AFL finals: Mick McGuane previews Fremantle v Western Bulldogs elimination final
The Western Bulldogs will hit Perth with one of the competition’s slickest midfields where they embrace speed and pressure. But will it be enough to penetrate Fremantle’s defensive wall?
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The rising power from the west against street brawlers from the western suburbs.
Miserly defence versus a midfield loves to attack the game at speed.
The winner of Fremantle and Western Bulldogs contest will take on either Geelong or Collingwood. So the challenge doesn’t become any easy.
Mick McGuane breaks down where the match will be won and lost.
FREMANTLE v WESTERN BULLDOGS
First Elimination Final
Perth Stadium, Saturday 8.10pm
FREMANTLE
HOW THEY PLAY
The Dockers play a strong, defensive brand built on a disciplined and compact team defence under Justin Longmuir. But strength in and around the contest is also a strength of the team. They are a kick-mark team that advances the ball down the ground. It is their intent to control the tempo of the game and not take too many risks. Getting strong field position through contest and stoppage wins is a priority as they want to have a strong front-half game. That makes them hard to score against.
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THE KEY
The strength of Fremantle is their miserly defence. The Bulldogs will want to keep the ball in motion, but the Dockers will defend the ground really well. All 18 players on the field accept and play their role in spatial defence. Luke Ryan and Alex Pearce are their traffic cops. They are the two who help organise the players in front of them to ensure they fill their positions in their defensive structure. Having assertive instruction and equal gap control within their set up is important as it will stifle the Bulldogs ball movement to penetrate the game. Another asset is the team’s forward 50 pressure. Lachie Schultz, Sam Switkowski, Michael Walters and Bailey Banfield are all important to the team’s defensive structure because that frontline of defence is where it all starts — pressure at the source. Without it, any defence can be exposed and especially against a ball-movement team like the Bulldogs.
THE THEME
Switching gears. The Dockers have got to be prepared to flip between modes of attack. There will be a time when the game calls for more attacking speed as well as going into their kick-mark tempo control. Fremantle must be adaptable when it comes to switching from one mode to the other. The Bulldogs prefer a frenetic, breakneck speed type of game where they can apply great pressure and invite mistakes from Fremantle to generate their turnover game. The Dockers have shown deficiencies when great pressure is applied because their kicking is questionable under pressure. We will find out about the maturity of the group, particularly with ball in hand as to what mode of attack they use and at what stage of the game they use it. The last time they met the Dogs in round 21 they had 129 uncontested marks — an example of them defending with the footy, marching the ball down the ground at will and scoring. But don’t expect them to be allowed that luxury in this all-important cutthroat final.
THE CHALLENGE
Where do the goals come from? Can Fremantle’s diverse and unconventional forward line stand up and find a way to kick a winning score? That’s probably the Dockers’ biggest knock because they have only averaged 79 points, which is 12th in the competition. Rory Lobb is crucial for them. He is their No. 1 goalkicker with 34 for the year. With Matt Taberner out, Griffin Logue is another who can potentially play forward as a swingman. Lobb, Schultz (28), Michael Frederick (26), Taberner (23), Walters (20) and Banfield (18) are their top goalscorers — four smalls among them — so that’s why it’s quite an unconventional attack. The Dockers must master what they do with the footy. First, is their efficiency, how often they score once inside 50. Second, is their ball movement from their defensive 50 to forward 50. Luke Ryan, Hayden Young and Brandon Walker must be prepared to take the game on aggressive kicks out of defence to get the ball into dangerous areas where they can challenge the Bulldogs defensively, but also give themselves the best chance to hit the scoreboard.
IF I WERE DOCKERS
This will be dependent on where Sam Darcy plays, but Alex Pearce should line-up on Aaron Naughton and Brennan Cox then goes to Darcy. Cox can then roll off Darcy — if he is not a usable option — to help the Naughton v Pearce match-up because Cox is a terrific spoiler. Fremantle must get the ball into the hands of Ryan and Young as much as possible to kickstart their offence out of D50 because they are great distributors. Those two generally make the right decision, but more importantly they execute that opportunity. With Liberatore out, they don’t need to tag, but they need to be conscious of the right match-up for Marcus Bontempelli if he spends 30-40 per cent time forward. Ryan is an undersized defender, but I would be giving him the job. Sean Darcy must push hard forward to expose Tim English defensively in an attempt to add another avenue to goal
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WESTERN BULLDOGS
HOW THEY PLAY
The Bulldogs are a high volume team that rely heavily on their midfield group to set-up their game style. At their best, they have a great ability to chain the ball out of congestion with efficient handball to put a teammate into space, who then becomes the kicker for the team. This is all due to having terrific contested ball-winning talent and structure in and around the stoppages. They love to attack the game at speed in order to get high inside forward 50 entries to give their forwards ample opportunity to hit the scoreboard.
