KFC SuperCoach jury answers five key questions ahead of AFL return on June 11
Trade Max Gawn to Sam Naismith? How do we solve the rookie crisis? How many trades should you use? The KFC SuperCoach jury answer all the key question ahead of Round 2.
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There’s never been a KFC SuperCoach season quite like this.
In no another year would you consider trading a top scorer such as Max Gawn after one round.
Or burning a crucial trade on a mid-price option such as Jeremy Howe or Jack Viney after one standout game.
While we’re in uncharted territory, our KFC SuperCoach jury have come up with a few solutions to help you navigate footy’s return.
Here’s how they plan to solve their own team dilemmas before Round 2.
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Al Paton (Herald Sun)
How many of your five trades are you planning to use and how will you use them?
Don’t want to give too much away but I’ve got four trades in mind and there’s every chance another emergency will present itself when the Round 2 teams are announced. My main priorities are getting Sam Sturt, who looks like the standout forward rookie, and bolstering my backline — where I had three cheap guys on field. Two of those are good chances to be dropped and there aren’t any cheaper options to replace, them so I need to find some cash.
Who’s your top trade target and why?
Patrick Dangerfield’s fixture has me salivating but I would have to go sideways from another top-priced midfielder to bring him in, which isn’t ideal. Otherwise Sturt is the must-have after his 100 in Round 1. He probably won’t score that well again but we’re going to need cash and he’s about to make some.
What are the key issues in your team you need to address?
See my answer to question one. My strategy was to load up with rookies in the forward line — which generally worked — and save money in defence by picking three players in the $200k-$300k price range, which definitely didn’t (it didn’t help that my defensive premos also stunk). With a good chance Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and Isaac Cumming won’t be named for Round 2 — and no sign of bench cover — I need to fix that part of the ground.
How many ruckmen do you plan on having in Round 2 (including DPP forwards)?
Given other priorities I probably won’t touch my rucks which means it’s Grundy, Gawn set and forget. I do like the idea of Jon Ceglar as a forward back-up though.
How has the shortened season changed your strategy?
It’s hard to predict exactly how hard it will be to get a ‘finished’ team before finals with less time and no bye rounds, which is usually prime upgrade time. But we’re going to need cash fast. The good news is 30 trades in 17 rounds means even if we use all five for Round 2 you can still use two a week and have three left for finals. So moves like a sideways trade to Dangerfield aren’t as crazy as they would be in other years. I’m not going to die wondering!
Tim Michell (Herald Sun)
1. How many of your five trades are you planning to use and how will you use them?
Four or five. I missed Round 1 Rising Star nominee Sam Sturt, who scored 100, and North Melbourne forward Curtis Taylor (79). I’m not convinced both can back up those numbers consistently, but with negative break evens it’s important to grab them before prices change after Round 2. I could wait a week on Izak Rankine but will likely jump on if he’s named to debut, while I expect Brandon Zerk-Thatcher will be dropped for Cale Hooker or Patrick Ambrose. That will mean a forced change in defence and only one ‘luxury’ trade, should I choose to use it. For a full explanation of my strategy, click here.
2. Who’s your top trade target and why?
Has to be Sam Sturt. The Freo forward will be a popular trade target for more than 80 per cent of teams who overlooked him. He’s unlikely to score 100 again, which would result in a $69,000 price jump, but a score of 60-70 would lead to his value soaring by about $50,000 from $123,900.
3. What are the key issues in your team you need to address?
Rookies. The AFL shutdown period likely spells trouble for Zerk-Thatcher and GWS’ top-10 draft pick Tom Green. Cash generation will be more important than ever in a 17-round season and that means nailing your rookies. You only get one more chance to fix any problems before prices move after Round 2.
4. How many ruckmen do you plan on having in Round 2 (including DPP forwards)?
I’ve got three after starting Darcy Fort at F5 and don’t see that changing. I’d want to see more than one game above 100 from Jon Ceglar before jumping on despite the strong performances of several big men in Round 1. Brodie Grundy and Nic Naitanui were my starting rucks.
5. How has the shortened season changed your strategy?
I’m normally fairly aggressive with trades anyway but I don’t want to second guess myself at all this year. If there’s a mid-price option with an attractive break even who has a favourable fixture and I have a positive gut feel, those extra trades provide wiggle room to jump on with few fears. You can always fix a mistake a few weeks later without too much harm.
MORE SUPERCOACH NEWS:
Tim Michell reveals his five Round 2 trades for KFC SuperCoach
KFC SuperCoach expert Al Paton reveals how he will use his five trades for Round 2
KFC SuperCoach is back for the 2020 AFL season restart - with bonus trades
KFC SuperCoach 2020: The players and trades to consider ahead of Round 2
Dan Batten (Herald Sun)
How many of your five trades are you planning to use and how will you use them?
I feel like if I use all five, I’ll be trading unnecessarily and making my side worse rather than better. But I could have 10 trades and not fully repair my team. I will attempt to get a rookie or two that I missed and move on some underperformers and players who get dropped for Round 2.
Who’s your top trade target and why?
Sam Sturt. His pre-season scores left a lot to be desired but he is the standout cash cow given he has the lowest breakeven of the bunch before Round 2 price changes.
