie Trent Bianco ($123,900 MID, BE -84).
MORE: AL PATON’S TOP SUPERCOACH BYE TRADE TARGETS
Now, the bad news — both will play their third game this week and enjoy a substantial price rise, then sit out Round 14 with the bye.
Trading them in could still work for your team but it will definitely pay to calculate how many players you will have available in Round 14 to decide if you can afford to have them sitting on the bench.
Hawthorn’s Ned Reeves ($123,900 RUC, BE -98) is another great option — coming off his bye, he should keep his spot and play the next two rounds. And we might have to cross our fingers at selection for fringe bubble boys like Geelong’s Max Holmes ($121,800 MID/FWD, BE -40) and Gold Coast’s Malcolm Rosas ($123,900 FWD, BE 5).
Eagle Luke Edwards ($117,300 MID) looked good in his first game on Sunday, but — you guessed it — he has the bye in Round 14. He could be handy as a bubble boy coming into Round 15 but don’t jump on him yet.
RUCK RIDDLE
Does the further decimation of our Round 14 stocks force a rethink of the Brodie Grundy situation?
Most elected to hold onto the injured Magpies ruckman, but some who pulled the trade trigger were rewarded — just ask The Phantom, who brought in Reilly O’Brien and received an instant injection of 137 points.
Been treading water for the past month but a 2079 should see me climb a little in KFC #SuperCoach this week. How did you go? pic.twitter.com/qVM2UV7Gle
— The Phantom (@ThePhantomSC) June 6, 2021
Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley gave an update on Grundy after the Pies’ win against Adelaide, hosing down any thoughts of a quick comeback: “The initial plan is for him to miss at least another one then into the bye and see how he’s tracking in three weeks’ time. Getting the inflammation of that nerve down is the most important thing.”
So we know Grundy is not playing in Round 13 or 14 — when numbers will be desperately low. We hope he’ll be back in Round 15, but would it be a huge shock if he’s out for longer?
A sideways trade to another ruckman could be a smart move, but — of course — there’s a catch.
The ideal move would be to pick up a ruckman who has just had his bye and will be available in the next two rounds. But the options aren’t overly enticing; the highest averaging ruckman from a Round 12 bye team is Shane Mumford (98). Scott Lycett (95.4) and Todd Goldstein (93.9) are the only other two over 90.
Ned Reeves could be the answer if you’re prepared to play him and/or Matt Flynn on the field, at least until we get through the byes and you can look at potentially getting Grundy back.
The ‘case for’ is getting another player on field in Round 14, 80-odd points from Reeves plus another player you could buy with the $500,000 made on the deal — who wants to turn Riley Collier-Dawkins into Marcus Bontempelli?
With a break even of 160 Grundy’s price will fall under $600k but you’ll still need $200k or so to get there from Flynn. But that’s a plan for another day.
TRADE IN
Lachie Whitfield $503,600 DEF
KFC SuperCoach favourite has now played five games back from a liver injury, and scored 110 and 120 in his past two. Now bye-free and $58,000 cheaper than many of us were happy to pay for him in Round 1.
Aaron Hall $502,100 FWD
Brave coaches jumped on when they spotted his new role as a playmaker off half-back — and stealing a lot of Jack Ziebell’s behind kick-ins. Has had his soft-tissue problems in the past but five 100-plus scores can’t be ignored especially in a shallow forward pool.
Josh Kelly $562,300 MID
Kelly has averaged 114 or better every season since 2017 and his numbers are looking a lot more like that now after a slow start to the year. Has won back his midfield spot after spending time at half-forward and the results are obvious — a five-round average of 119.2. There is something unusual about this season though, and that is Kelly has played every game after missing 19 over the past three seasons. Will this run of luck continue?
Tom Stewart $522,400 DEF
Apart from a standout 152 against the Kangaroos his best score this season is 119, but Stewart is as reliable as they come, scoring between 92 and 114 in seven of his 11 games. Biggest issue might be finding a spot for him in the backline.
Tom Mitchell $542,000 MID
Will the real Tom Mitchell please stand up? His past four scores are 147, 76, 142, 88. It’s a great price if you think he can score more at the higher end for the rest of the year.
Travis Boak $533,900 MID
If dependability is important, you can’t go past Boak — he has missed just five games in his past eight seasons. The best midfielder in a likely top-four team who will play every round from here, available for $60k under this starting price, might be worth foregoing the potential mega-scoring of Kelly or Mitchell for a guy who will score 95-110 just about every week.
Ollie Wines $549,900 MID
A secret of successful KFC SuperCoaches is picking a trend and jumping on early (see Aaron Hall notes above). Wines has a three-round average of 124.3 after big scores against the Bulldogs, Collingwood and Fremantle. Is it a reliable sample size? One possible red flag — two of those two scores came at Adelaide Oval, as did his season-high 143 against the Saints in Round 6. Port plays only five more games at home for the home-and-away season.
