AFL SuperCoach Round 17 Trade Guide: Top targets plus Fantasy Freako’s captain advice
Getting your C and VC right can be the key to league wins and jumping up the KFC SuperCoach rankings. Fantasy Freako reveals the key stats plus this week’s best rookies.
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KFC SuperCoaches have been dealt a massive blow ahead of round 17 on two separate fronts.
Firstly, Josh Dunkley (owned by 71 per cent of the competition) has been ruled out with a calf injury and, unfortunately, we don’t know the actual severity of the injury – is it just a cork or a minor strain? If it is a strain, then two weeks out would be a very optimistic outlook.
Secondly, Clayton Oliver (20 per cent ownership) has reinjured his hamstring. The Demons declared that he needed the get through the main training session to be any chance of returning, but he didn’t even finish the session.
Oliver last played in round 10 against Port Adelaide, and he has been sorely missed by the Demons in the engine room. KFC SuperCoaches who held him can count themselves to be very unlucky.
SCROLL DOWN FOR THIS WEEK’S FULL TRADE GUIDE
As we look ahead to round 17, picking the correct captain continues to be the difference between gaining a significant rank rise or just getting an average – or even below average – score for the week.
Last week I took the conservative approach of taking Marcus Bontempelli’s 114 points against Fremantle as the VC loophole score. If he had failed miserably then the captaincy would have gone to Nick Daicos, who I was very bullish on.
The term “hindsight” is one that gets used extensively in fantasy and if I had my time again, I would have taken the Daicos route. He piled on 149 points after scoring 143 at the same venue last season.
Lesson learned – back your instincts even if your VC gets s solid score.
If we look at how Daicos compares to other big hitters this season in terms of consistency in scoring, then he has outshone the lot – finishing in the top-three ranked players on the ground 10 times, two more than Tim English. Next best are Marcus Bontempelli and Josh Dunkley on seven apiece. Christian Petracca headlines a group of seven players on six, which also includes Tim Taranto.
If we rank players on their ability to hit 120-plus points then Daicos sits atop of that list as well, alongside English. In fact, four of Daicos’s scores are over 140.
Bontempelli has nine scores of 120-plus, with teammate Tom Liberatore next best with eight. Dunkley, Petracca and then a surprise packet, Adam Cerra, are next best with seven.
Cerra’s numbers have caught many by surprise – outshining both Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps at the Blues. Cerra has scored 120-plus in each of his past four games and is averaging a career-high 111 – up from 92 last year.
FREAKO’S ROOKIE WATCH
The rookies need to stand up this week and contribute as most KFC SuperCoaches will be holding Josh Dunkley and relying on bench cover. So the likes of Matthew Johnson, Marcus Windhager, Ryan Maric, Harry Sheezel and Angus Sheldrick all need to turn up and get something respectable on the board.
If you don’t have any adequate bench cover for Dunkley then swooping on a couple of Blues this week is an option. Both Lachie Fogarty and David Cuningham are DPPs and under $170k – scoring 99 and 97 points respectively last round. Can they back it up again this round against Fremantle? Potentially, yes.
Cuningham was used at centre bounces in round 16 – attending six for the match – also chipping in with two goals. Fogarty also kicked one goal and was involved in nine scoring chains.
Coaches who held Will Ashcroft last week were rewarded appropriately with 111 points – his second-highest score of the year. He should score well again this round at the Gabba against West Coast, but there is a temptation to trade him down to the underpriced Callum Mills who has bottomed out in price. Mills was back in the midfield last week in the absence of Chad Warner, attending a season-high 77 per cent of centre bounces.
Mills also scored over 100 points for the first time since round 8, finishing with 24 disposals, 11 contested possessions and six tackles. He hasn’t set the world on fire this season and has spent time in defence and up forward, but he does have a strong scoring pedigree in KFC SuperCoach.
Sheezel has a very reachable Break Even this week of 84 points – slightly above his round 16 score. The Kangaroos head to GMHBA Stadium this round to take on the Cats, an opponent they have lost 10 matches in a row against.
Best of luck for round 17!
