Premium SuperCoach Formguide: Scott Pendlebury’s amazing Perth form plus best trade, captain picks for AFL Round 13
SUBSCRIBER SPECIAL: WHY James Hird could be our SuperCoach season saviour. Plus amazing Cripps v Judd stats and best trades.
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WELCOME to the premium SuperCoach formguide for Round 13.
Every week Champion Data, which powers the stats behind Australia’s biggest and best fantasy game, will reveal numbers that will guide our SuperCoach moves — who to trade, who to keep, who to bench and who to name as captain.
You won’t see these stats anywhere else.
TOP TIPS: CRIPPS ANSWER SUPERCOACH RIDDLE
FRIDAY UPDATE
Essendon could be our SuperCoach season saviour with several quality rookies emerging in recent weeks.
Here are four options that should see you through the byes and beyond.
Shaun Edwards (Def) $123,900
SuperCoaches are jumping off Kamdyn McIntosh in droves after his dismal four disposals and 39 point game last round against West Coast. He has no chance of reaching his 91 point break-even this week against the Swans which is why he is the second-most traded out player in the competition.
Shaun Edwards is the player everyone is jumping on, a move that will make you $185,200. These funds will be more than enough to make a substantial upgrade elsewhere.
Edwards is clearly the best option this week despite playing in just the one game. He was the Bombers’ only multiple goalscorer when they last played in Round 11, scoring two goals and being involved in four scoring chains – the equal second-most of any Bomber.
SCROLL DOWN TO SEE THIS WEEK’S TOP CAPTAIN PICKS
Elliott Kavanagh (Mid) $145,100
Kavanagh is on the bubble this week and presents himself as a handy trade down option. He like many team mates struggled last time out against the Eagles in Round 11, recording 14 disposals and a kicking efficiency of 57%. More encouraging was his defensive effort however, applying six tackles, of which four were in the midfield zone.
A favourite of James Hird, with Travis Colyer sidelined with a foot injury his job security has been handed a massive boost. Like Colyer, his zippiness through the midfield will be handy in the coming weeks.
With Cameron Ellis-Yolmen peaking in price, a trade down to Kavanagh can make SuperCoaches $223,200. This is definitely an option for SuperCoaches that still have the Crows midfielder.
Shaun McKernan (Fwd/Ruck) $255,300
If you currently own Tom Bellchambers, then a straight swap for McKernan is an option if you don’t have enough funds for a major upgrade. He comes into the side this week to replace Bellchambers who could potentially miss the remainder of the H&A season with a foot injury.
McKernan has been dominating at VFL level this season, averaging 21 disposals, two contested marks, two goals and 125 points per game. He has shared his time between attack and the ruck, also averaging 17 hitouts (27% to advantage) and four clearances per game.
He had a blinder in his most recent game, finishing with 22 disposals, 11 marks, six tackles, six inside 50s, five goals straight and 140 points.
Nick O’Brien (Mid) $123,900
O’Brien, a big-bodied midfielder, has been dominating at VFL level in recent weeks, recording 37 disposals in each of his past two games, scoring 140 and 107 points respectively. Across the season he has averaged 30 disposals, 12 contested possessions, three inside 50s and three tackles per game. His work around the stoppages has been exceptional as well, averaging 6.3 clearances per outing.
One part of his game that has let him down has been kicking, recording a poor kicking efficiency of 50.9%. This has had a detrimental effect to his overall scoring.
O’Brien has been named on the interchange bench for the Hawks clash.
DEFENDERS
Key stat: Intercept possessions
The ability to win the ball back off the opposition is vital in modern footy — and is rewarded accordingly in SuperCoach.
A contested intercept mark is worth eight points and a player earns four points for an uncontested intercept mark. A contested groundball intercept — winning the ball back in general play — is worth 4.5 points, and an uncontested groundball intercept is three points.
Cale Hooker is the No.1 interceptor in the competition this season, averaging 9.1 intercept possessions per game — well above his 2014 return of 6.9. Only 11 per cent of these intercepts have resulted in a score for the Bombers, which is the second-lowest percentage of the top 20 in the competition.