Dan Houston $415,500 DEF
Looking for value? Houston made a flying start to the season, averaging 112 over the first four rounds, before slowing up a bit then copping a shoulder injury. He scored just 49 in his return game but a 97 before the bye is a hint he could provide some good numbers from here.
Tom Hawkins $513,400 FWD
An underrated forward option who has hit form in the past month with scores of 149, 91, 101 and 126. Now averages 95.2 for the year, backing up his 105 from last year and placing him in the top eight forwards, and should play in plenty of wins in the run home. The Cats’ next three aren’t easy, though — Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane.
Lachie Neale $575,200 MID
The Lions have the bye this week but one to keep in your plans for next week. Scored 84 on his return from injury but found the footy 25 times and moved well. Break even of 163 means he’ll probably get cheaper but we night need him for Round 14.
Callum Coleman-Jones $161,200 RUC/FWD
His -102 break even is the lowest in the game after booting six goals, and scoring 112 and 86 KFC SuperCoach points, in his first two games of the year. Toby Nankervis might be back sooner than we thought but with Tom Lynch out CCJ should hold his spot for a while. A Round 14 bye is tricky (to put it kindly) but his dual-position flexibility could help.
Trent Bianco $123,900 DEF/MID
More than 40,000 KFC SuperCoaches went early on the Magpies youngster and he didn’t let them down, scoring 75 in his second game. Projected to add more than $70,000 to his price tag this week but then has the dreaded Round 14 bye. Could he be worth it even if you cop a doughnut in two weeks?
Would you get Bianco & CCJ even if it means you don't have 18 players in Round 14? 🤷â€â™‚ï¸#supercoach
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) June 7, 2021
Ned Reeves $123,900 RUC
The 211cm Hawks beanpole seems likely to lead his club’s ruck division for the foreseeable future and is projected to jump in value in KFC SuperCoach by more than $80,000 after his third game this weekend. And he is available in Round 14 when the ruck line will be decimated. Hard to think of a reason not to pick him.
Max Holmes $121,800 MID/FWD
A Stephen Wells recruiting special, Holmes is a former junior champion hurdler who was drafted on the back of one game for the Sandrginrham Dragons in 2019 following a broken arm. Made his debut on Easter Monday, scoring 53 against Hawthorn, then returned to the team in Round 11 with a 60 from 15 disposals and four marks against the Magpies. Will play his third game if he is selected this week, but we really need him to star against Port to keep his spot for Round 14.
Malcolm Rosas $123,900 FWD
Another risky bubble boy, Rosas has made two appearances for Gold Coast in Rounds 9 and 11 for scores of 21 and 48. You definitely wouldn’t be getting him for cash generation — he is projected to score 35 and rise in value by $13k — but another warm body could be very valuable ... if he holds his spot. A lively small forward recruited from the Northern Territory, Rosas hasn’t kicked a goal yet at AFL level but he averaged five tackles a game in the VFL before his debut.
TRADE OUT
Anthony Scott ($273,800 MID/FWD), Jake Waterman ($202,700 FWD) and Harry Jones ($258,700) are popular rookies from teams that have a bye this week.
Trading them makes sense but it there is an argument for holding players who should return in Round 14, when they will be desperately needed, especially if they have more money to make — Waterman’s BE is just 10.
If you have 18 on field this week you could look ahead to rookies who will be missing in Round 14, and Riley Collier-Dawkins heads this group. He scored just 29 points against the Bombers, which will stall his cash generation (break even 59) and while an injury to Dion Prestia might help him survive at selection this week, he won’t help us in Round 14.
You could also make an early call on Round 14 rookies like James Rowe ($295,600 FWD), Chad Warner ($300,800 FWD), Tom Highmore ($186,900) or Demon James Jordon ($367,000 MID).
One particularly tough call will be Caleb Poulter ($296,300 MID/FWD). He has added $179,000 to his price tag by averaging 72.3 in his first six games, and is projected to add another $24k this week with a break even of 22.
If you’re making a two-week trade plan (highly recommended!) try to keep Poulter for at least one more week.
AND ONE MORE THING...
Another quick red flag to keep an eye out for over the next two rounds.
Using dual-position players is a great way to cover missing players and maximise your trades over the byes. But take a moment to think about what your team will look like after Round 14.
For example, swinging Rory Laird from defence into the midfield could open a spot to trade in a player like Lachie Whitfield, but remember that will add Laird to your midfield mix when the byes are over. If you already have eight premium midfielders that means one of them will be pushed to the bench.
Similarly, it’s not ideal if all your DEF/MID players are stuck in your midfield post-bye.
Just something else to keep in mind in this tricky time!
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