Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne analyse stats, trends after first week of finals

Melbourne has lost the ruthless edge that buried opponents last season and over the first 10 rounds, with alarming stats showing a huge issue in final quarters that needs to be fixed – fast.

Last year Melbourne won the premiership on the back of a devastating grand final burst in the third and fourth quarters – and it was a trend we saw all season.

This year the opposite trend has their flag defence in huge danger heading into a knockout semi-final against the Brisbane Lions.

Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne said the Demons repeatedly established a two or three-goal margin by three-quarter time in 2021 then blew teams out of the water in the last quarter. But after winning their first 10 matches this season, it’s a very different story.

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“Last year they were plus 201 points in fourth quarters,” he said on Pure Footy.

“This year they are minus 41 points in fourth quarters – that’s 14th in the competition.

“Since round 11 they are minus 97 points in fourth quarters. Only North Melbourne and West Coast have a worse differential.

“Sitting there watching it on the weekend it didn’t look like they could go with Sydney as the game went on. They couldn’t go with Collingwood. They couldn’t go with Geelong, they couldn’t go with the Bulldogs a little while ago.

The Demons need to fix their fourth-quarter fadeouts. Picture: Michael Klein

“I haven’t got any numbers around this it’s just a theory but the loss of (high performance manager) Darren Burgess, I just wonder if they have the same capacity to be able to explode.

“Even on the weekend against the Swans they get to a three-goal lead in the second quarter, but from there they lose the game by 40 points.

“It’s been a theme and a trend across the year for Melbourne, so if you’re Brisbane on the weekend you’ve got to hang in there for as long as possible to then hopefully expose what’s happened from a Melbourne perspective since round 11.”

Hoyne and David King said it wasn’t the only problem for the Demons, who need to work out how to make the most of a Max Gawn-Luke Jackson combination that the stats say is not working.