KFC SuperCoach 2022: All the late Round 4 mail and the experts’ trades revealed
A KFC SuperCoach rookie in more than 55,000 teams has been dropped – and there’s some doubt over the place of another. All the Round 4 late mail and expert trade advice.
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The Round 4 teams have delivered an early blow to KFC SuperCoach teams, and another could be on the way.
Young Swan Dylan Stephens has been dumped by John Longmire after finishing with just 10 disposals and 23 KFC SuperCoach points last weekend.
The third-year midfielder still added $34k to his price tag after an impressive 95-point display a week earlier.
But it’s a blow for the 7,500 KFC SuperCoaches who traded him following that performance against the Cats in Round 3.
Boom rookie Jack Hayes is the other big KFC SuperCoach name to keep an eye on over the next 24 hours.
He’s been named in St Kilda’s 25-man squad for Sunday’s clash with the Hawks but with last week’s sub Ben Long a confirmed starter, along with debutant Marcus Windhager, will Brett Ratten go with three talls again?
“We played tall and kicked 18 goals but we didn’t have as much pressure in our front-half,” Ratten admitted on Thursday.
“There’s a real balance there and they are the match committee converstations... if you kick 18 goals, it’s a pretty good day, so do we change the model or do we stick with it.”
There’s been nothing said to suggest it would be Hayes that makes way, but would he keep his spot over Paddy Ryder or Rowan Marshall?
The Saints’ final 22 will be confirmed at 5pm (EST) on Friday.
In good news - unless you’re looking for a non-playing loophole - Eagles Brady Hough and Hugh Dixon will play against Collingwood on Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile, Fremantle ruckman Sean Darcy will return against GWS, along with veteran David Mundy, but young gun Caleb Serong looks will miss another game with knee soreness.
SCROLL DOWN TO RECAP EXPERT Q&A + PHANTOM’S BURNING QUESTIONS
In another worry for coaches, Taggers are back to cause havoc in KFC SuperCoach.
Just ask anyone who had the captaincy on Touk Miller last round how they can ruin your weekend.
And Lachie Neale is in the crosshairs this week.
This was Brisbane coach Chris Fagan speaking after the last Lions v Cats meeting early last season: “I have spoken to people at the AFL just to have a little look at it. It wasn’t a major complaint at all, more on behalf of all midfielders who happen to get tagged.
“I don’t think anyone minds if it’s just a fair dinkum contest, but blocks and holds off the ball – that’s a different matter.”
Fagan was talking about the tactics of Cats stopper Mark O’Connor, who held Neale to 16 disposals and 75 KFC SuperCoach points. The Irishman hasn’t played a game yet this season, but guess who has to come into the Geelong team this week?
“I’m happy to put on the table that we’ll manage Joel Selwood out this week,” Geelong coach Chris Scott said this week, confirming O’Connor and Gryan Miers will come in for the Friday night encounter.
Quizzed about a possible Neale tag, Scott answered: “I won’t dodge your question on Mark O’Connor, I think he’ll play more mid this week.”
We aren’t questioning the Cats coach, but avoiding Neale as captain is probably the smart play.
There's no bigger certainty than Mark O'Connor coming into the team this week and playing on Lachie Neale on Friday night. #SuperCoach#AFLFantasy
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) April 4, 2022
Mitchell’s new role
The stats told us Tom Mitchell was spending more time forward this season, now the coach has confirmed it.
Huge disposal tallies might be good for winning Brownlows and KFC SuperCoach match-ups, but they don’t interest Sam Mitchell.
“It’s not that I don’t want that (Mitchell having big numbers), but at the moment that’s not what we’re after,” he said on Thursday.
“We’re continuing to evolve and make progress.
“We need to find ways to not be 18th for centre bounces, but we don’t want to lose our defensive running, which has held us in really good stead.
“We know that’s part of the game that is really important, which we’re focused on so far. But we can’t afford to be 18th for clearances for the whole year, so we’ll continue to evolve.”
Mitchell has already lost $57,800 from his starting price tag and is projected to drop another $38,000 after facing St Kilda this round. If you have him, he’s a must-trade, but those without him will be keeping a close eye on his forward time in the hope he earns FWD/MID status.
Experts reveal their round 4 trades
The trade savings bank is starting to see some major withdrawals.
A total of 35 trades at the start of the season seemed a lot, but for many coaches the tally is already much lower.
Should we sit tight this week or play hard in a bid to make up ground fast?
Strategy from here will separate tightly bunched teams in the overall rankings and private league standings, and our experts are already taking different paths with the number of trades being completed this week ranging from zero to three.
Scroll down to see what our experts have planned plus The Phantom answers this week’s burning KFC SuperCoach questions.
AL PATON
No trades
I’ve already used four trades and one of my five Trade Boosts, so I think it’s time to play a bit conservative. I’m happy with my moves so far (Dustin Martin to Tristan Xerri in round 2 and Lachie Whitfield, Mitch Owens and Mitch McGovern to Patrick Cripps, George Hewett and Will Brodie last week), now we need to let these guys earn a truckload of cash to allow me to start picking off some bigger targets in a few weeks.
