KFC SuperCoach AFL: Burning questions ahead of Round 12
Mitch Owens scored two KFC SuperCoach points on debut and has a bye this week — how could he be the best buy of Round 12? We explain in this week’s burning questions.
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What a weekend for Tims.
Tim English finally returned for my KFC SuperCoach side and despite my reservations, he dominated against West Coast.
That’s left KFC SuperCoaches with a huge question about when to bring the No. 1 averaging forward of 2022 into their teams.
Do you jump on now or after the Round 13 bye?
There’s new DPPs to think about, the first bye round and the mid-season draft this week too.
It’s going to be a huge week as KFC SuperCoaches plan to navigate the first of three byes.
The Phantom is still away — did we mention he’s now 131st overall?
Hopefully this bumper edition of Burning Questions can help solve all your Round 12 dilemmas.
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How many should I have playing this week?
Obvious answer, but a minimum of 18. If you have the bare minimum in the bye rounds, it’s crucial to nail your vice-captaincy loophole or captaincy choice in case you are carrying players who get injured or score poorly. Round 12 is traditionally the toughest of the byes as coaches ideally don’t want to be trading in players who will then have a bye in Round 13 or 14. If you’ve planned ahead, hopefully you have 19 or 20 available this round and you can drop the worst two scores out of your best 18. That might give you an extra 50-100 point edge over other coaches.
Can I trade in Round 12 if I don’t have 18?
Of course you can, but you’re best advised not to — especially if trades involve premiums. Say you bring in Max Gawn ahead of Round 12, just because his price has all but bottomed out, you’ll then have a hole you need to fill in Round 14 when he has a bye. If you have 16 or 17 and have rookies who have peaked in price, they’re the most expendable. Think Josh Gibcus or Nic Martin who both have Round 12 byes. You could fill your bank to grab premiums coming off the bye in Round 13 by trading Gibcus and/or Martin to rookies playing in Round 12. Rookies will be much easier to cover come Round 13 or 14 than a missing premium you sideways swapped into your side.
Should I still have boosts available?
Seriously, how good are boosts? Many KFC SuperCoaches have told me it’s the best change to the game in years and I can’t disagree — although I do love an in-season DPP switch. Many KFC SuperCoaches have used their five boosts to aggressively upgrade their team and reach full premium status (or close to) before the byes. Others have played conservatively and held at least 1-2 for a rainy day. As it stands there’s no perfect answer. If carnage hits one week and four popular players miss, then coaches who held a boost will be laughing. But there’s no guarantee that will happen (touch wood) and until it does, I’d rather be in the group of coaches who have full-premium sides.
You’re tempting fate by taking about carnage.
Yes, I am.
Why then?
If the mighty Blues can be a top-four challenger at the midway point of the season then anything is possible, even a KFC SuperCoach season without premium carnage.
You barrack for Carlton – why isn’t George Hewett in your side?
A question I ask myself every week. Easily my worst move this year has been continuing to fade him. I tell myself it’s because I don’t want to jinx him for Carlton’s sake. But really, his price is just out of reach now. Hewett and Will Brodie have been two of the great bargains in KFC SuperCoach history.
You have appointed yourself the DPP guru – who’s the best trade option of the pre-Round 12 additions?
Can I name three? Tim English is No.1, followed very closely by Bailey Smith and Marcus Bontempelli. OK, English already had DPP but he was incredible on his return against West Coast, scoring 160 to have a break even of 55 this week. He could be as much as $630k come Round 14 when Western Bulldogs come off the bye. If you’re still going to have 18-19 players next round, grab one of Bontempelli, English or Smith before their prices gets out of reach.
Wait, didn’t you say don’t trade this round?
I did.
But now we can?
Ideally no, but if you have the cash and are in the market for an extra premium, English, Bontempelli and Smith are going to be must-haves as forwards.
I’m confused, Tim.
Me too.
Let’s get back on track. Should I plan to hold Patty McCartin through his bye?
Didn’t you ask a variation of this question last week? McCartin has not scored less than 75 in his past four matches, producing a KFC SuperCoach average of 82.3 from rounds 8-11 — 94, 75, 85 and 75. Reborn as a defender after overcoming concussion issues to be drafted by Sydney, McCartin has all but peaked in price at more than $350k. He might have another $10-$15k to make, but that is largely irrelevant on whether you plan to trade or not. If you think you’re going to need DEF-FWD cover during the run home, find a way to hold. The aggressive play – which most coaches are likely to take – will be to say thanks for the memories and punt him Round 13. That’s what I am leaning towards.
