Pure Footy: Stats men David King, Daniel Hoyne lift lid on AFL trends after round 17

Melbourne can’t win the premiership unless it can turn around a damning mid-season stats profile. David King names the surprising players behind the Demons’ problems.

Melbourne’s mid-season slump is on track to kill the Demons’ hopes of back to back premierships, according to the stats experts.

Melbourne’s loss to Geelong was its fourth from its past six matches, following a similar pattern to last year when the Dees suffered three losses and a draw in a six-game stretch from rounds 13-19.

They proceeded to win their last seven games to steamroll their way to a drought-breaking premiership.

But looking into the numbers presents a very different picture in 2022, according to Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne.

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In 2021 even when they weren’t winning the Dees maintained a strong statistical profile, ranking top-four in the AFL on the “core four” pillars Champion Data has assessed as crucial to premiership success.

In the past six weeks Melbourne ranks 10th in the competition on the core four.

“It’s completely different,” he said on Pure Footy, the online analysis show exclusive to heraldsun.com.au.

“Last year we were talking about Melbourne breaking records for how hard they were to score against once you go inside-50, in that period they were still the second-hardest team to score against. In the last six weeks, they’re 10th.

Christian Petracca’s ball use is hurting the Demons. Picture: Michael Klein

“On Thursday night Geelong scored 31 times – Melbourne didn’t give up 31 scores at all last year. This is a different product.

“They’re not winning the flag with the core four profile they’ve shown over the past six weeks.”

North Melbourne champion David King said the Dees could turn their form around, but key players needed to dramatically improve their execution.

“Their turnovers between the arcs, you can’t defend them,” he said.

“The culprits are Brayshaw, Oliver, Viney and Petracca – the guns.

“I’m giving them a chance to correct. I’m going to track them heavily for the next 2-3 weeks and just see whether those guys can get their execution back.

“They don’t have to be surgeons with the footy but they can’t be slaughtermen.”

Also on this week’s episode, Hoyne and King analyse North Melbourne’s list, Gold Coast’s improvement, Richmond’s biggest weakness and the return of taggers.