I started with Nic Martin and I’m keeping the faith with Max Gawn despite his slow start – Tim English has looked amazing but he did get a little bit lucky last round with Tom Hickey getting hurt mid-game and Stef Martin ruled out due to Health and Safety protocols. He’s still a chance to come into my team at some point but I don’t think I need to jump right now. Next week it’s mission get Braydon Preuss.
THE PHANTOM
Darcy Parish to Tom Green (Maybe)
Now that Braydon Preuss is finally in the Giants side, and I’ll have Tristan Xerri as ruck back-up in a few weeks, I’m pretty happy with where my team is at. It’s now time to be patient and let the money roll in, before being aggressive with early upgrades, using the Trade Boosts. BUT, and it’s a significant but, I’m not sure I can watch Tom Green go on like he is any longer. I posed the question on social media, and the overwhelming response was “do it Phantom, you have to for the brand” – and I think the people are right. I still think Parish will hit his straps, starting against the Crows this week, but I think Green can outscore him from here. I’ll bank the $90k and – hopefully – have more fun watching this weekend.
🤔 #SuperCoachpic.twitter.com/AMNJswnRAk
— The Phantom (@ThePhantomSC) April 4, 2022
TIM MICHELL
Out: Patrick Voss, Rowan Marshall and Mitch McGovern
In: Braydon Preuss, Tim English and Nic Martin
While some of you were correcting rookies or premiums last week, I was laughing thinking my team was in good shape. I used two trades and thought I would get away without burning a boost early in the season. Then Tim English went out against Sydney and all but confirmed he’s going to be a top-six forward this year. It hurts paying a bit more than other coaches did but he’s still not very expensive at about $520k.
Mitch McGovern is injured and won’t get DEF status until at least mid-season now, so he’s an easy cash in to grab Nic Martin — who I took out of my side midway through round 1 to take Jack Hayes’ ton. Lesson learned. I could have traded Hayes to Preuss and banked some cash, but Hayes only needs Paddy Ryder to be managed and his cash generation could continue. Patrick Voss, who I started as a loophole, isn’t going to provide that.
I don’t like punting premiums and I was very bullish on Marshall, but he has looked out of sorts in the past two weeks and is bleeding cash. Maybe I’ll pick him up for $400k as a forward mid-season.
MARK ROBINSON
Tom Green in for Jarrod Berry
Tim English in for Rowan Marshall
With Paddy Ryder back Marshall will be playing more as a key forward for the Saints. How good is Green?
DAN BATTEN
Dylan Stephens to Thomson Dow
I’d put this is in the “unlikely to happen” pile after burning a trade boost last week, but this is a move I have pondered ahead of round 4. It may look like just a rage trade, but Dow was Richmond’s leading clearance and contested ball-winner against St Kilda and he has a -31 break even – that’s including an injury-affected score the week prior. Dion Prestia is set to return for the Tigers but Dow’s centre-bounce role should remain in the short term, where he has provided burst from stoppages. I would consider this more seriously if Stephens was dropped on Thursday night,
The Phantom answers this week’s burning questions
“It was good to see Preussy’s first game.”
Understatement of the year from Giants coach Leon Cameron on Saturday.
And Braydon Preuss’ performance in Round 3 leads to the hottest of burning KFC SuperCoach questions this week …
Can we trust Leon?
Not that one. I’m not answering that.
Is Preuss the man for R2?
That’s it. And my answer is yes.
Yes, I do already have him at R2 – after Sean Darcy’s Round 1 injury – but I do really think he’s the man to solve your ruck issues.
After tallying 21 contested possessions and 140 KFC SuperCoach points in the VFL, while Matt Flynn struggled – another understatement – against the Tigers, Preuss finally made his GWS debut, 15 months after he was traded to the club.
And he didn’t disappoint, finishing with 16 disposals, 12 contested possessions, nine hitouts-to-advantage and 109 points in 69 per cent game-time against Jarrod Witts.
“I thought he (Preuss) really did the lead the charge …. our connection hopefully just gets better and better,” Cameron said post-match.
“I thought he gave us a lot of confidence around stoppage.”
The 26-year-old attended 71 ruck contests – the fourth-most of any big man in Round 3.
Sure, there’s risk, particularly around Cameron’s two-ruck comments on Saturday and the fact Preuss has played just four AFL games since 2019.
“Where we end up in the next month with those two rucks is intriguing,” the Giants coach said of the prospect of Matt Flynn returning to the side.
But, with Paddy Ryder returning and Jack Hayes holding his place, Rowan Marshall played alongside two other ruckmen in Round 3 and attended the 15th-most ruck contests (44).
St Kilda coach Brett Ratten says they “will have a look that (the three talls) and work out which way we go” but Hayes didn’t do any ruckwork, anyway.
If I had Marshall, I’d be cashing him in for Preuss.
Given the GWS big man has only played one game, you don’t need to jump on this week. Problem is, Marshall’s price will fall by another $30k even with a KFC SuperCoach ton.
