KFC SuperCoach Round 4 trade guide: Fantasy Freako’s advice, top targets for round 4
Braydon Preuss could be the steal of the season but can we trust him in KFC KFC SuperCoach? Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako reveals key stats for this week’s trade targets.
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The KFC SuperCoach community was split late week on Max Gawn and in the end, 16,942 coaches dumped him and missed out on a season-high haul of 117 points. Yes, his price plummeted by $41,100, but the safe play may have been to just hold.
But that’s now in the past.
The ruck department is once again a talking point among SuperCoaches after the much-anticipated club debut of Braydon Preuss. He was one of eight ruckmen to top 100 points in round 3, collecting 109 from 16 disposals, 12 contested possessions, seven clearances and nine hitouts to advantage.
Preuss did the bulk of the ruck work for GWS as well as the only recognised ruckman in the team, attending 71 ruck contests – ranked fourth in the competition for the round. Lachlan Keeffe played the role of a back-up, also playing as a marking target in attack.
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As good as Preuss was though, can we trust him to play every game for the rest of the season? If history is anything to go by, the answer has to be no.
In 2021, Shane Mumford and Matt Flynn each played 12 games, while Kieren Briggs played five. In the 2020 shortened season, Mumford managed 10 games and Sam Jacobs played seven, and in 2019, Mumford played 16 games and Dawson Simpson played nine.
So, what’s the common denominator among games played by ruckmen at the Giants? They job share. Leon Cameron likes his rucks to share the load and the chances of Preuss remaining in the side for the next 19 games has to be low.
In saying that, if we look at the price fluctuation of the ruckmen in round 3, there were 16 that fell in price, while just seven went the other way. Todd Goldstein suffered the biggest fall, dropping by $45,900 after spending 46 per cent of game time as a forward across the first three rounds.
Gawn (-$41,100) and Rowan Marshall (-$30,700) also fell in price, and although the drop of Gawn is a blow on the bank balance, the fall of Marshall would be more of a concern. With Paddy Ryder integrated back into the St Kilda side, Marshall spent a season-high 51 per cent of game time in attack and the numbers back that up – managing just nine disposals and 57 points. He also attended just 44 ruck contests, also a season-low.
So, moving forward, does Brett Ratten continue to play Marshall, Ryder and Jack Hayes in the same team? I guess we’ll find out soon.
Speaking of Hayes, he didn’t attend any ruck contests in round 3, after attending a total of 18 in his first two matches.
ROOKIE WATCH
All roads lead to Nic Martin for SuperCoaches this week as the young Bomber is expected to boom in price after his next match. He returned to the side after missing round 2 and was a solid contributor against Melbourne, finishing with 20 disposals, 16 uncontested possessions, one score assist and 71 points. His numbers are strong, ranking No.1 at Essendon for marks per game, second for uncontested possessions and fourth for disposals, although the sample size isn’t that great at this stage.
At the basement low price, make him a priority if he isn’t in your side.
The much-anticipated Braydon Preuss debut eventuated last round as he replaced Matt Flynn in the ruck. Preuss was outstanding against Jarrod Witts, finishing with 16 disposals and 109 points. As highlighted above, if you are looking to make a switch in the ruck department, then it does come with the caveat that he may not play in every match for the rest of the year. Irrespective though, he’ll make you plenty of cash.
Elsewhere, Mitch Hinge continues to score well after a slow start, tallying 91 points in the Showdown on the back of 84 in round 2. If he’s on your bench, then you need to get him onto your field ASAP!
Teammate Josh Rachele’s scores have nose-dived since collecting 118 points on his AFL debut in Round 1, scoring 59 and just 36 in his next two games. If you benched him in the season opener and have played him on field in the last two weeks, you have to be bitterly disappointed. The 50m penalty against him late in the game against the Power was costly in the end, losing 11 points in total.
Paddy McCartin was excellent once again, scoring 61 points against the Bulldogs – posting a 100 per cent kicking efficiency. His intercept play was strong, but he did give away three free kicks, which is always disappointing from a SuperCoach point of view.
Looking at potential debutants, Elijah Hollands now has two games under his belt in the VFL, finishing with 22 disposals and 87 points on the weekend. Hopefully, he isn’t too far away. Teammate, James Tsitas dominated, finishing with 25 disposals, nine tackles and 144 points.
Richmond’s Tyler Sonsie had a day out, racking up 34 disposals, 16 contested possessions, 10 clearances and a whopping 171 points in just his second match in the VFL. Hopefully he gets his chance sooner rather than later.
