KFC SuperCoach 2021: The Phantom’s burning questions ahead of Round 2
Dustin Martin is the easy swap for Patrick Dangerfield, but why not look for KFC SuperCoach value? The Phantom's burning Round 2 questions.
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Ah, Round 1, you crazy thing.
Rookies Matt Flynn, Errol Gulden and James Rowe, three players whose combined value is $385,500, outscored the trio of Max Gawn, Lachie Neale and Patrick Dangerfield - all $2,085,100 of it – by 121.
Taylor Walker was the 5th-ranked scorer of the round, three of the top-five players are in less than three per cent of teams, Alex Witherden wasn’t even picked – and you thought I was angry at Horse – Dangerfield chose to bump his former teammate after he’d kicked it, poor Matt Rowell looks to have suffered a knee injury and a 34-year-old veteran big man, who averaged 51 points last season, took Brodie Grundy to the cleaners.
I’ve missed you, KFC SuperCoach.
There were enough gags over the weekend, I don’t need to make anymore.
We’ve got some big questions to get through.
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Grundy is finished, we should trade him, right?
No.
I could just leave it at that but I won’t. On the eye, his performance wasn’t great on Friday night and his 70-point score reflected it.
But it’s only one game – and he’s started slowly before. Grundy has only ever passed three figures once in a Round 1 fixture. In 2018 and 2019, the years he averaged 130 points per game, he kicked off the season with scores of 95 and 81.
Imagine dropping him then. His price fell from $708k in 2019, sure, but, by Round 11, he was worth $694k again.
What about if he struggles again on Thursday night?
Well, then you could start to consider it. Another low score would ensure a dramatic price fall and the thought of ‘shorting’ Grundy – as the SuperCoach Investor Dan Begala likes to put it – and spending the money elsewhere, playing Matt Flynn before trading him back to Grundy, is one we’d all need to, at least, entertain.
Flynn’s price rise could be dramatic after his remarkable 140-point performance on debut. Even if he scores 75 in each of the next two matches, his first cash injection will be in excess of $100k.
A second consecutive sub-par score from Grundy will make Flynn’s task of closing the price gap easier. And that’s how you should be thinking, considering almost certainly you will want Grundy back.
Grundy's 71 means he needs to score 291 points across the next 2 games to hold his price. Back to back 110s would see him drop by 30k+ #SuperCoachpic.twitter.com/juKJvojqIn
— Empr (@Empr_X) March 19, 2021
Are you underselling Flynn, Phantom?
Maybe. But, as impressive as he was – with his strength at the contest and his ability around the ground – can he really get anywhere near the big two across the course of the season? I don’t think so.
And what about coach Nathan Buckley’s comments?
“We want Brodie to be supported by a second ruckman…we’d like that to be a legitimate tandem ruck role,” Buckley said on Monday.
“We believe Brodie can do some damage for us in front of the ball…we’ll be looking to explore that through the early part of this year.”
Um. Err. I don’t love those comments, but I’m tipping he will still get enough time in the ruck to assert his dominance. Buckley also said “I’m backing my guy”.
Does the above apply to all of the other top-end premiums who failed?
Yes. Do what Bucks said.
What about Dangerfield?
Different story, of course. The star Cat will miss three weeks, which means it’s time to trade.
In the past, I’ve pulled the trigger in similar situations, with players who are among the best in their positions and ones you want in your final team, and it hasn’t worked out long-term.
And, despite how much you want to chase points now, KFC SuperCoach is a long game.
Insert marathon cliché here.
In terms of trade options, though, Dustin Martin ($541k) and Josh Dunkley ($560k) are the other certainties in the forward line if you started without either.
Isaac Heeney ($454k) starred in a pure forward role but is there more value in Jaidyn Stephenson ($354k) the midfielder, after the former Magpie attended 10 centre bounces and tallied 33 disposals, 15 handball-receives and five clearances? Maybe.
See more options in the Round 2 trade guide here.
Sorry to interrupt, but is Callum Mills now officially a midfielder?
Yep - and these numbers prove it.