Trade guide: Value buys headline top SuperCoach targets
– Tim Michell and The Phantom
The first round after the byes was a resounding success where your team hit its huge projected score, right?
Often, KFC SuperCoach is never as good as it seems, and many coaches learnt that over the first nine-game weekend of footy for a month.
But, if you still have the trades, there are a number of ways to correct a mistake or make that final upgrade ahead of round 17.
Callum Mills (Syd)
$404,100, Mid
The Sydney star’s CBAs, game-time and KFC SuperCoach points were up in round 16 but, maybe even more importantly, his price is down again. After finishing with 106 points, on the back of 24 disposals, 11 contested possessions and six tackles, Mills will be available for just over $400k this week. He might not average 117 – his 2022 season average – from this point onwards, given the way coach John Longmire has used him this year, but he’s still undeniable value at the price – and the perfect final upgrade if you are short on cash and trades. There was no Chad Warner, who was out injured, but the gun midfielder attended 76 per cent of centre bounces in Friday night’s draw with the Cats and Richmond, Sydney’s Round 17 opponent, often concede big points to opposition midfielders – the Lions on Thursday night the most recent example. A trade from Nat Fyfe, whose foot injury flared up again on the weekend, might only cost you $100k.
Luke Davies-Uniacke (NM)
$494,400, Mid
Although not as convincing as Mills, the North Melbourne midfielder returned on Saturday, tallying 12 contested possessions and eight clearances – both team highs – to finish with 94 KFC SuperCoach points in just 67 per cent game-time. Ideally, you’d love you wait and have one more look at the player who scored 143 and 155 to start the year, like you did with Mills last week, but Davies-Uniacke’s breakeven is 65 in Round 17, meaning if you want him at less than $500k as your final upgrade, you might have to pounce. Just keep in mind a trip to Geelong awaits.
Angus Sheldrick (Syd)
$316,500, Mid-Fwd
Coaches who jumped on after round 13 when he dropped to $158k must be laughing. Sheldrick’s past three scores are 91, 93 and 102 and he has surged above $300k after tallying 21 disposals, six tackles and eight score involvements in the draw against Geelong. The question now is – is it too late to jump on? Sheldrick has the benefit of being DPP, Warner is still likely to be out and a similarly-priced player in Fyfe is struggling again with injury. If you were planning to use Fyfe as your M9/F7 swing for the rest of the year then a sideways swap to Sheldrick looks very appealing, especially with the Tigers up next. Sheldrick isn’t Neale by any means, but the young bull has shown he has the type of game the KFC SuperCoach scorers love. He could even be a popular starting pick next year if he retains FWD status. Imagine how good he’ll be when he builds a tank. His points per minute in the past four rounds have been 0.9, 1.3, 0.9 and 1.3, posting 102 against the Cats from only 80 minutes game time.
Touk Miller (GC)
$592,600, Mid
The Suns co-captain and KFC SuperCoach stud is due to return from injury this round and shapes as the ultimate POD for the run home. Miller is $592k with a break even of 175, so it’s likely you could wait a week and jump on for close to $550-560k. Now that is serious value. He went 113, 106, 109, 122 and 127 in the opening five rounds before being injured with 40 points against North Melbourne. Miller’s ownership has dropped from 16.4 per cent in round 6 to 3 per cent of teams. A match-up against the high-flying Port Adelaide midfield this week looms, but Miller’s run home opens up after that and includes a clash with North Melbourne in KFC SuperCoach Grand Final week. Last year he averaged 120 and it would not surprise if Miller replicated that in the remaining eight rounds.
Noah Anderson (GC)
$559,200, Mid
If you’re after a more immediate buy at the Suns, Anderson is your man. He flew the flag for the Gold Coast midfield on Saturday afternoon, tallying 35 disposals, 11 contested possessions and 109 points – his fourth consecutive KFC SuperCoach ton. The young star has found his feet again after copping some heavy attention following his huge performances against Richmond and Melbourne in rounds 7 and 8. Will Miller’s return affect Anderson’s output? It’s a fair question, but he did score 134 points, on the back of a season-high 38 disposals, alongside Miller in Round 4, after similar performances last season.