As always, trade wisely and best of luck ahead of Round 4!
Trade guide: Is it too late for SuperCoach specials?
– Tim Michell and Al Paton
After a hectic week of KFC SuperCoach trading, the season has entered a new phase – with more big calls to be made.
Some popular picks are under the pump after putting out another disappointing score in round 3 while this could be the last chance to jump on some players who have started the season on fire.
Then there’s the dilemma in the ruck, where we might have a new KFC SuperCoach stud.
Tim English ($521,900 RUC/FWD) has emerged as a likely must-have for season 2022 after opening the campaign with scores of 123, 99 and 152.
Forward spots were at a premium for most KFC SuperCoaches who chose to partner the popular pairing of Josh Dunkley and Zak Butters with a host of mid-price options and rookies.
But those who went for English, either as their R2, F2 or F3, have been laughing all the way to the points bank in the opening three rounds.
The question for about 85 per cent of teams without the Western Bulldogs ruckman this week will be whether it’s too late to add him after his first price rise of the year.
English’s price jumped to $521,900 with a Break Even of 58 entering round 4.
That still looks great value for a player who has dominated the opening three rounds and looks certain to be a top-six forward at the end of the season based on current form.
KFC SuperCoach stats genius Brice Mitchell projects English will peak at about $580k in a month, so there’s still value in him despite missing out on the initial price rise.
Expect English to be one of the most popular targets ahead of Round 4 as coaches rush to jump on before it’s too late.
That is a question thousands of coaches will be asking themselves this week as popular cut-price options including English, George Hewett and Patrick Cripps climb in price.
Is it too late, or should you be prepared to pay extra not to miss out?
RAGE TRADES?
JACK CRISP (COLL) $542,900 DEF
Crisp won back his owners with a big score in round 2 but his third game was cause for more headaches. An underwhelming 85 points from 24 disposals in the Magpies’ loss to Geelong makes it two games out of three well short of the 105 average we paid for. The fact 13 of his touches were handballs, 19 were uncontested and he gave away five turnovers didn’t help Crisp’s cause, and he is set to bleed cash after falling well short of his 144 Break Even. But he still has an attractive role in the Magpies side, attending 16 centre bounces against the Cats, and there aren’t too many premium defenders scoring much better unless you missed the boat on George Hewett and want to play catch-up (more on that below).
Verdict: Might not be as consistent as we would like but shouldn’t drop much more in value. I’m keeping the faith ... for now.
ROWAN MARSHALL (StK) $506,100 RUC
Marshall started the season with 124 points and seemed a viable alternative to more expensive ruck options. But while the most expensive (and popular) rucks are still struggling a bit compared to what we have become accustomed to, Marshall’s scores have fallen off a cliff, scoring 67 and 58 in his past two games. Even worse, he spent most of the win against the Tigers in the goalsquare as Paddy Ryder returned to the No.1 ruck role. That could be good for earning potential dual-position status but not for his points returns in your ruck line. A swap to English or Braydon Preuss could be the way to go.
Verdict: Ryder’s return is big trouble. With a Break Even of 175 he’s set to lose a lot more than the $30,700 he dropped after round 4. A swap to English looks the smart play.
TOM MITCHELL (HAW) $580,300 MID
Many coaches pulled the pin on the Mitchell selection last week but if you still have him it might be time to cut your losses and walk away. Entering the clash against the Blues with a Break Even over 200, Mitchell spent early parts of the match trying to tag Patrick Cripps before finishing with 86 points – his third score in the 80s in as many rounds.
Verdict: What has happened to Titch? He has to go – you could make almost $80k by swapping him to Tom Green who has scored 164, 107 and 147. Hopefully we see a mid-season turnaround when his price will be extremely attractive as a trade-in target.
TOUK MILLER (GC) $656,300 MID
Miller ruined many coaches’ captaincy plans with his first score under 100 in 19 matches after copping some serious attention from Giant Lachie Ash.
Verdict: Don’t even think about it. Players are allowed one bad game. If you don’t have Touk, hope for more taggers – his Break Even is 173.
GIANT PREUSS POSER
What’s up with the rucks in 2022? Max Gawn finally scored his first 100-plus total of the season in round 3 but Brodie Grundy dropped under three figures and many other ruckmen are also battling to put up decent scores – Sam Draper played 76 minutes as Essendon’s No.1 ruck on Friday night and had two disposals and 21 points. (Tim English is the exception – don’t worry, we’re getting to him).