Sam De Koning (77.8) and Patty McCartin (82.3) have had a very good month in SC
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) May 28, 2022
What about Sam De Koning?
Likely gone at the Round 13 bye as well. You might be able to trade McCartin and De Koning to an uber premium coming off the Round 12 bye and a rookie — think GWS’ Jacob Wehr or St Kilda’s Mitch Owens (more on his below). That’ll boost your numbers by two players for Rounds 13 and 14 and give you an extra premium for the run home.
What’s happened to Isaac Heeney? Should I persist?
It always seemed likely Heeney’s score would revert to his norm of a 90-100 average after an incredible start to 2022. Heeney opened the year with scores of 141, 140, 131 and 112 in his first five matches and looked to have made the jump to uber-premium status. Was it a false dawn? Maybe. He only has one ton in his last six games, which have included scores of 81, 75, 92, 94 and 53. The Swan star had less than 30 points with about 10 minutes to play against Richmond before a late goal boosted him above 50. He’s one of the players who has gained DPP and has a huge ceiling, so I would stick fat for this round. If you’re still frustrated at Round 13 and don’t have the full set of Bontempelli, Smith and English, then make the move then.
How soon do I need Tim English?
Didn’t we already talk about him? OK, I’ll indulge you a bit more. Let’s say Round 14 at the latest. English’s 160-point return against West Coast vindicated the six weeks (months?) of holding him. Whether you’re fielding him as a RUC or FWD, he should be in every serious KFC SuperCoach side. You just risk losing too much ground without the big guy.
TIM ENGLISH I LOVE YA https://t.co/9BSZrQtMxH
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) May 28, 2022
Is Jarrod Witts going to be this year’s No. 1 ruck?
He’s in the top-five points scorers of the year full stop at this stage. Who saw that coming? Witts has jumped by $236k, has not scored less than 113 in his last six games and has 73 more points than Max Gawn after Round 11. I’m backing Max to reel him in, but it’s going to be close. Witts’ career-best season coming off an ACL has been incredible. If you started him, well done.
Will Touk Miller be the best buy of the byes after Round 13?
Wow. Say that five times quickly. He’s projected to be about $549k, although it’s worth noting he takes on North Melbourne this round. If you don’t have him, I’d still try and hold off until post-bye due to that 173-point break even — famous last words! Miller will be one of the great fallen premiums to grab in coming weeks but there’s going to be no shortage on offer.
Mitch Owens scored 2 on debut. I can’t really get him in Round 13 can I?
Let’s talk next week – but on Sunday’s evidence it’s a yes. Owens’ pressure was through the roof against North Melbourne and he finished with 10 tackles from 12 tackle attempts. He also kicked two goals from 14 disposals. You could even bring Owens in this week, as he’s surely bought himself at least another week or two in the Saints’ team. If he can score another 50 or 60 in rounds 13 and 14, he might be the number which gets you to 18 players those weeks.
How many trades should I plan to have when the byes finish?
History has proven you will likely need somewhere from 8-10. Remember last year, when many coaches were caught out in the last round when Mr Durable Tom Stewart and Jack Ziebell were unavailable? You might have reached full premium by Round 12 — with Will Brodie, Greg Clark and a few reliable cheapies thrown in – but there’s almost no doubt you’ll need to sideways a premium or two during the run home. Keeping a few trades up your sleeve for a gun rookie or two who emerges in the second half of the season is always wise too.
How'd we go, #SuperCoach friends?
— The Phantom (@ThePhantomSC) May 29, 2022
2539 for me - up to 131 overall. Ended up using last boost to get Bont in.
When is the Phantom back?
That, my friends, is still a great question. You’re stuck with me for the byes (unless he makes a cameo appearance). After that – and likely with a full premium side to boot – The Phantom will be back for the run home in KFC SuperCoach. With no boosts left and my trades dwindling, I’m glad it won’t be me answering the tough questions in the last eight weeks of the campaign. I’ll have enough to worry about with my own side.
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