KFC SuperCoach: The stars who will thrive and struggle in opening month of AFL restart
With our five KFC SuperCoach trades, we can look to jump off players with an undesirable fixture. Which stars face a difficult first month of the restart? There’s one player in nearly 50,000 teams facing an uphill battle.
Supercoach
Don't miss out on the headlines from Supercoach. Followed categories will be added to My News.
The winners and losers of the AFL’s new fixture have been thrashed out over the past week and there are a plethora of KFC SuperCoach stars who are set to reap the rewards of a favourable run.
It is no surprise to see Geelong’s most important player sit atop that list after the Herald Sun revealed last Sunday night they will host Hawthorn – and potentially other big name Victorian clubs – at Kardinia Park.
However, it is the Gold Coast hub that is likely to have the most significant impact on SuperCoach output.
While some serve to benefit from the hub – like Brisbane’s Lachie Neale – other West Australian and South Australian players could struggle at Metricon Stadium, their new home ground.
Meanwhile, other household SuperCoach names are impacted on an individual level by their upcoming opponents from Round 2-5.
As we are all armed with five trades for the Round 2 restart, it is wise to pounce on who you think will have a hot start, and trade out those who face an uphill battle.
Fortunately, we’ve done the hard work for you – here are the players likely to thrive and struggle over the opening month of the restart.
TRADE IN OR HOLD
Patrick Dangerfield – Geelong ($625,500, MID)
Round 1 score: 83
The No. 1 man to target from the newly released fixture is SuperCoach favourite Patrick Dangerfield. Not only has he already overcome Matt de Boer in Round 1 – meaning he won’t face him again this season – he also plays three of his next four games at Kardinia Park. And he will be licking his lips coming up against Hawthorn, Carlton, Melbourne and Gold Coast. In his most recent clashes against the quartet, Dangerfield scored 127 (against the Hawks), 156 (Blues), 154 (Demons) and 187 (Suns). It’s scary to think that in shortened quarters his SuperCoach output could be even more damaging than that. Oh, did we mention Dangerfield averaged 122 points at Kardinia Park last year?
Max Gawn – Melbourne ($697,100, RUCK)
Round 1 score: 93
More than 1,000 teams have traded out Max Gawn ahead of Round 2 and they might want to think about hitting the reverse button. The bearded giant has a dream run of opponents to begin the restart. He is set to be rucking against Matthew Kreuzer-replacement Marc Pittonet, Tom Bellchambers or Andrew Phillips, Darcy Fort or Rhys Stanley and Sam Naismith. With ruckman sharing in a larger slice of the scoring pie in shortened quarters, this could be four 140+ scores from Gawn. We forget that his below par Round 1 effort was off a limited pre-season, managing just 14 touches and 18 hit-outs against Nic Naitanui – that still corresponded to a solid 93 points.
Lachie Neale – Brisbane ($658,500, MID)
Round 1 score: 157
Lachie Neale started the season with a monster 157-point score and now is the perfect time to target the ball-magnet with four straight games at the Gabba. Neale averaged 117 points per game on the Lions’ home deck last season and only faces one top-eight team in his next four. His $658,500 price tag is only set to rise over the first month.
Nic Naitanui – West Coast ($457,800, RUCK)
Round 1 score: 100
This may look a bit out of place given Nic Naitanui is playing away from home for the next month, but the Gold Coast is often a stoppage heavy ground – particularly at night, when West Coast play all four of their scheduled games. The increased output of ruckman in Round 1 in shortened quarters bodes well for Naitanui in these conditions, and expect him to give his fifth round match-up – Ivan Soldo and/or Toby Nankervis – a bath.
Tom Stewart – Geelong ($533,200, DEF)
Round 1 score: 100
A largely overlooked defender in the pre-season, owned by under 10 per cent of teams, Tom Stewart looms as a potential point-of-difference. His record at the Cattery was exceptional last season, averaging 108 points in nine matches at the venue and, like Danger, he plays three of his next four there. Stewart said this week that the Cats “love to defend (Kardinia Park) and make it as small as possible”, and part of that is through Stewart’s elite intercept work.
Stephen Coniglio – GWS ($549,500, MID)
Round 1 score: 114
Coniglio played just four games at Giants Stadium due to injury, but his 2019 record there was astounding. The Giants star averaged a whopping 153.6 points per game in those four matches, and remains at a tick under $550,000. If he can replicate this kind of scoring, he’ll be a steal.