Enter Braydon Preuss. Playing his first game as a Giant and just the 19th of his career, Preuss – priced at just $204,700 in KFC SuperCoach – scored 109 points from 16 disposals, five marks, 12 contested possessions and 34 hitouts against the Suns.
If Preuss had been fit for round 1 many coaches were entertaining starting with one of the big dogs at R1 and Preuss at R2, and he now has to be seriously considered as a selection again – especially if he’s going to play one-out as the GWS No.1 ruck as he did on Saturday, with Matthew Flynn sent back to the VFL. It clearly worked, with the Giants winning the clearances 54-35 on the way to a convincing victory.
“It was good to see Preussy’s first game. I thought he gave us some really good confidence around stoppage,” coach Leon Cameron said post-match.
“I felt Braydon really led the charge. Hopefully our connection gets better and better.”
Swapping a starting ruck to Preuss would be a huge move but could free up a huge pot of cash to fix other areas of your team.
The safer play would be to pick him on the bench and let him do his thing as a money-making machine. If he continues to score like he did in round 3 he will add around $250,000 to his price tag in the next six weeks and could be priced at over $500,000 by the byes.
But that would raise the question – do you want a player scoring as well as your starting rucks sitting on the bench, especially if it costs you a RUC/FWD connection through the likes of Jack Hayes or Hugh Dixon?
Plenty to ponder before we have to make a call on Preuss entering his first price rise in round 5.
Of course, one answer to that would be to pick Preuss and this guy...
IT’S NOT TOO LATE
TIM ENGLISH (WB) $521,900 RUC-FWD
The case for: English is averaging 124.6 after three rounds, numbers which put him in premium territory as a ruckman and forward. In fact, English’s current average would far exceed the best average of any player listed as a forward in 2021. English is rated elite for disposals (23), contested possessions (11), clearances (seven) and score involvements (seven). Yes, it’s only early in the season, but if you had been guaranteed a top-six forward for $520k at the start of the campaign you would have likely jumped at it. If your ruckmen are Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy, for example, English can also provide DPP cover via Jack Hayes or Hugh Dixon in the event one of the big two misses through health and safety protocols. Saving a trade and using English as a ruckman for a week could make a huge difference later in the season.
The case against: Paying an extra $40k than other coaches always stings. Whether you’re prepared to make that extra sacrifice will come down the cash generation your team is likely to have. Having the right rookies should always be your priority this early in the season and if you missed Nic Martin, or any others, you’ll need to prioritise them over English. He’s looked so good in the first three weeks, it’s hard to find many question marks. The fact he hasn’t played with Stefan Martin yet is one, but English is showing all the hallmarks of a No.1 ruckman. It’s hard to see him being displaced when Martin eventually returns or being forced to play more in attack, as he did last year.
VERDICT: If you don’t have him, jump on now. $521k is still great buying for a player who looks primed to make the jump into premium status and could be a top-two or top-three ranked forward come the end of the year.
PATRICK CRIPPS (CARL) $518,800 MID
Cripps was the hottest player on the KFC SuperCoach trading floor last week when he was added to more than 33,000 teams. They would have been happy with his 119 points against the Hawks despite eight turnovers and missing a shot on goal for the first time this year, but it presents a dilemma for those coaches who still don’t have the Carlton captain. His price jumped $64,000 after his third game, but he’s still good value if you think he’ll be a top-eight scoring midfielder this season. If you feel a bit sick paying that much more than those who got him before his first price rise, keep in mind he’s still cheaper than his 2021 starting value.
Verdict: Cripps is the fourth highest-scoring midfielder in KFC SuperCoach in 2022 and budging him out of the top eight is going to be very tough. The value is still there.
GEORGE HEWETT (CARL) $453,700 DEF
Like Cripps, Hewett was a popular trade target last round, but he should still be in the crosshairs for the 45 per cent of coaches who don’t own the Blues pressure machine. He started slowly against the Hawks but had a monster second half – 18 disposals, six tackles, three intercepts – to register his third ton of the season. Importantly, it was his first game in a fully stocked Carlton midfield and Hewett’s key onball role didn’t seem to be seriously affected by playing alongside Cripps, Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra, attending 16 centre bounces and winning six centre clearances.
Verdict: Still fantastic value for a defender who looks capable of averaging 105 for the season. Don’t miss out.
