Robbo: Why football will be pandemonium in 2023
Footy is officially back. Who does Mark Robinson have in his top eight and bottom four? See his full ladder and read his take on what to expect in 2023.
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Historians sell Luke Beveridge’s 2016 Bulldogs short.
In winning the club’s second premiership, the Bulldogs swamped Hawthorn’s mark-think-kick style of football which won them three flags before the Bulldogs’ historic flag.
The Bulldogs handball game from stoppages was out of this world.
Pandemonium football had arrived.
Richmond was next. The Tigers’ style was high pressure, forward handball and hard running. It was absolute pandemonium and they won three flags on the shoulders of a bloke called Dusty Martin.
Melbourne won in 2021 on the back of stern defence and a 45-minute blitzkrieg in the Grand Final, which was the height of pandemonium.
Geelong, of 2022, was controlled pandemonium. From being somewhat boring – a probing team, as Ross Lyon would say – the Cats gave away sideways and backwards footy for continual forward movement.
That’s a broad examination of the reigning premiers, but they marched the ball forward like they were a team of army ants. Always at you. Eyes forward. Beaten bodies devoured in the dust.
Stats can drown us all, but they do not lie.
In 2021, Geelong was ranked 18th for kicks forward. In 2022, they were ranked 4th.
Preliminary finalists Collingwood wowed the competition. Belief in possibility delivered thrilling football. And guess what?
For kicks forward, they were ranked 14th in 2021. In 2022, they propelled themselves to No.1.
It was about getting it forward, quickly and decisively and not dicking around with the ball. They went from 2nd for marks in ’21 to 17th in ’22.
There were outliers. Sydney, the beaten grand finalists, were 16th for kicks forward across both 2021 and ’22, while Gold Coast, which should be a finals contender this year, had a major shift in their style. Kicks forward ranking went from 15th to 2nd.
Football is a copycat industry.
Teams will investigate how to beat Geelong, but they also learn from Geelong how to be better themselves. The same with how Collingwood played.
Speed of legs, hands and mind and constant forward ball movement to talls in the F50, which a bunch of crumbers underneath, would appear to be Plan A.
It means we’re in for a season of pandemonium football, from mostly every team capable, which means football will be the winner and the fans will be entertained.
Brisbane, under coach Chris Fagan, keeps presenting and have ultimately failed, but Fagan hasn’t surrendered. Astutely, they landed Jack Gunston and Josh Dunkley via free agency and, luckily, Will Ashcroft via father-son.
But names simply won’t deliver the Lions the flag. They need deep finals character for one and better ball movement for another. They will inject more speed in the back half and a go-forward philosophy – they were ranked 11th for kicks forward last year – and if it succeeds, a top two finish is not beyond them.
Indeed, AFL great Malcolm Blight has, as we speak, the Lions as the No.1 seed.
At a pinch, there are 10 teams who believe they can win the flag: Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Richmond, Sydney, Carlton, Port Adelaide and maybe Fremantle.
No disrespect to Gold Coast and Adelaide, but it would be a prodigious jump from outside of the eight in 2022 to premiers in 2022 with still developing teams.
The Suns are coming. They changed their game style last year from the previous year. They went from 15th to 2nd in kicks forward, and with a forward trio of the returning Ben King, Mabior Chol and Levi Casboult, the Suns have a huge weapon inside 50m, and they will demand the ball in earnest.
The Dogs might go with four key forwards: Aaron Naughton (195cm), Rory Lobb (207cm), Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (197cm) and probably Sam Darcy (204cm).
Teams need a point of difference. They have shored up the defence with intercept king Liam Jones – what as story he is already – and up the other end could have the “Four Pillars of Destiny’’.
If it works, kudos to the creative Luke Beveridge and kudos to his small forwards, who will need to be the hardest-working pressure small forwards in the game.
Football is more complicated than just moving the ball forward, mainly because the ball has to be won first and, after that, there’s an opposition trying to restrict your ball movement.
Whoever said first that defence wins premierships knew what he was talking about.
At the very least, a great defensive attitude and back seven is needed for a top-four finish. After that, you need the footy Gods on your side.
Clearly, there’s the physical and contest nature of footy, but there’s also the mental capacity.
Will the Swans be scarred? We ask that every year after a team is demolished in a grand final and it’s a question with substance. The Swans clearly are attempting to add class to their grunt midfield, and it could arrive with Errol Gulden. He’s a kicker, and won’t hang around halfback for the cheapies, and Chad Warner is 22 in May but he’s reaching for the stars.
Collingwood were the pandemonium kings in 2022. And they’ve added Tom Mitchell and Daniel McStay. They will also unleash Nick Daicos into the middle, while Jordan De Goey is primed to unleash himself on the competition.
That chasm between knowing you’re a good player and knowing you’re a great player has closed for De Goey. It’s the confidence and swagger of knowing that your matchwinning capabilities are way above most of the players on the ground.
Petracca, Oliver, Bontempelli, Dangerfield and Neale have it. Charlie Curnow should have it, and Aaron Naughton, while Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins have it in spades. De Goey is touching it.
What of the Tigers?
Just imagine if we see the best of Dusty? It will be pandemonium overload.
Others are more bullish on the Tigers, the reticence here being about whether the bodies of Grimes, Cotchin, Prestia and Riewoldt can stand up, and whether recruits Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper can marshall the midfield.
Port Adelaide is a big watch. Kenny Hinkley, who is out of contract at the end of the season, is already the focus, but he’s not batting an eyelid. He’s confident of a finals finish an dis coaching to win the flag. Still, the first six weeks will determine what sort of headline sits on him, and his team.
If the Cats maintain their hunger – and we all know the difference between being hungry and dog hungry – they will be difficult to topple.
At the same time, teams are lining up to be the toppler.
Ten teams can win the flag and another five teams – Gold Coast, Adelaide, Essendon, GWS and St Kilda – can play finals if everything falls into place.
That’s 15 clubs believing they can play finals, which is awesome for the game.
West Coast, Hawthorn and North Melbourne are at different stages of rebuild and let’s be honest, if one of those teams made September, the coach of the year award would be a fait accompli.
From now to then, 207 games will be played with newish rules inviting quick, long, running, ferocious, hold-your-breath and cheer-loud football.
A wonderful season beckons.
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