Pure Footy: Stats men David King, Daniel Hoyne lift lid on AFL trends after round 11

Essendon’s defensive numbers in 2022 are ‘horrible’ – but they weren’t great last year either. There is one huge difference in 2023, leading to a huge call from a stats guru. Here’s why.

Essendon’s fall from 2021 finalist to picking up the pieces halfway through the 2022 season has been dramatic.

And while it’s never as simple as pinning the disaster on one player, there is a strong case the Bombers battles have coincided with being without the most valuable player to any team in the competition, according to Champion Data stats guru Daniel Hoyne.

Jake Stringer has been restricted to just four matches this year by hamstring injuries, and wasn’t at his best in those appearances.

WATCH A NEW EPISODE OF PURE FOOTY ABOVE

Speaking on a new episode of Pure Footy – the weekly footy analysis show exclusive to heraldsun.com.au – Hoyne said Stringer was crucial to Essendon’s winning edge last season.

He said the Bombers’ defensive numbers this year were “horrible” – but they weren’t far off the numbers Essendon produced in those stats categories last year.

“Last year they were 16th without the footy, so that area of the game hasn’t changed.

“But what they had on the competition was their ability to win the ball and get it on the scoreboard. Last year they were the second-best team with the footy.

“This year they’ve lost that part of their game.”

Jake Stringer is due back from injury after the Bombers’ bye. Picture: Michael Klein

Essendon’s scores per inside-50 ranking has dropped from fourth in the AFL to 15th and its chain to score ranking is down from No.2 in the competition ton No.14. Hoyne said the Bombers desperately needed a spark.

“Their clearance game last year was fantastic. They are the 13th ranked team this year in terms of points differential from clearance, last year they were No.2 – and they were No.1 last year in terms of converting a clearance onto the scoreboard, this year they’re 12th.

“To me Jake Stringer is perhaps the most important player to any team in the competition.

“He was the third-highest rated player across the competition last year. He’s their point of difference, and he hasn’t been there.”

North Melbourne champion David King said Essendon’s struggles without its best playmaker were a red flag for Collingwood’s list management team.

“We talk a lot about those impact players who can go in at centre bounce then go forward and impact the scoreboard. This is an alarm bell to signing or not signing Jordan De Goey.”

Also on a packed show this week, King and Hoyne examine what’s gone wrong at North Melbourne and West Coast, the best and worst kicks inside 50 in the AFL and Geelong’s huge recruiting bargain.