TOM GREEN (GWS) $502,400 MID
The mid-price gun we all missed, Green is outscoring Cripps after starting the year cheaper than the Carlton skipper. After pumping out scores of 164, 106 and 147 in the opening three rounds, he enjoyed a $72,400 price rise and will only get more expensive. The question is can he maintain his ranking as the third highest-scoring player in KFC SuperCoach? That seems unlikely, but The Phantom wrote this about him before his 2020 debut season: “Green’s contested-ball numbers at the 2019 under-18 carnival were the best ever recorded by Champion Data and he could develop into a Patrick Cripps-like midfielder.” He started the week in 6 per cent of teams but that is likely to head north, though not as quickly as his average.
Verdict: The scoring power is hard to resist but who goes out of your midfield to get him in? Definitely one to put on your list of upgrade targets in a few weeks’ time.
JACK SINCLAIR (StK) $492,800 DEF
Hewett and the Blues have been getting all the attention but Sinclair has been flying under the radar as a mid-price defensive option this year – somewhat surprisingly, considering his luxuriant mullet. Sinclair has been given a key role by Brett Ratten and is often the Saints’ path from defence to attack, responding with three 100-plus scores to start the year. His average of 110 is the fifth-best of all defenders, and he’s set to keep climbing steeply in price over coming weeks – the Saints have Hawthorn and Gold Coast in their next two.
Verdict: A great option if you like a POD. Has outscored all of Crisp, Aaron Hall, Tom Stewart, Jordan Ridley and Daniel Rich this year.
OTHER KEY ROUND 4 TARGETS
NIC MARTIN (ESS) $102,400 FWD
The rookie revelation of 2022, SSP signing Martin is set for a steep price rise after playing his third game for Essendon in Round 4. He was immense on debut with 27 disposals and five goals in a team pummelled by Geelong, and backed up that effort with a composed game against reigning premier Melbourne (20 disposals, eight marks, 71 KFC SuperCoach points). Most teams already have Martin, but if you missed him in your starting side, this is the week to jump on. Martin is capable of being fielded at F5 or F6 and looms as one of the best cash cows of the year.
VERDICT: If you don’t have him by Round 4, it’s going to be a long season.
JACKSON MEAD (PORT) $157,200 MID
Another of The Phantom’s boys from South Australia, Mead was a shining light for Port Adelaide in its Showdown loss to the Crows. He’s likely to rise about $34k after his third game, which included one as Port’s sub. Mead finished with 18 disposals and four tackles against Adelaide, winning an impressive eight contested possessions. There will no doubt be some coaches who copped Dylan Stephens’ score of 23 on Thursday who are tempted to take the small profit and sideways trade him to Mead. Other options would be cashing in early on Josh Rachele or Jack Hayes, especially if Hayes fails to hold his spot now Paddy Ryder is back. It would cost you a trade, but at least that would keep the cash generation going.
VERDICT: Well done if you stayed patient with him. If his price rise had come in another two weeks, you could have considered trading Josh Rachele to him and making $120k or so. At this stage, that move probably isn’t worth it though.
JORDAN DAWSON (ADEL) $547,700 DEF
Is this the trade guide or an episode of the world-famous Phantom’s Lair podcast? Word is The Phantom is still partying after his favourite player Dawson defied physics to kick that after-the-siren goal on Saturday night and earn Adelaide a famous Showdown win. Many coaches overlooked the former Swan because of an interrupted pre-season but Dawson confirmed himself as a serious option with 123 points in the Showdown. He could have gone bigger too had Ken Hinkley not deployed Willem Drew to keep an eye on the Crows’ star recruit after halftime. Dawson’s price is likely to stay around $550k for a few weeks, which makes him more affordable than many other top defensive options. There’s also the possibility of MID status being added on the horizon before Round 6, too.
VERDICT: No urgency as his price shouldn’t spike too much from $550k, but he’s a great option if you need an extra premium defender.
JAKE BOWEY (MELB) $328,300 DEF
A price rise of almost $3k after Round 3 will likely put the young Demon out of reach for most coaches. But there’s still cash to be made if you’re desperate for a mid-price option to bridge the gap to a premium. If Bowey can continue to average 90-100 points, his price could peak at about round 8-9 at about $450k. That might be enough to trade him to a fallen premium in one move, should his scoring suffer when Christian Salem returns from injury. The most pleasing sign from Friday’s game against Essendon was Bowey’s disposal count dropped from 34 against Gold Coast to 18, yet he still posted 89 KFC SuperCoach points. Thanks to efficiency by foot and intercept possessions, that highlighted he doesn’t need huge disposal numbers to provide value for money.
VERDICT: It’s probably too late now. But if you’re desperate for a mid-price with some value, you need to jump on this week before another big price rise.
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