Where does your AFL club sit: Richmond rolls dice on recruits in bid to re-establish itself as a force

The Tigers have a few candidates to choose from, but an off-field star who shot the lights out in the trade and draft periods may take the off-season chocolates at Richmond.

Is Richmond’s decision to top up folly?

Or the result of careful list management that will not only avoid them falling off a list cliff but contending for the foreseeable future?

Richmond didn’t come close to contending for a flag last year — losing a close elimination final to Brisbane — and finished 12th the year before.

But had they taken their chances against Brisbane they would have believed they were a match for Geelong if they had progressed through to the last game of September.

So can the new recruits in Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto combine with the 2022 improvers like Shai Bolton, Maurice Rioli and Tyler Sonsie to deliver enough improvement to give Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin another crack at the title?

RICHMOND

Coach: Damien Hardwick

Captain: Dylan Grimes, Toby Nankervis

Don’t dare rule Damien Hardwick and Richmond out in 2023.

What happened in 2022?

What a strange old season for the Tigers.

They dropped round 1 against Carlton, were 2-4, won seven of the next nine games, lost to Gold Coast (two points) and North Melbourne (four points) before a draw against Fremantle then peeled off four commanding wins to make the finals.

Tom Lynch’s set shot goal was controversially overruled by the ARC and yet there is no getting around the fact he should have kicked a goal which would have put Richmond up by nine points with only three minutes of game time remaining.

Instead the entire backline seemed to fly for the long ball which Joe Daniher booted through to turf Richmond from the finals.

It was symptomatic of a team that leaked too many scores, had too many defensive breakdowns, gave up too many matchwinning plays in key moments.

Richmond were good for large patches of the year — and that final — but a long way from the greatness they needed to win the flag.

Where do they finish in 2023?

When you top up with Taranto and Hopper you have to believe you can win the flag.

And yet there is no doubt the brilliant recruiting job done by Matt Clarke and co means this is not 2023 or bust.

All five picks from the 2021 national draft look major talents, Maurice Rioli is a bargain find from the 2020 national draft and Daniel Rioli (25 years old), Liam Baker (24), Noah Balta (23) and Shai Bolton (23) are already or can become A graders.

The immediate queries are whether Tom Lynch’s hamstrings can hold up, whether Jack Riewoldt can defy father time for another 12 months, whether Balta and Josh Gibcus are still too raw as key backs if the Tigers cop a Dylan Grimes-style injury at an inopportune time.

There is elite talent across the board and if the Tigers get 40 home-and-away games combined from Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton they should win 14-plus home-and-away games.

But they are not the bulletproof side Geelong proved to be last year so a team that conceded four 100-point scores last year and six in the 90s has plenty of work to do over the summer to re-establish itself as a force.

If they can marry game-plan tweaks with those methodical improvements from players on the edge of stardom they will be there deep into September.

Noah Cumberland’s continued emergence could be massive for the club’s long-term hopes.

Biggest improver in 2023

The good news is that there are plenty of candidates.

Maurice Rioli played 15 games for 14 goals, while Tyler Sonsie took part in the last seven games and looked totally at home.

Josh Gibcus looks a 200-game player after 18 games in his debut year, while Sam Banks has huge wraps as a second-year wingman-half back with a huge slice of class.

But for a Richmond side that might be enjoying Jack Riewoldt’s last season perhaps Noah Cumberland’s continued emergence is just as important for the club’s long-term hopes.

He rebounded from an ACL tear in May 2020 to kick 19 goals in his eight games (he was also the unused sub in round 11) and while he is only 183cm the Tigers need to find their next key and mid-sized forwards for the next 5-8 years.

He looks capable of becoming one of those players in a year where he turns 22 on the day before the season opener.

Absolute no-brainer who brings the X-factor at Tigerland. And there is no reason why Shai Bolton cannot improve further.

X-factor

Is Shai Bolton now a more watchable player than Dustin Martin?

It’s an open question for a player capable of sitting on an opponent’s head one minute then kicking the goal of the year the next instant?

Bolton is certainly on the podium as footy’s most dynamic player but after 43.41 next year and a host of total misses he must find a way to maximise his shots at goal.

At 23 he is the perfect age to find that maturity and take the next step because it could turn him into the best player in the game.

For Bolton that will mean him taking that extra second to steady and goal instead of blasting away aware the next chance is not far away.

Damien Hardwick can retain him as a shock weapon in the centre square and while the introduction of Taranto and Hopper will mean there are many mouths to feed his potency at the bounce means the Tigers will keep finding ways to get him in there.

For the 2022 All Australian there would be no ceiling on his game.

Coach status

Hardwick said openly early in the season that he would depart when the club’s premiership window shut but with the refurb and refresh he seems genuinely thrilled to be on board long term.

He made clear he believed the most exciting part of Richmond’s list was its future during finals and so who would discount him eventually re-signing past 2024?

Richmond’s tactical advantage over the rest of the competition was once profound as their shock-and-awe style flummoxed teams with cautious and methodical ball movement.

Now everyone plays like the Tigers, so what does Hardwick have in his kit bag?

The club’s careful exit strategy of its established stars means he doesn’t have to dodge the dramas Chris Scott faced moving on the premiership legends.

Richmond believes he will return from an overseas study trip flush with ideas to reinvigorate a Tigers side without a finals win since the 2020 premiership.

Who is in last year of contract?

Bigoa Nyuon, Dylan Grimes, Hugo Ralphsmith, Jack Graham, Jack Riewoldt, Jacob Bauer, Jason Castagna, Kamdyn McIntosh, Nathan Broad, Noah Balta, Rhyan Mansell, Robbie Tarrant, Thomson Dow, Toby Nankervis, Trent Cotchin.

The inclusion of Tim Taranto can quickly turn around Richmond’s fortunes. Picture: Michael Klein

Ins for 2023

Tim Taranto, Jacob Hopper, Kaleb Smith (pick 49), Steely Green (pick 55), Seth Cambell (rookie), Tylar Young (rookie).

Outs from 2022

Josh Caddy (retired), Kane Lambert (retired), Matthew Parker (delisted), Shane Edwards (retired), Sydney Stack (delisted), Jake Aarts (delisted), Riley Collier-Dawkins (delisted), Will Martyn (delisted).

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