THE KEY
The Bulldogs must improve defending the ground — this is where they have been too inconsistent in 2022. Denying the Dockers their kick-mark game style will be pivotal in this contest. They must force errors and generate turnovers. In their round 21 meeting, the Dockers were allowed to “walk” the ball down the ground far too easily. Luke Beveridge would be concerned with the ease Fremantle marked the ball that day and the Dogs would have done plenty of work on delivering a tighter, more compact team defence. How they defend the Fremantle small forwards will also be important. Schultz, Frederick, Walters, Banfield and Switkowski all have the capacity to hit the scoreboard. From rounds 15 to 23, the Bulldogs defence conceded 86.3 points per game — ranking them 13th in the league — and the opposition score per inside 50 percentage is one in four (14th). So either defensively one-on-one, Alex Keath, Ryan Gardner, Zaine Cordy, Bailey Dale and Tim Richards are too easy to play against or there is not enough pressure up the ground, giving the opposition easy entry and chance to hit the scoreboard. So, their defence overall needs to lift and be more ruthless against the Dockers.
THE THEME
To hunt with grunt. Beveridge does a great job getting into the psyche of his players and his message needs to be about hunting the footy with intent. The Bulldogs need to focus on winning the contest, winning clearance and turning it into a territory game. But it will only start if their midfield really gets after the footy post-clearance as well. I have no doubt in this game the ball will find itself on the ground a lot. And that should bode well for the Bulldogs as it is a strength of their midfield group. They must dominate this aspect of the game. They are without Tom Liberatore, who is their best inside ball winner. They will miss his toughness and clearance wins. But now that responsibility rolls over to Bontempelli, Josh Dunkley and, to a lesser degree, Jack Macrae. They need to master this facet of the game against Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong and Will Brodie, who — as a group — have had a terrific year. They must be prepared to get from contest-to-contest and outnumber their opposition and win the ball in loose or contested ball situations. The Bulldogs have got a free finals hit on the back of Collingwood’s final-round result over Carlton, so they just need to release the shackles, hunt with grunt and really assault the footy.
THE CHALLENGE
Mastering their attack. It has been an area of concern for them for most of the year, but when you are coming up against a miserly defence, they have to get it right. The Bulldogs will own enough of the footy to give their forwards ample opportunity to kick a winning score. Their highest inside 50 players are Bontempelli and Macrae and both need their “money kick” to hit targets when entering inside 50 against the Dockers defence. Gaining territory won’t be a problem, but how they enter against the defence that is in front of them will be important. Having half the number of F50 marks compared to Fremantle in their Rd 21 match cannot be replicated again. Ball use and decision making when going inside 50 has to be mastered in this all-important game. The Bulldogs might revert to a high kick-to-handball ratio, which is generally not their go-to, particularly if the rain that is forecast eventuates. They will have to use their feet more in wet conditions, which will complicate their efficiency even more.
IF I WERE THE BULLDOGS
Bontempelli can have a huge influence on this game, not only through the midfield, but also as a forward. If I was Bevo, I would be looking at a 70 per cent midfield to 30 per cent forward split. He has got the capacity to hit the scoreboard as a midfielder, but can also do damage as a forward. Bontempelli can be there as another option to take the pressure off Naughton and also Darcy, if he plays forward. Not only does he give them another avenue to goal, he thinks for others in order to manipulate space within their forward structure. He becomes a weapon at forward 50 stoppages with his leadership and his guile to manufacture scores from the stoppages he attends. Lobb will be a focal point and it will be interesting to see if Cordy gets a crack or if he turns to Gardner, allowing Cordy — or others — to come across and spoil. Gardner plays taller and he should get the match-up. In the absence of Libertore, Dunkley must assume the role as their number 1 inside midfielder and become the most dominant clearance player on the ground
McGuane: Point of difference that can deliver Dees a prelim
The reigning premier against the rising Swans.
It doesn’t get much bigger in week one of the finals.
Melbourne can take a huge step towards defending its title in the qualifying final, but the Swans have hit top gear at the right time of the year.
Mick McGuane breaks down where the match will be won and lost.
MELBOURNE V SYDNEY
Qualifying Final
7.50pm, Friday, MCG
ANALYSIS: MCGUANE’S PREVIEW OF TIGERS-LIONS BLOCKBUSTER
MELBOURNE
HOW THEY PLAY
The Demons are a renowned contested team that generates high inside 50m numbers as they trust their forwards in order to establish a strong forward half game. The point of difference in this contest is Melbourne’s well-organised team defence led behind the ball by Steven May and Jake Lever. Winning territory is an important part of Simon Goodwin’s coaching philosophy as it creates ample opportunities to score but also allows them to come in behind their attack to set up defensively and create a strong front half game.