Centre bounces attended: 22 (Ranked 2nd for Swans)
POSITION SPLIT
Wing: 14%
Midfield: 74%
Forward: 12%
Defence: 0%
STATS
29 disposals
86 per cent efficiency
10 score involvements
8 marks
7 contested possessions
6 groundball gets
3 clearances
433 metres gained
Could I swing Dangerfield into the middle and trade him to a midfield premium?
Absolutely. And, given the uncertainty about the forward line, if you already have both Martin and Dunkley, it could be the way to go.
Apart from popular top-end options Jack Macrae ($650k) and Clayton Oliver ($656k), who both scored well in Round 1, there are a couple of other names to consider.
Sam Walsh ($543k) was one I did get right, after the Carlton midfielder starred on Thursday night, finishing with 31 disposals, 13 contested possessions, six clearances and 122 points against the Tigers. A game-high four free kicks against brought his final score down, too.
Round 1’s highest scorer Travis Boak ($590K), who tallied a huge 160 points in a dominant performance against the Kangaroos, is only in 2.8 per cent of teams, while Brownlow Medallist, and the guy who averaged 129 points per game in 2018, Tom Mitchell ($610k), is only in 3.6 per cent of all sides.
Most KFC SuperCoaches were scared off by his very limited pre-season – he was touch-and-go for Round 1 all the way until the week of.
But he had 17 of his 39 disposals in a blistering third quarter to get the Hawks back into the game. His shoulder is fine.
Speaking of midfield premiums, what about Matt Rowell?
Unfortunately, the young Sun is a must-trade.
The club is hopeful it’s not a serious long-term knee injury but it’s likely to keep him out for six weeks - long enough to trade in KFC SuperCoach.
If you don’t have spare cash to get up to the names above, however, it’s a tricky price bracket.
Giant Tim Taranto ($453k), who posted a KFC SuperCoach ton against the Saints, despite a quiet first-half, is the obviously like-for-like replacement. Both in terms of price and his keeper potential.
Bailey Smith ($494k), Adam Cerra ($484k) and Andrew McGrath ($510) are all stars now, each scoring in excess of 122 in Round 1, but can they finish in the top 8-10 in the midfield?
I’m more confident in a player, at that price, to do so in defence. So, if you have Rory Laird down back, swing him in and consider trading Rowell to a defender in the same price bracket.
Who are the best options?
Young Saint Hunter Clark ($438k), started at the first bounce and one was of the Saints’ best against the Giants, handling the ball better than any player in wet conditions. The breakout year is on.
Like he did in the AAMI Series, Steven May ($507k) played on from more kick-ins than any other player in Round 1 in a starring performance for the Demons, which saw him finish with 24 disposals – 21 of them kicks – five intercept marks, 567 metres gained and 117 KFC SuperCoach points. Don’t forget, May averaged 111 points in the final seven games of last season.
And then there’s Zac Williams ($458k), who will play his first game as a Blue after serving his one-game ban. There’s risk, sure, but the ceiling is high.
Why else should I be trading this week?
You have four trades before the first round of price changes occur at the completion Round 3. So, if you started without two or more on the list below, and escaped the carnage, you should consider trading this week. You may have other corrective trades to do before the prices move – and who knows what will happen this weekend.
Errol Gulden (MID $117,300) – 139 points
Matt Flynn (RUCK $123,900) – 140
Jack Ziebell (FWD $257,900) - 113
James Rowe (FWD $117,300) – 104
Jack Ziebell to emulate Matty Boyd down back. Played on from 9 of 10 kick-ins today. #SuperCoach#AFLFantasy#AFLRoosPower
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) March 21, 2021
Another big performance from Melbourne’s James Jordon ($123k MID – 78) and Chad Warner ($144k FWD – 70), could also push them into must-have rookie territory. They didn’t pass three figures but both were equally as impressive in their sides’ midfield in Round 1.
A good test to see who actually reads what I write 😬. Both No. 1 in my #SuperCoach rookie rankings by position for most of the pre-season pic.twitter.com/SqFD832RYy
— The Phantom (@ThePhantomSC) March 20, 2021
Is that it?
Yes, sorry, it was a big first week. Well, not for me personally - I finished with an underwhelming 1952 - but you know what I mean.
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2021: The Phantom’s burning questions ahead of Round 2
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