Ralphy’s seven burning questions heading into the 2023 AFL season
Hawthorn has taken a huge gamble by backing in a full rebuild but is one of the stars they let go the recruit of the year?
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The spotlight will be on several senior coaches heading into season 2023, as Jon Ralph sinks his teeth into the burning questions prior to the opening round of the year.
How does Lyon win over St Kilda faithful?
There are a slab of Saints fans who believe the club was ripe for change and still some holdovers who are worried about Lyon’s sometimes-dour style of play at Fremantle.
Max King’s shoulder reconstruction is wretched timing but let’s face it – St Kilda isn’t winning the flag anyway in 2023.
So his potential unavailability for up to six weeks not only gives St Kilda a perfect chance to diversify its forward line, it gives us a potential window into Lyon’s coaching brilliance.
Last year’s goal totals were King (52), Tim Membrey (34), Jack Higgins (30), Dan Butler (19), Jade Gresham (16) and Mason Wood (13).
King’s absence highlights the fact the club doesn’t really have a plan B.
So can Lyon revitalise Cooper Sharman, so impressive in late-season 2021 games but modest across 10 games this year across the ground?
Is Josh Battle worth trying as a second and third forward in King’s absence despite his 10th placing in the best-and-fairest as a defender.
SANFL summer rookie Jack Hayes will be back from an ACL tear by round 1.
Zaine Cordy and Tom Campbell are stopgap solutions but Lyon must prioritise long-term growth in that position over short-term wins.
If he can find another forward, kickstart Butler after a quiet 2022, get the very best out of Higgins all before King returns the Saints fans will quickly fall back in love with Lyon.
How long will Hinkley survive if things turn sour?
Clubs hate speculation about their senior coaches and yet if they keep sacking them we will keep talking about it.
Hinkley enters his 11th season at Port Adelaide having been resoundingly backed from president to chief executive to players down about fulfilling his contract next year.
They loved the way he didn’t waver when the Power stunk it up in a 0-5 start to 2022 and at least fought out the season.
In those 10 seasons there have been just four finals campaigns yet also 12, 11 and 11-win seasons when the Power just fell short as well as a pair of 10-victory seasons.
So if you think his performances are underrated or not up to scratch you have evidence either way.
The inclusion of Junior Rioli and Jason Horne-Francis is a sign of a quality trade period that will still put pressure on Hinkley to perform in 2023.
If he wins at least one final there is a case for him to get a new deal.
But the comparisons with Leon Cameron are hard to ignore – if the young Power side coughs and splutters early don’t be surprised if Hinkley and the club’s hierarchy shake hands and move on.
Surely the Power will be able to bank enough early-season wins for Hinkley to keep the wolves at bay until a decision late in the year.
Club legend Josh Carr is the heir apparent and it would shock if he was not the next Port Adelaide coach, which is more likely to happen for the 2024 season than not.
Will Clarkson be coaching North in round 1?
The only certainty from the independent investigation into Hawthorn First Nations racism allegations is that there will be no neat resolution.
If you study the 260-page AFL concussion report compiled by King’s Counsel Bernard Quinn – who will also run the Hawthorn investigation – you realise very few people will come out of this report smelling of roses.
If alleged victim Amy* remains strong in not appearing to give testimony for the inquiry how is it possible for the strongest claims about termination will be upheld?
Potentially if it is corroborated by others, but Clarkson will go to the ends of the earth – and every available law court – to defend his position and honour.
The Quinn concussion inquiry was forensic in its detail and embarrassing to both the AFL and concussion expert Paul McCrory.
Stripped of context and nuance and explanation, words or expressions used in intimate conversations can often look stark on paper.
So get set for damaging revelations, parties dissatisfied on both sides and a report that when lodged will likely only be the beginning of this saga.
So the Clarkson question is impossible to answer except to say it is hard to see any situation in which the AFL has levied a penalty on the super coach that he has accepted or not appealed by March next year.
Is there method in Mitchell’s madness?
