Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big trends ahead of round 14

Essendon is winning, but to be a serious finals contender the Bombers have to change the way they play. Stats gurus Daniel Hoyne and David King reveal how on Pure Footy.

Could Essendon be on track for more September heartache?

The Bombers’ game style has alarm bells ringing for stats experts, but the good news is they could be setting themselves up for long-term success – if they can evolve on the run.

And there is a clear template for Brad Scott to follow.

Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne says Essendon’s profile this year looks a lot like Richmond’s from 2013-2016, when the Tigers made the finals in three successive seasons only to be bundled out in the first week each time.

That Richmond team ranked second in the competition for uncontested marks – Essendon is first this year – but 15th for midfield intercepts (the Bombers are 18th), 15th for conceding inside-50s (17th) and 15th for defending opposition ball movement (18th).

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“I think the way they (the Bombers) are playing is definitely not a sustainable brand in terms of being able to get to preliminary final weekend, but I don’t think they’re in a position to worry about getting to a preliminary final in 2023,” Hoyne said on a new episode of Pure Footy.

“Given where they’ve been at the last four, five or six years, it’s all about stability and resetting. They’ve got a lot of young, exciting talent to be able to work with moving forward, so I think the fact they are eight and six is a huge tick for Brad Scott.

“The concern for me is at the end of this year, you’ve reset and you’ve had a reasonably successful year, but launching forward to get to preliminary final weekend, this profile needs to change.”

Jake Stringer and the Bombers are poised for a return to finals action. Picture: Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images

The positive spin on the comparison is the Tigers were able to change their game style in 2017 – and went on to win three of the next four premierships.

“It’s a poor defensive profile, it’s built off the back of uncontested footy and uncontested marks,” Hoyne said.

“And we saw Richmond at the end of 2016 turfed that profile in the bin and came up with a more chaotic, aggressive, high-turnover brand of footy, and the success was there for everyone to see.”

Also on this week’s episode, King and Hoyne reveal Rory Lobb’s worrying rankings, which teams will benefit the most from players returning from injury and two champions who went back to the future in round 13.