Champion Data SuperCoach formguide: Trade tips, key match-ups for Round 4

WHO should replace Liam Ryan and Gary Ablett? And is this our last chance to grab a Giant bargain? The stats gurus at Champion Data reveal all the intel you need for a Round 4 SuperCoach assault. PLUS TRADE OF THE WEEK

Cats training at Deakin Esava Ratugolea.

WHO is worthy of a trade for the GOAT?

Gary Ablett made a flying start to his second coming at Geelong but is a must-trade after pinging a hamstring against the Eagles. Liam Ryan also has to go after suffering a serious ankle injury in the same game.

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What are the best trade options? Read on for the best inside information from Champion Data, providers of the stats that power SuperCoach.

HIPAGES TRADE OF THE WEEK

Injured Eagle Liam Ryan has been traded out of more than 32,000 SuperCoach teams this week — way ahead of the second-most traded Gary Ablett (7000).

SuperCoach trade of the week.

But there isn’t a strong consensus on who “Flyin’ Ryan” should be traded for — in fact, the top five trades this week all involve replacing him with different players.

The most popular pick is Cat Jack Henry (9077 trades), who has shown a lot of promise as an intercept defender in his first two games — and should hold his place at least until Lachie Henderson or Harry Taylor return from injury.

Docker Mitch Crowden is the second-most popular pick (7119 trades) ahead of makeshift Cats ruckman Esava Ratugolea.

And at No.5 is Bulldogs defender Ed Richards, which requires a bit of dual-position trickery such as moving James Sicily from defence to the forward line to create a backline vacancy.

FORMGUIDE

Ablett’s hamstring injury will affect close to 15,000 SuperCoaches this week. The prognosis is that he’ll miss a few weeks but considering that it’s his second hamstring injury this year and his age, the smart move is to trade him out.

There is no shortage of viable replacements and in terms of value for money, there is no one better than Stephen Coniglio. He ranks fourth in the competition for points scored among midfielders and costs less than $500,000. He has outperformed teammate Josh Kelly, is currently in career-best form and with a break-even score of just 53 points, he won’t be this cheap for much longer.

Jack Macrae has started the year in brilliant form.

Stephen Coniglio is the Giants’ No. 1 ranked midfielder. Picture. Phil Hillyard

If you’re looking for a point of difference, then Jack Macrae stands out like a beacon. With an ownership abound 2900, he has started the year in blazing fashion, piling on scores of 120, 142 and 131 in that order. He currently ranks second behind Tom Mitchell for points scored for his position. Macrae has a break-even score of 88 points ahead of this round’s clash against Sydney.

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Another POD to consider is Jarryd Lyons. After being tagged by Ben Jacobs in the season opener, he has responded with 152 and 138 points from his past two games. He ranks equal No. 1 in the competition for contested possessions since Round 2 and second for clearances behind Tom Mitchell. Lyons comes up against West Coast this week — a team that has given up the most SuperCoach points to midfielders this season.

ROOKIES

The form line of the 2018 rookie crop is starting to take shape. We can now trust the likes of Tom Doedee, Sam Murray, Jeremy Finlayson, Tim Kelly and Nick Holman to start on the field and expect a solid score in return, as they all provided SuperCoaches with in Round 3.

Sadly, however, the options in the forward-line are starting to dry up, with Zac Giles-Langdon and now Liam Ryan both going down through injury in successive weeks. In the case of Ryan, he was just starting to find his feet at AFL level, ranking third at the club for scoreboard impact.

Esava Ratugolea has been a surprise packet for Geelong. Picture: Glenn Ferguson

Ryan will be sidelined for up to 12 weeks, but in terms of replacements, there really isn’t anyone screaming out ‘pick me’. A sideways trade to team mate Jake Waterman is an option, but Josh J. Kennedy isn’t far from a return and Waterman could make way for him.

Jack Higgins scored two goals on debut last week and showed glimpses of his talent against Hawthorn, but with Josh Caddy returning from suspension, Higgins’ job security isn’t great.

In terms of bubble boys this round, Mitch Crowden, Jack Henry and Esava Ratugolea could potentially be decent options for Ryan. Crowden ranks No. 1 at the Dockers for pressure points per 100 minutes since Round 2 and also has the bonus of dual-position eligibility. Henry, a forward in SuperCoach, hasn’t looked out of place in defence for the Cats, while Ratugolea has been lively in a forward/ruck role.

MATCH-UPS

Zach Merrett owners are advised to hold firm rather than trading now and losing more than $80,000 on their initial investment. But they might have to endure another tough week. Port Adelaide has conceded the fewest points in the comp to opposition midfielders in the first three rounds.

Essendon is conceding the most points to general forwards this season (average 100.9), which is good news for owners of Robbie Gray, Chad Wingard and even Tom Rockliff? Bombers also coughing up the most points in the comp to general defenders — good news for Riley Bonner owners.

Freomantle is No. 2 in that stat, conceding just 77 to opposition mids — thanks in a large part to the work of new tagger Bailey Banfield. Josh Kelly, look out.

Surprisingly, St Kilda is the fourth-best team at restricting opposition midfielders. Maybe Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Co won’t have the day out many are predicting.

And if you took a punt on Tom Lynch, keep the faith. West Coast concedes an average of 102.8 points a game to opposition key forwards — 10 points more than any other team.

Zach Merrett has struggled with close attention from taggers.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Adelaide Crows v Collingwood

Paul Seedsman enjoyed $47,300 price rise after finishing with 26 disposals, two goals and 110 points last round against the Crows. Steele Sidebottom finished with 34 disposals, two goals and 134 points against the Blues.

GWS Giants v Fremantle

Stephen Coniglio ranks fourth for points in the competition among midfielders, averaging 124. Nat Fyfe isn’t too far behind in eight position, averaging 118 points over the first three rounds.

Richmond v Brisbane Lions

Since returning to the side in Round 2 from injury, Bachar Houli has scored 57 and 73 points across the past two rounds. Dayne Zorko has bounced back after a stinker in Round 1, scoring 105 and 92 points.

Western Bulldogs v Sydney Swans

Marcus Bontempelli finished with 30 disposals, two goals and 140 points when he last faced Sydney at Etihad Stadium in Round 2 last year. Jake Lloyd had 34 disposals, 20 uncontested possessions and 114 points in that game.

North Melbourne v Carlton

Todd Goldstein was handsomely beaten by Max Gawn in the ruck last round, managing just 57 points. Matthew Kreuzer returned from injury against Collingwood, scoring 86 points.

West Coast Eagles v Gold Coast Suns

Nic Naitanui finished with eight disposals, 15 hit-outs-to-advantage and 112 points when he last played Gold Coast in Round 10, 2016. Jarrod Witts had 14 disposals, 11 hit-outs-to-advantage and 96 points against West Coast in Round 11 last season.

Essendon v Port Adelaide

Zach Merrett’s price has tumbled by $86,100 after averaging 14 disposals, nine contested possessions and 55 points. Tom Rockliff has suffered a similar fate, falling by $75,600 after averaging just 13 disposals and 49 points.

Hawthorn v Melbourne

Cyril Rioli is way off his best after averaging 11 disposals, one goal and 58 points, his worst start to any season since 2008. Michael Hibberd has failed to reach the lofty heights of 2017, averaging 79 points.

Geelong Cats v St Kilda

Patrick Dangerfield averaged 31 disposals, 20 contested possessions and 151 points from six games at GMHBA Stadium last season. Jack Steven finished with 19 disposals, two tackles and 45 points when he last played there in Round 13, 2014.

Champion Data's key SuperCoach numbers for Round 4.