On paper, tipping 1400 games of experience off the Hawthorn list would seem disastrous for a team that finished with a highly encouraging eight wins in 2022.
But what has Mitchell really lost from that lot on their 2022 output given his stated ambition is to win flags, not pump up his win-loss tally?
Read former football director Richie Vandenberg’s comments in the Herald Sun one more time.
“Our midfield group last year was rated statistically 18th in the league,” he said.
“It is not like we are moving on a midfield which is the most successful midfield in the league.”
So the Hawks lose a ruckman in Ben McEvoy who would have held back Lloyd Meek, Max Lynch or Ned Reeves and let go a Brownlow Medallist in Tom Mitchell who played sideways football and only held back Josh Ward’s midfield minutes.
It was time for Liam Shiels to move on, while Jaeger O’Meara played 21 games but finished only seventh in the best-and-fairest given a lack of damage by foot.
So for all their output Mitchell would believe eight wins is possible again.
The only change that dramatically affects the club’s output is Jack Gunston, who the club was keen to keep.
But with Mitch Lewis, Jacob Koschitzke and Emerson Jeka all worthy of opportunities it is an investment in the future, with Jeka playing full back at times late in the season given no room for him in the front half.
So Mitchell is cocksure and ridiculously bold and brimming with confidence about his strategy, but it is hard to argue it isn’t the right path for the future.
Is there a single excuse for Carlton not to make finals?
We know the Carlton tale of woe as they slid from finals contention with four losses on the trot and eight of the last 12 games despite a year that saw them dominate the Brownlow Medal and Coleman Medal.
They now have 19 players 25 and over, they are stacked for talent, they have ruck depth, they have drafted elite running power.
Yet at some point in the season will Michael Voss regret not relisting Liam Jones, who will be 32 in February but has been one of footy’s best one-on-one stoppers in recent years?
The Blues reason they have key backs Lewis Young and Caleb Marchbank to help star defender Jacob Weitering, whose drop-off post-injury was yet another reason for the post-bye fade out.
All of it adds up to another big year for Mitch McGovern – who in seven games as an intercept defender ranked elite with 2.7 intercept marks, 5.7 intercept possessions, 381 metres gained and a kicking accuracy of 83.5 per cent.
It would be folly to believe he is capable of a 25-game season given durability issues but if Weitering and McGovern miss only a handful of games between them Carlton will finish top four.
Is Lance Franklin on his last legs?
Of course he is.
Get over it.
Just as some in the media found sport in criticising Gary Ablett’s output in his final season, there will always be a subset prepared to cash in on Franklin’s advanced years and diminishing returns.
Franklin gave us footy’s best moment last year with his 1000-goal milestone.
He gave us 23 more chances to witness his greatness than we ever believed we would given his age – 35 – as well as some glorious goals amid his 52.28 for the season.
He also went goalless in two of the club’s three finals, barely sighted in the grand final amid Geelong’s domination and close-checking defenders.
So John Longmire’s goal is to instil discipline into Peter Ladhams so he is not suspended, to continue developing Logan McDonald so he isn’t droppable in grand final week.
Just as Alastair Clarkson pledged to diversify the Hawks’ forward line options after Franklin’s 3.4 in the 2012 grand final loss, Longmire must use the season to ensure his team doesn’t rise or fall on his 35-year-old star’s heroics in September next year.
Who will be the recruit of the year?
Jack Gunston.
Consider the match-ups he will get in a forward line with Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, Cam Rayner, Linc McCarthy, Charlie Cameron and at times Josh Dunkley.
Imagine the delivery he will get from Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage, Dayne Zorko and co instead of Jaeger O’Meara and Tom Mitchell bombing away.
He only kicked 32 goals from his 16 games last year but if he can survive the pre-season unscathed he’s a major upgrade from Dan McStay and a player much more likely to make an impact in a premiership charge.
He has had his back injuries before but he is 31 and exactly what Brisbane need to help break through for that elusive premiership.
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