Pure Footy: Stats men David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big trends after round 3

The stats show Bailey Smith isn’t a centre bounce midfielder, but his numbers aren’t great on the outside, either. What has happened to the Dogs’ rising star? Watch Pure Footy.

When Bailey Smith kicked seven goals in two weeks to propel the Western Bulldogs into the 2021 grand final, the AFL had a new star on it hands.

Two seasons later, who is Bailey Smith?

That’s the question Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne posed on this week’s episode of Pure Footy, and he says the answer isn’t clear.

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“Is he a centre bounce player – the numbers suggest probably not. Is he a ball-winning midfielder? Probably not,” Hoyne said.

“And is he ball user? So far this year he hasn’t been able to really generate anything of note.

“He’s going for the third-hardest kicks of any player in the competition this year. Only Christian Petracca and Stephen Coniglio are going for harder kicks than Bailey Smith has attempted this year, and he’s only been involved in seven scores in three games.

“That’s not the Bailey Smith we saw in 2021 when he kicked four goals on prelim final night.”

Bailey Smith’s role is unclear at the Western Bulldogs. Picture: Michael Klein

Hoyne revealed numbers that show Tom Liberatore, Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae and Adam Treloar all have a major positive impact when they attend centre bounces in terms of winning clearances and impacting the scoreboard.

But the same can’t be said for Smith.

“All four Bulldogs midfielders other than Bailey Smith have a significant positive differential in terms of clearance and scores when they go into a centre bounce. Bailey Smith is the only one that’s in the negative,” he said.

When Tom Liberatore has attended centre bounces over the past five seasons, he has improved the Bulldogs’ clearance differential by 100. For Marcus Bontempelli the figure is +68, Jack Macrae is at +52 and Adam Treloar at +50.

“The Bulldogs are minus 31 when Bailey Smith is at a centre bounce and they’ve been outscored 22 times more when Bailey Smith is actually in the centre bounce as well,” Hoyne said.

When it comes to winning the ball on the outside and using it to damage the opposition, Smith’s numbers aren’t flattering, either. He ranks 145th in the AFL for ball winning this year and 121st for ball use.

On another big episode, Hoyne and Fox Footy’s David King reveal how Ross Lyon has changed St Kilda, the familiar problem facing Essendon, Geelong’s depth issue and why Ed Richards should be in All-Australian contention.

Plus Jaimee Rogers from TAB joins the panel to discuss the latest odds for the premiership, top eight and the big games in round 4.