KFC SuperCoach 2021: The Phantom answers the burning questions ahead of Round 4
KFC SuperCoaches need to start worrying about taggers again. Here’s a look at who the game’s newest stopper could target next. Plus all the burning questions answered.
SuperCoach
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperCoach. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Another big week of KFC SuperCoach means another big round of burning questions.
From trade concerns and rookie numbers to Brett Ratten and Christian Petracca’s kicking, here’s my take on the big issues ahead of Round 4.
Should you be trading this week?
It’s a question I’ve asked myself every round so far. But this is the week to carefully think about the answer.
It’s likely you’ve just made two corrective trades ahead of player prices changes, as well as replaced one of Patrick Dangerfield and Matt Rowell, or both, after Round 1.
So, can you really use another two this week?
Avoid doing so, if you can. Yes, I know you hear it all the time, but, even though 30 feels like a lot at the start of the season, it really isn’t.
Think about how many players you would like to upgrade in your current side.
Watch the 2021 Toyota AFL Premiership Season. Every match of every round Live on Kayo. New to Kayo? Try 14-Days Free Now >
I know it depends on whether boom rookies Errol Gulden and Chad Warner can maintain their scoring, or if Jarman Impey can average 90 points from here and hold down the F6 spot.
But even if all that goes your way, it’s likely to be at least seven – and that’s probably without counting the mid-price tease who is averaging 85.
That means, if you’re trading one down and one up to get an extra premium, that’s 14 trades. But, given some of the cash generation of some of the second-tier rookies has already stalled, it’s unlikely you will be able to make seven upgrades by only making seven downgrades. So let’s add three more.
That’s 17 without taking into account injuries, suspension, general soreness and the bye rounds.
Just keep it in mind.
But, in saying all that, there are reasons to pull the trigger.
What is the main one then, Phantom?
Injury has to be at the top of the list. If you have hamstrung Docker Hayden Young, trading him down to rookie teammate Heath Chapman, who has a Round 4 breakeven of -41, ticks two big boxes – because jumping on the right money train is the other main reason to trade.
You should have Errol Gulden but if you started without his teammate Chad Warner, who starred against the Tigers, recording the first KFC SuperCoach ton of his career, it’s time to get on. His price has already increased by $84k but, with a breakeven of -72 – the lowest in the competition – he could be set for an even bigger jump. And he looks more than capable of holding down an on-field spot in the forward for a while yet.
Even if we have to trade up?
A good question. Ideally, you go down from a shaky mid-price option but, if you have the cash, turning a non-playing rookie, like Miles Bergman or Tyler Brockman if he’s dropped, is also definitely worth considering.
TRADE GUIDE: ALL THE OPTIONS TO CONSIDER IN ROUND 4
Any other rookies to consider?
Another Docker – and running machine – Stefan Giro has been flying under the KFC SuperCoach radar after he was the sub in Round 1. And, before that, he was in the wilderness for two years after tearing his ACL in 2019, following his 10-game debut season of 2018.
But he tallied 20 disposals, eight marks, six score involvements, 483 metres gained and 87 points against Carlton on Sunday, bringing about a Round 4 breakeven of -50.
And his KFC SuperCoach numbers as a junior were, well, I’ll let you see for yourself.
SANFL under-18s, 2017: 175
SANFL reserves, 2017: 124
Under-18 national carnival, 2017: 99
SANFL under-18s, 2016: 155
SANFL reserves, 2016: 104
What about downgrade options over the next few weeks?
Glad you asked. Second-year Lions midfielder Deven Robertson was also a KFC SuperCoach star as a junior. The 19-year-old averaged 153 points at WAFL Colts level and 123 at the national under-18 championships in his draft year.
Robertson broke through for one game in his debut season but was pushed out given the strength of Brisbane’s midfield.
But he played his second game last Thursday, tallying 17 disposals, nine contested possessions, seven marks, seven tackles and 83 points.