This is largely due to Essendon’s poor ball movement coming out of defence, with only 18 per cent of its defensive-50 chains resulting in a forward-50 entry — ranked 14th. From a SuperCoach point of view, Hooker is enjoying a career-best season, averaging 93 points per game — ranked fifth at the club and a rise of 15 points from last season.
Jeremy McGovern’s stocks continue to rise, ranking second in the competition for intercept possessions behind Hooker, averaging 8.9 per game. His ability to read the play and win the ball from the opposition are key traits, averaging four intercept marks per match — clearly ranked No.1 in the competition.
Easton Wood continues to push for inaugural All-Australian honours, ranking third for intercept possessions per game with 8.5. The Bulldogs have generated a score from 22.4 per cent of these possessions — the second-highest percentage of any player. He is enjoying a breakout season, averaging 16.9 disposals per game, while increasing his SuperCoach output by 21 points.
INTERCEPT POSSESSIONS
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MIDFIELDERS
Key stat: Contested possessions
Midfielders who thrive in contested situations are extremely valuable in SuperCoach.
It should be no surprise to anyone that Nat Fyfe leads the competition for contested possessions in 2015, averaging a career-high 19.4 per game — up by 3.3 from last season. He has won 61.2 per cent of his possessions in a contest, also a career-high return.
Fyfe was subbed out in his last game against the Magpies in Round 1 last season after only 73 minutes game time, scoring 122 SuperCoach points in his time on the ground.
Matt Priddis ranks second behind Fyfe for contested possessions with an average of 15.2 — a career-high return. He heads into this week’s bye with an average of 114 points per outing — an increase of six points per game from the opening 12 rounds last season.
Patrick Cripps continues to make great inroads at the Blues, recording double-figure contested possession tallies in all but one game this season, averaging 14.1 per game — ranked ninth in the competition.
He recorded Chris Judd-like numbers against Port Adelaide, finishing with 31 disposals, 15 contested possessions, nine clearances and 11 tackles. His contested possession rate of 61.1 per cent is slightly up on Judd’s rate of 59.4 per cent is his second season in the AFL.
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS
RUCKS
Key stat: Winning percentage
As has been the case for most of 2015, Aaron Sandilands’ winning percentage in ruck contests (65.3 per cent) is clearly the highest of any ruckman in the competition. Nic Naitanui is next highest with 56.4 per cent while Todd Goldstein ranks third with 50.8 per cent.
Goldstein rewarded SuperCoaches who handed him the all-important captain’s armband with 154 points last week against the Giants, the third time this season he has reached that mark. He was always going to dominate his younger opponents in the absence of Shane Mumford, recording a winning percentage of 77 per cent — the second-highest of any player in any game this year. Sandilands’ winning percentage of 78 per cent against the Bulldogs in Round 7 is the highest overall.
Max Gawn has taken SuperCoach by storm since coming into the Melbourne side in Round 10, averaging 121 points per game — ranked sixth among all rucks. His price skyrocketed by $70,400 last round after scoring 146 points against the Cats, the third-biggest haul of any ruckman for the round.
He is averaging 13.3 hitouts to advantage per game this season which ranks him No.1 in the AFL, slightly ahead of Goldstein and Sandilands (13.2 apiece).
WINNING RUCK CONTESTS
Player / club / average ruck contests / winning %
FORWARDS
Key stat: Goals from general play
The ability to convert scoring opportunities from general play is crucial for a forward. So far in 2015, no player has recorded more scoring shots from general play than Jeff Garlett (29), with his 17 goals via that source also ranking No.1, marginally ahead of Eddie Betts (16) and Jake Stringer (15).
Garlett was a mid-price option to start with and began the year with 121 points, which remains a season-high return. He has scored at least 90 points in only three games since and isn’t a reliable option for the 11,000+ SuperCoaches that still have him in their side.
From a conversion perspective, Eddie Betts and Lindsay Thomas cannot be separated, recording a scoring accuracy of 80 per cent from general play — the equal-best return of the top 20 goalscorers from that source. Jake Stringer is next best with a scoring accuracy of 78.9 per cent.