What are the key issues in your team you need to address?
Where do I start? My major headache is having a stacked forward line with just one forward rookie on the field — when all the promising cash cows are forwards. Having Dylan Roberton and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher in defence is also an issue.
How many ruckmen do you plan on having in Round 2 (including DPP forwards)?
As it stands I have four – Grundy and Gawn in the ruck and DPP ruckmen Darcy Fort and Jon Ceglar as forwards. That may become three if Rhys Stanley takes Fort’s spot for Round 2, although he put in an encouraging performance first up.
How has the shortened season changed your strategy?
I’ll be a lot more aggressive with my trades and put more emphasis on durable players and those with a friendly fixture. In saying that, I may keep a trade or two in the kitty from Round 2 to allow me to use two trades just about every week until finals.
The Phantom
1. How many of your five trades are you planning to use and how will you use them?
At this point, I’ve made four with plans to use the fifth on any rookie-price issues that arise closer to the restart. I’ve addressed the cash cow shortage in defence, while also setting the team up for a big cash injection following Round 2.
2. Who’s your top trade target and why?
Jeremy Howe. His 156 points in Round 1 showed just how undervalued he is at $439k. And his inclusion will help my main issue, the final two on-field spots in defence.
3. What are the key issues in your team you need to address?
Besides the rookie-price options in defence, there’s no player I feel I must trade. But, of course, to help my team improve – and improve quickly – in a shortened season, there’s a number of options who I feel need to come in. A full-premium side is always the goal. The key to achieving that in 2020 is picking the right cash cows – as always – and nailing the mid-price selections, who will become premium options quicker, if they don’t become keepers themselves. That’s what my 5 trades are about, at this early stage anyway.
4. How many ruckmen do you plan on having in Round 2 (including DPP forwards)?
I’ve still got Jon Ceglar on my mind but it’s likely to just be the two I started with — Brodie Grundy and Nic Naitanui.
5. How has the shortened season changed your strategy?
I’m all aboard the mid-price money train, as I mentioned above. Cash cows, alone, might not be enough in a short year.
Alexie Beovich (Jock Reynolds)
How many of your five trades are you planning to use and how will you use them?
Looking at my team after a couple of months away has me wondering why I was so upset with it. I was annoyed that I put Max Gawn in at the last minute … can you imagine that? Yet I will still likely have to use all five trades to ensure I have the maximum amount of cash generation possible and to remove the maximum amounts of Dylan Roberton as possible.
And as @danbatten_ smartly points out, Max Gawn vs a Kreuzer-less Blues in R2 #SuperCoach pic.twitter.com/RFwat1MQmM
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) May 24, 2020
Who’s your top trade target and why?
The temptation to target Jack Viney (break even -19, R1 score 186) is still high despite my midfield already being pretty deep. Guys like Zac Williams, who missed Round 1, are also on the radar.
What are the key issues in your team you need to address?
I think everyone is going to need to shore up their rookies in a year where teams will be focusing on wins over development. I’m very concerned about the prospects of guys like Ben Cavarra, Sturt, Curtis Taylor, Brandon Starcevich, Zerk-Thatcher … the list goes on. Coaches may have to jump early on the likes of Izak Rankine and Harley Bennell early just to field a team! Outside of rookies, my defence only has two premium selections in it … this could prove painful.
How many ruckmen do you plan on having in Round 2 (including DPP forwards)?
At the moment I have Grundy, Gawn, Conroy and Bailey Williams (WCE) as ruckmen. In terms of adding to this mix, I’ll be tempted by Carlton’s Marc Pittonet and Tom De Koning as cheap cash generators with Matthew Kreuzer likely to miss a chuck of the season. I may even sideways a player such as Darcy MacPherson to Jon Ceglar for security. So I guess the answer to your question is five … ish.
How has the shortened season changed your strategy?
No, I had initially built my team assuming that we would have a shortened season. I picked premiums who were either underpriced or rarely missed games. I’ll use any additional trades we are given to generate revenue through rookies and jump on any underpriced premiums I may have missed before Round 1. Mostly, I’m just excited to be talking SuperCoach again!
Paul Dunn (Rage trades)
How many of your five trades are you planning to use and how will you use them?
I am prepared to use all five depending on team selections, injuries and rookies. My main issues are fixing rookies. With players now having had extra time to recover, some of the rookies we took a chance on initially may not get a chance to play again. If any of the premiums that missed Round 1 through injury are available then I would try and get them in.
Who’s your top trade target and why?
Sam Sturt. With the short season, fast cash generation is the key and he will rocket in price (assuming a decent game) plus he has good job security. He will be in for Ben Cavarra, who may not get a game in R2. In terms of a premium I will be looking at Callan Ward if he is available and named for round 2.
What are the key issues in your team you need to address?
My rookies. I have Cavarra, Tom Green and Starcevich that all struggled and may not get game time going forward.
How many ruckmen do you plan on having in Round 2 (including DPP forwards)? Three. Grundy, Naismith and Comben on the bench. This is the ruck structure I started with and I think that it is the one I want to continue with for now.
How has the shortened season changed your strategy?
