Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big trends ahead of round 23

Adelaide and Sydney’s premiership profiles are almost identical, but only one can play finals. Plus a possible ‘banana peel’ game for the Blues under the microscope.

If you thought footy tipping has been hard this year, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

In round 23 the two most evenly matched teams of the season meet in a match that could decide the make-up of the top eight.

Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne and North Melbourne champion David King tried to split Adelaide and Sydney in the latest episode of Pure Footy – and it wasn’t easy.

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Hoyne said the two finals contenders lined up side by side on Champion Data’s core four premiership pillars.

“Offensively Adelaide is top six, defensively the Swans are top four, so that’s pretty much like for like,” he said.

“Go the other way, Adelaide is top seven defensively Sydney is top seven offensively.

“Then we go to the clearance game – it’s 12th v 13th – that’s not an asset for either of them, so that might get cancelled out.

“Then in the contest situation, it’s 10th v 11th.

“Off the core four profile that we track, it does not get any closer than what this game is on Saturday night.”

King said the difference could be the return of Adelaide’s star recruit.

“It’s going to come down to one man, in my opinion, the biggest inclusion for the Adelaide Crows, their wildcard in Isak Rankine,” King said.

Izak Rankine is a big inclusion for the Crows this week. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

Rankine has kicked 35 goals this year and ranks third in the competition for score involvements in the forward-50, behind only key targets Tom Hawkins and Charlie Curnow.

King labelled Rankine the AFL’s “best forward-50 firestarter”.

“As we’re talking coming into the finals, it’s probably the biggest magnet to come back in because he creates scores you normally don’t get.”

When it comes to tipping, Hoyne also flagged Carlton’s trip to Gold Coast as a classic “banana peel type game”.

“They’ve been up for a long time, they had a huge game last week against Melbourne and it’s not an easy trip going up to Gold Coast.

“It’s just one of those ones where you get the win, get on the plane and get back home.

“This is massive for Carlton, by the way. That fifth position could be the perfect position for Carlton to launch into. They could have a Melbourne final into a Melbourne final against either a Collingwood or a Melbourne in semi-final week rather than travelling interstate.

“So stay in fifth, don’t drop it.”