Jake Lloyd – Sydney ($591,400, DEF)
Round 1 score: 77
While you would be a daring coach to trade Jake Lloyd in after a below par opening round, his 42,000 owners shouldn’t consider moving him on just yet. Sydney leave the SCG just once from Round 2-5, which suits Lloyd just fine. The rebounding defender averaged 108.4 points from his 11 matches at the SCG in 2019. His other hitout is at Marvel Stadium, a ground which works with his uncontested style.
Jon Ceglar – Hawthorn ($417,000, RUCK/FWD)
Round 1 score: 101
POD forward/ruck Jon Ceglar surged to a first round ton, thanks in part to a blow to Brisbane’s Stefan Martin. Fortune continues to be on his side with some favourable match-ups coming up. Hawthorn’s new number one ruckman faces Geelong and Richmond inside the first two rounds, meaning he is up against likely opponents Rhys Stanley/Darcy Fort for Geelong and Ivan Soldo/Toby Nankervis from the Tigers – not exactly world beaters in the rucking game. However, an ominous task of Todd Goldstein awaits him after that, followed by ageing veteran Sam Jacobs.
TRADE OUT OR AVOID
Marcus Bontempelli – Western Bulldogs ($623,000, MID)
Round 1 score: 76
The fixture has not done The Bont any favours. The high-impact Bulldog has a date with taggers Jack Steele and Matt de Boer in consecutive weeks in their first two games back. Bontempelli was kept to just 13 disposals in the elimination final by the Giants stopper, while Steele restricted him to just 70 points in Round 18 last year. It means Bontempelli could start 2020 with three straight sub-ton scores, managing 76 points in their devastating Round 1 loss. A trade from the Bontempelli to Dangerfield looms as a smart option.
Tom Mitchell – Hawthorn ($630,900, MID)
Round 1 score: 119
Tom Mitchell would have found a way to find the Sherrin even during the AFL shutdown, but Hawthorn’s difficult start to the season could impact his scoring. Geelong (away), Richmond and GWS (away) await him in their opening four games, the last of those being the most concerning. A date with Matt de Boer looms large, especially after amassing 50 disposals in his last game against the Giants in 2018.
Nat Fyfe – Fremantle ($651,600, MID)
Round 1 score: 110
Nat Fyfe averaged more points at Perth Stadium than any player last season, going at a phenomenal rate of 119.5-points from his 10 games. The Dockers skipper will be forced to play four games in Queensland to restart their campaign, three of those at Metricon Stadium. It would take a SuperCoach braver than me to pull the pin on the reigning Brownlow medallist, but a move from him to similarly priced premium Lachie Neale could prove to be a winner. It’s worth noting that Fyfe has posted scores of 124 and 160 in his past two games on the Gold Coast.
Sam Jacobs – GWS ($348,400, RUCK)
Round 1 score: 134
Sam Jacobs went bananas in his first game as a Giant but his upcoming opponents will test him far more than Darcy Fort did in Round 1. Ruck behemoths Brodie Grundy and Todd Goldstein await Jacobs in his first three games back, who could put the experienced ruckman to the sword. Match-ups against Tim English (Round 3) and Jon Ceglar (Round 5) could help balance out those scores, though.
Luke Ryan – Fremantle ($520,400, DEF)
Round 1 score: 52
Conditions suit Luke Ryan’s intercepting game perfectly in Perth, where he averaged 98 points per game in 2019. The humidity levels up on the Gold Coast may hinder his prime scoring avenues across the first month, finishing with 15 touches and 78 points against the Suns at Metricon Stadium last year. This uncertainty coupled with his unimpressive 52-point total in Round 1 make him an ideal player to trade out.
Shannon Hurn – West Coast ($562,200, DEF)
Round 1 score: 152
Like Ryan, Hurn thrives in the dry West Australian climate where he can kick long and intercept. Whether he can play that role to the same effect in Queensland will remain to be seen. Don’t be sucked in by his whirlwind 152 point score in the opening round, as $562,200 is a significant price to pay.
Chad Wingard ($412,300, FWD/MID)
Round 1 score: 131
Chad Wingard teased coaches with a Round 1 stunner, but Hawthorn’s tough fixture will be a significant test for the mercurial Hawk. It could mean Wingard throws in a stinker or two, which would undo his good work in the opening game of 2020. It would be a risk to bring in Wingard as it is, let alone with the Hawks’ horror draw.
MORE EXPERT ADVICE:
KFC SuperCoach’s Round 1 flops who deserve a second chance
KFC SuperCoach: Dan Batten reveals his 5 trades for Round 2
KFC SuperCoach jury answers five key questions ahead of AFL return on June 11
Tim Michell reveals his five Round 2 trades for KFC SuperCoach
KFC SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom reveals his five trades ahead of Round 2