I will be more aggressive with my trading. With five trades for Round 2, that leaves us with 25 for the next 15 weeks. With a shorter season you don’t have long to score points and will need to get your team to a full premium side as fast as possible. We may not be able to wait for cash cows to fully mature, nor fallen premiums to bottom out.
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Dan Begala (SuperCoach Investor)
How many of your five trades are you planning to use and how will you use them?
I will be treating the generosity of the SuperCoach folk with the upmost gratitude and will be deploying all five trades as part of the season relaunch. I’ll be shorting the stocks that went bust in Round 1 and taking a long position on the rookies that I overlooked during the Marsh Series such as Sam Sturt and Port Adelaide’s Mitchell Georgiades. It could be the COVID-19 isolation speaking, but I’ve been contemplating the following move that is sure to rock the SuperCoach fraternity:
SELL (“SHORT”): Max Gawn ($697K, RUC)
BUY (“LONG”): Sam Naismith ($252K, RUC)
NET PROFIT: +$445K
It’s audacious, but that cash bonanza would enable a swift renovation and capture the anticipated price rises associated with the Swans’ big man.
Who’s your top trade target and why?
I was extremely impressed by the Round 1 performances of underpriced stars Jeremy Howe ($431,900, DEF) and Jack Viney ($439,300, MID), who each look destined to be in top six-eight contention in their respective positions.
One word: ARBITRAGE.
Given there’s only sixteen games remaining, I believe coaches will be rewarded by taking the plunge on players such as Howe or Viney particularly if the savings from a downgrade can be used for an immediate upgrade elsewhere in your side.
What are the key issues in your team you need to address?
I am missing two key rookies, Sam Sturt (100 points in Round 1) and Mitch Georgiades (78 points), who are both projected to skyrocket in value when the first wave of price changes take effect after Round 2. I’ve also overlooked the scoring juggernauts, Tom Mitchell and Lachie Neale, which may require a corrective sideways trade to acquire their services at The Begala Brigade. You’re on the clock, Marcus Bontempelli (79 points).
How many ruckmen do you plan on having in Round 2 (including DPP forwards)?
There was only two starting ruckmen in my original side, Gawn and Grundy. The Begala Brigade are screaming out for support in the big man category! They are KFC SuperCoach scoring dynamite, so I will try and enlist the services of Jon Ceglar and most likely, Sam Naismith, via the mind-boggling trade I’ve suggested earlier.
How has the shortened season changed your strategy?
There is so much uncertainty. There is no playbook. Like the old cliche, it’ll be “one week at a time” at The Begala Brigade as we adapt to an unprecedented season of KFC SuperCoach. I will be, however, more frivolous and take more risks than ever with my weekly trades given we’ll have 30 to use over 16 rounds.
Paige Cardona
How many of your five trades are you planning to use and how will you use them?
Given how much time has elapsed between the first and second round, I wouldn’t be surprised if I used all five as a ‘hard reset’ approach. I’m less likely to reshuffle premium scorers and more likely to correct rookies or those lower-priced types – particularly those ‘breakout’ types who didn’t fire in Round 1 (Looking at you Darcy MacPherson and Dan Houston!). If I was Brandon Starcevich, I would be very worried about my job security in ramPAIGE!
Who’s your top trade target and why?
I was super hot on Ben Long coming into the season but I baulked at the last minute and stuck with MacPherson as the breakout contender. Of course Long, in his new back flank role — went bonkers with 118 points. I want him! I also think Lachie Neale will be a sideways trade target, particularly as Josh Dunkley couldn’t get anywhere near it in Round 1.
What are the key issues in your team you need to address?
I got sucked in by the hype surrounding Darcy MacPherson after the pre-season and he returned just 56 points in Round 1. I cannot have that. It’s likely I’ll sideways trade him to teammate Hugh Greenwood, but given I have a lot of depth in my forward line, I’m thinking of downgrading him to Long and using the leftover cash to upgrade Dylan Roberton to Jeremy Howe. The other major factor to keep in mind is there were a number of key players who were missing from their Round 1 sides. Michael Hurley for the Dons, Adam Treloar for the Pies, Buddy Franklin for the Swans — how will their returns impact SuperCoach sides? It might harm the security of Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, for example.
How many ruckmen do you plan on having in Round 2 (including DPP forwards)?
I started the season with Grundy and Gawn and I can’t tell you how happy I am about that! Gawn came in underdone after a pre-season mishap but still notched 93 points in Round 1 which was hardly bad. I’m expecting Gawn to be in tip-top shape and thankfully I have avoided having to trade him in. Good luck with that one.
Max Gawn Opponents Rounds 2-5
— Pete (@aflratingsPete) May 25, 2020
R2 v Marc Pittonet 🚀
R3 v Tom Bellchambers 🚀
R4 v Darcy Fort 🚀
R5 v Sam Naismith 🚀
How has the shortened season changed your strategy?
It hasn’t pivoted too much from my initial strategy but as the first few games are played — we should get a better idea of who will thrive in the new look season. I’ll reserve my judgment until we get ready for the first lot of breakevens to pass, which will no doubt force my hand to my trade strategy.