Darcy Parish (Ess)
$572,200, Mid
What could have been for Parish on Saturday night. The Essendon star finished with 29 disposals, a team-high 14 contested possessions, seven marks, seven tackles and 131 KFC SuperCoach points. But he kicked 0.4 and only 17 of those disposals were effective. Parish was just clicking into gear before the injury at training following the round 8 loss to the Power, and he’s wasted little time finding that groove again. And the Bombers have five of the next six games at Marvel Stadium, including fixtures against North Melbourne and West Coast. And the best thing is he’s in just two per cent of teams.
Caleb Serong (Freo)
$562,500, Mid
For cheaper, though, you can have the Fremantle young gun, who scored 138 points against the Bulldogs in Round 16. The same Fremantle young gun who posted nine consecutive KFC SuperCoach tons between rounds 2 and 10 to push his price past $610k. But – and it’s a pretty big but – coach Justin Longmuir, again, commented on the “leg injury he’s been carrying” late last week. It didn’t effect him on Saturday, but with Serong not training as much as the Dockers would like, the selection comes with some risk. The upside, however, is obvious.
Liam Henry (Freo)
$329,700, Mid-Fwd
OK, this one has come out of nowhere. Although Henry’s talent has always been obvious, the 21-year-old has been unable to lock down a spot in Fremantle’ side. He reached 20 disposals for the first time in his career in Round 1, before tallying 18, 11 and 13 in the next three before being dropped. But after some strong WAFL form – four KFC SuperCoach tons on the trot – Henry was back in the senior side after the bye and went bang last week. The skilful Henry had 32 disposals and 103 points on a wing against the Bombers in Round 15, before backing it up with another 33 and 102 against the Bulldogs, sending his price skyrocketing past $300k. But he still won’t cost you much from Fyfe, if you’re after some money-making cover or a more reliable mid-fwd swing, and already have Sheldrick.
Sam Walsh (Carl)
$517,900, Mid
The Blues ball winner could soon become a must-have as a forward and shapes as one of the best players in line for DPP after round 17. He went close in round 12 but just missed out but has been used more often at half forward in the past month. Walsh’s last score above 110 came in round 9 which doesn’t inspire huge confidence but he likely would have reached that mark if he didn’t give away a soft 50m penalty against Hawthorn. Walsh had 25 disposals and laid seven tackles against the Hawks and after looking on track for a ton was scaled to 99 post-match. That means you’ll be able to buy him for less than $520k and then likely enjoy the DPP addition after round 17. Walsh’s best would make him one of the best forwards of the last two months but playing at half-forward has limited his ceiling to about 110 this year. There will no doubt be some coaches who consider a swap from Will Day after his shocker on Sunday but check your DEF cover before you pull the trigger on that move.
David Cuningham (Carl)
$163,800, Mid-Fwd
Back after several years in the wilderness, Cuningham has gone 42 and 97 to be the pick of this week’s downgrade options with a breakeven of -46. He spent time at centre bounces against the Hawks, going at 88 per cent from 16 disposals and booting two goals. If going all the way down to a $102k player such as Tyler Dewar gets you a better upgrade with your second trade, you can probably overlook Cuningham and get the best player on field. But if paying the extra $60k guarantees you FWD-MID cover you otherwise won’t have, you’ll need to consider it. Especially if Fyfe was your F7/M9 swing as it looks like he’ll be out again for an extended period with a flare up of his foot problems.
Sam Docherty (Carl)
$535,000, Def
Many coaches had ruled a line through Docherty after paying top dollar only to be dealt an underwhelming start to the season. But after his 108 on Sunday, Docherty is averaging 106.9 points since returning from injury in round 7. In that time he has only one game less than 94 points and six 106+. Despite that record he’s still available for less than $550k. Docherty also plays West Coast in round 19, a game Carlton’s stars will be expected to dominate. His ownership is still lower than 10 per cent too, so Docherty could be a standout POD for league finals and the run home if you’re chasing overall rankings
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