Take the cash and improve your side elsewhere, immediately.
Or is it Tim English?
After 24 disposals, 11 contested possessions, 10 hitouts-to-advantage, eight clearances and 152 points against the Swans, pushing his three-round average to 125, English is fast-becoming the elite KFC SuperCoach premium we’ve all been hoping he’d become.
Sure, Stefan Martin is likely to come back in to help out at some point, but coach Luke Beveridge wants English as the No. 1 ruckman, and he can do things – marking around the ground and run and carry the ball, in particular – that no other big man, let alone Martin, can do.
The Western Bulldogs gun looms as a must-have forward in KFC SuperCoach, and is still great buying at $521k.
Ideally, you bring in English as a forward with the money you make from the Preuss trade, giving you a fallback option if Leon pulls a swifty.
Would he do that?
Where does Max Gawn fit into all of this?
Good question. I said last week we needed more time, given the lack of confidence in replacements.
Gawn was better, finishing with 117 points against the Bombers, but there are still a few concerning signs. If you jumped off for English last week, consider it a win.
I’m not sure $95k is worth it this week after the Melbourne skipper’s KFC SuperCoach ton.
But if you’re set on dumping Gawn, I prefer the Preuss money-play route.
Brodie Grundy?
Nah. Two KFC SuperCoach tons to start, then a 96-point score which was heavily affected by eight clangers, four of them free kicks against.
Back to Preuss, could I trade him in for the cash generation alone?
Ask me again next week, but start thinking about how you could do it. With four more similar scores, Preuss will be worth more than $400k by Round 7.
Back to dumping premiums, what’s happened to Tom Mitchell?
The Hawthorn gun has spent 19 per cent more time forward and attended less centre bounces so far in 2022. As a result of the increased role across half-forward, his major weapon – prolific ball-winning – has taken a hit, with Mitchell averaging 9 less disposals per game this season.
Waiting for me to say the Hawks need him in there?
Hawthorn was -10 in centre bounce clearances when Mitchell was in attendance against the Blues.
His price fell by almost $60k in Round 3 and, with a breakeven of 176, could fall below $550k next week.
With your premium keepers, price movement is something you shouldn’t really worry about, but if this role and trend continues with Mitchell, he’s unlikely to bother the top-10 midfielders in KFC SuperCoach.
If you didn’t do it last week, I’d take Patrick Cripps and $60k and run.
I have Cripps, what about Tom Green?
I was hoping you didn’t ask. I was initially happy watching his first two games – scores of 164 and 106 proved I wasn’t crazy last year, just too excited, too early.
But after another 147 points, on the back of 29 disposals, a game-high 16 contested possessions and two goals, I’m not sure I can watch on any longer. I might have to jump on.
Mitchell to Green I would do, if you already have Cripps.
What about Darcy Parish to Green?
No, I’m asking you.
🤔 #SuperCoachpic.twitter.com/AMNJswnRAk
— The Phantom (@ThePhantomSC) April 4, 2022
Which other premiums will fall?
Touk Miller is the one to watch. Despite back-to-back 140s to start the season, the Gold Coast co-captain lost $21k off his price tag, and faces a big Round 4 breakeven of 173, after being tagged by Giant Lachie Ash on the weekend.
KFC SuperCoach Plus tells me even if he scores 132 and 127 in the next two weeks, his price will fall below $620k.
Anything lower, and a sub-$600k Miller could be on the cards. It’s true, though, he could go 140 again.
Patrick Dangerfield (Breakeven: 177), Rory Laird (166), Sam Walsh (163) and Mitch Duncan (159) are other big names set for a significant price drop.
But it’s not upgrade season just yet.
Is the tagger back?
Giants coach Cameron commended Ash’s “selfless” effort to restrict Miller, but he was also helped by resident tagger Matt De Boer.
Ash was the one to stop Bomber Darcy Parish in his tracks late last season, and we all know what De Boer has done to the big KFC SuperCoach names in the past.
GWS play Fremantle and Andy Brayshaw this week, and then Melbourne and Clayton Oliver/Christian Petracca in Round 5.
Just be aware.
Is it time to trade Josh Rachele out?
I just said it wasn’t upgrade season, which also means it’s not time to chop our rookies.
But after a 36-point score in the Showdown, the young Crow’s breakeven has pushed out to 42, and many KFC SuperCoaches are considering their options.
From last night's game:
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) April 1, 2022
Jordan Dawson scored 18.95 points for his goal (effective kick + goal).
Josh Rachele lost 11.09 points for the 50m penalty.#SuperCoach
I’ll be holding a little longer, though. I was there on Friday night and the 19-year-old was pretty good in the second half, especially when he played higher up the ground. Two first-quarter free kicks against, an out-on-the-full in the second and that last-minute 50-metre penalty, which almost cost Adelaide the game, severely affected his score.
I think Rachele, who attended five centre bounces in Round 3, has another 70-point score in him over the next couple of weeks and that will see his cash generation kick in to gear again.
Be content with making no trades this week, friends.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2022: All the late Round 4 mail and the experts’ trades revealed
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