Robertson isn’t cheap at $176k but he’s a dual-position midfielder-forward who will have a very low Round 5 breakeven with another solid performance against the Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon.
Speaking of low breakevens, Bomber Alec Waterman is also likely to have exactly that after the basement-price forward finished with two goals and 81 points on debut. We’ll be talking more about him - and $102k defender Luke Parks - next week.
Is it too late to jump on the mid-price money trains?
You mean, Tex Walker? No. I just wouldn’t be paying $200k to go up to him from a rookie. From another failed mid-price could be the go.
Walker leads the competition for goals, shots at goal and score involvements and he’s up against North Melbourne in Round 4. With another bag of goals, he could get close to $500k after this weekend – and become the most-expensive forward very soon.
What if I don’t have Ziebell?
Ask yourself why. But, seriously, while he may be up to $341k now, Ziebell is the fourth-highest averaging forward and, given his KFC SuperCoach-friendly role in North’s defence – where the ball will be A LOT – he looms as a keeper. Forget Tex, jump on now.
Phantom, you talked up Hunter Clark. What happened?
Brett Ratten happened. Clark was the Saints most-effective midfielder in the Round 1 win over the Giants.
In the past two matches, however, he’s spent more time in defence – and on the bench. Surprise, surprise, they lost both times.
But with Jade Gresham out for the year, and after what the club dished up against the Bombers, Ratten could shake things up.
I’m giving it another week – he’s too good a player to jump off now.
Clayton Oliver, what happened?
Matt de Boer happened. The Giant, who played more as a high half-forward in the opening two matches, assumed his tagging role against the Demons, holding Oliver to zero effective disposals in the opening term. De Boer hurt his hamstring in the third quarter and Oliver’s scoring picked up, with the star Demon tallying 53 points after de Boer left the field.
Do we need to start planning around taggers again?
Yep. After restricting Lachie Neale in Round 2, Geelong’s Mark O’Connor was assigned the role of stopping Hawk Tom Mitchell on Monday. And he did another impressive job. Mitchell may have worked his way into the game to finish with 89 points but O’Connor was all over the Brownlow Medalist in the first half.
O’Connor’s possible upcoming targets
Round 4: Clayton Oliver
Round 5: Jy Simpkin, Jack Ziebell
Round 6: Andrew Gaff, Tim Kelly
Round 7: Callum Mills, Luke Parker, Chad Warner (!?)
Round 8: Dustin Martin
Round 9: Jack Steele
What’s up with Christian Petracca?
He’s not kicking it to his teammates – it’s that simple really.
Petracca, who averaged 117 KFC SuperCoach points in his long-awaited breakout season of 2020, has tallied three more clangers than any other player in the competition.
In KFC SuperCoach terms, Petracca commited an act which resulted in -5 points on 22 occasions this season. And it’s his kicking which has let him down the most.
The 25-year-old’s kicking efficiency of 44.9 per cent is the worst of the top 70 players in the competition for total kicks.
With scores of 98, 92 and 83, Petracca’s price fell by $43k this week and, with a Round 4 breakeven of 170, it’s likely to fall again.
It’s a similar story for Collingwood’s Taylor Adams, who has 18 clangers to his name and a kicking efficiency of 47.6 per cent over the first three rounds. But Adams is winning less of the ball than Petracca, and having less impact on the game in other ways, averaging just 76 points and falling to $536k.
Should we trade them out?
Not just yet, but it’s a concern.
They will come into the conversation as fallen premiums in KFC SuperCoach soon but they both need to tidy it up before potential owners should consider jumping on - even at a discounted price.
Trade grades: Experts rate most popular round 8 moves
Which rookies are ready to go – and how should we be using that cash? Experts give their verdict on the most traded players this week.
Mixed news for star Cats defenders as rookie in the frame
Tom Stewart played out the game on Sunday, but will he be right to face Collingwood? Plus, the latest on Jack Henry, Gryan Miers and young midfielder Mitch Knevitt.