At the opposing end of that scale is Steven Motlop, recording a scoring accuracy of 45 per cent from general play — 7.2 per cent worse than Chad Wingard who’s next worst. Jarryd Roughead has also struggled, converting 52.9 per cent of his general play opportunities.
GOALS FROM GENERAL PLAY
Player / club / goals from gen play / Accuracy from gen play
DEFENSIVE PLAYERS
Heath Shaw kept a clean sheet last week against the Kangaroos and restricted his main opponent Lindsay Thomas to just nine disposals from the 85 minutes they were matched up. He has recorded the second-best defensive rating this season behind Jared Rivers.
Shaw is in career-best form, averaging 106 points per game which is the most of any defender in the competition. Since Round 9 he has dipped below 90 points just once, scoring 100-plus in five matches.
Luke McPharlin will once again be handed the role on Travis Cloke this week, a player he has kept goalless in the past two meetings between the sides — not great news for owners of the key forward. McPharlin is vital to Fremantle’s success, keeping clean sheets in three of his past four games which include keeping Drew Petrie, Taylor Walker and Charlie Dixon all goalless.
At the opposite end will be Magpie Nathan Brown, who is likely to be handed the job on Dockers skipper Matthew Pavlich. He kept Jeremy Cameron to one goal from 84 minutes on him in his last match in Round 11, conceding only four disposals for the game. From a SuperCoach perspective, Brown is still owned by over 46,000 SuperCoaches and has a break-even score of just 12 points.
WHO TO TARGET
Gary Ablett headlines the big inclusions this week as he makes his long-awaited return from a shoulder injury. From all reports, his shoulder has stood up in contested and tackling drills at training and he’s ready to resume.
He isn’t a SuperCoach option this round, especially with a massive break-even score of 231 points, but he is one player to track in the coming rounds as he regains full match fitness.
The No.1 trade-in target this week has to be Scott Pendlebury for those that are still without the Magpies skipper. His price has hit a season-low and with a break-even score of 117 points, he may not be at this price for much longer.
One of the most consistent players in the competition, Pendlebury has averaged 120 points against his three upcoming opponents — the fourth-best return of any player in the AFL. His record at Domain Stadium is exceptional, scoring 154, 155, 96 and 127 points respectively from his past four games there.
If you don’t have the funds for Pendlebury, then the next best option is Rory Sloane. He recorded his first ton last round against the Hawks since Round 3, scoring 117 points and dipping in price marginally by $1000. He’s expected to smash his break-even score of 77 points this round against the Lions after scoring 172 points in his last trip to the Gabba in Round 20 last season.
CAPTAINS CORNER
Nathan Fyfe
The No.1 captain choice of 2015 is back — and he plays on Thursday night which means you have time for a Plan B if something incredible happens and he scores poorly (put the VC on Fyfe and the C on a player with the bye to leave your options open). His form against Collingwood doesn’t give us much to go on, scoring 122 last year in his only match against the Pies since 2011.
Scott Pendlebury
See above for Pendles’ fantastic record in Perth. He also loves playing the Dockers, averaging 125 in his past three against Fremantle. Ryan Crowley is in the stands. It would be a brave call but if you need to pull something out of the hat, it could pay off big time.
Dustin Martin
Martin is in red-hot form, averaging 133 in his past three games, and he won’t have any fears facing the Swans. Dusty famously kicked the winning goal in Round 23 last year but he also scored 148 against Sydney in Round 14, and 126 in the game before that.
Patrick Dangerfield
Seems an obvious pick with three scores over 130 in the past month, but on his last visit to the Gabba in Round 20 last year he managed just 87 points. He past three average v the Lions (109) isn’t too shabby, but there might be more potential in teammate Rory Sloane. One of the most traded in players in the past two weeks, Sloane dominated that Round 20 game with 28 disposals, two goals, 11 tackles and 172 SuperCoach points.
Hall’s long-distance Gallen plan
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Hall gets kick from little masters
Andrew Moloney is the hot favourite to become Australia’s only current world boxing champion when he battles Brooklyn’s Elton Dharry on the same night that his mate Barry Hall fights Paul Gallen.