THE KEY
Control the air. I’ve always felt that a team’s ability to win the contested mark count in defence, attack and between the arcs is the catalyst for success in finals footy. Winning critical contested marks in those three areas is a strong suit of Melbourne. At various stages of Friday’s game, Max Gawn, May and Lever will have a critical say in either setting up the Demons’ attack or defending Sydney’s ball movement with their trademark ability to win the ball back. If it can control the air, Melbourne will get the game on its terms.
THE THEME
Pressure and team defence. This will be a combative encounter, so the pressure Melbourne must impose on the Sydney midfield group of Luke Parker, Callum Mills, Chad Warner and James Rowbottom is imperative as those players have a capacity to win a lot of the footy. Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, James Harmes, Jack Viney and Angus Brayshaw must look to impose their physicality. Contested ball in finals is king, but you cannot rely on that alone. The Demon’s mids and forwards must apply manic and intense pressure against a dynamic ball-movement team like Sydney. Without it, any team defence can leak.
THE CHALLENGE
Inside-50 efficiency. The reason why this is so important for Melbourne is that it is coming up against an outstanding two-way running and pressure team. Pressure will be on the Demons’ ball carriers as the Swans apply great integrity and honesty in their pursuit to win the ball back. So composure, vision, decision-making and execution are all critical elements that Melbourne must master when it is going inside 50. Historically, the Swans absorb high inside 50 numbers, so the Demons must take away their opponent’s intercept game, starting with Paddy McCartin. If they don’t, the Swans’ ability to go at high speed from defence to attack will punish Goodwin’s team, and they will be scored against.
IF I WERE THE DEMONS
Expect Bayley Frisch to be picked up by Robbie Fox and Ben Brown to have Tom McCartin. There doesn’t appear to be a specific match-up for Paddy McCartin. But it is incumbent on whoever he picks up to always look to be a usable option. McCartin relishes high-kicks coming in so can use his aerial supremacy. Goodwin needs to ram home the message that the Demons need to lower their eyes when going forward and to use any hit-up opportunities that McCartin’s opponent creates. Gawn must spend almost a 50/50 split between ruck and forward, alternating with Luke Jackson. Gawn is becoming a serious threat when forward, even though he must tidy up his kicking for goal.
SYDNEY
HOW THEY PLAY
John Longmire’s Swans excel in contest, pressure and ball use. They generate ample opportunities from these three aspects of the game, due to their competitiveness, honesty, hard work and skills set. The MCG’s open spaces will suit their aggressive ball movement and if Melbourne is not attuned to applying high-end pressure, it will allow Sydney to play the game on their terms.
THE KEY
The key to this contest is contested ball, which should always be a focus in finals. As a barometer for Sydney this year there is enough evidence to suggest that when the Swans win contested possession, they also win the game. Their record is 12 wins and one loss when winning contested possession. Their record slips to four wins and five losses when they lose contested ball. At worst, they must equalise the contested possession count against a team which excels in this facet. Oliver, Petracca, Viney, Gawn and May are players who lead the way in this area. They cannot be allowed to dictate the contest.
THE THEME
Don’t get intimidated and don’t suffer from stage fright. The Swans must back in the system that got them here. Longmire’s message must be to win the contest and take the game on to get the ball forward at speed. They need to trust their forwards and provide them with opportunities that can challenge the Demons defenders. Sydney’s ability to score is a positive with the likes of Buddy Franklin, Isaac Heeney, Sam Reid, Will Hayward, Tom Papley and Logan McDonald all having the potential to hit the scoreboard and create headaches for May, Lever, Harrison Petty and Christian Salem. If the Swans score 100 points or more, they have got a 100 per cent winning record this season. They are averaging 94 points per game, which ranks 4th in the AFL. They are also the second-ranked team for scores per inside 50 percentage, which equates to nearly one score per every two entries.
THE CHALLENGE
Melbourne is capable of forcing any team it plays against into slow play situations. The Swans must keep speed-on-the-game by taking risks with their ball movement to challenge the Demons defenders. Melbourne will look to take that speed off the game, in an effort to force the Swans to kick down the line. Changing angles with short and long 45 degree kicks or moving the footy with lateral ball use to the open side is a must. You must not allow Melbourne’s team defence to get settled. If they do, Sydney’s flow of ball movement will be stifled. The Demons’ defensive profile is ranked No. 1 in the competition. They only give up 67.5 points per game and only 37.5 points from turnovers. Longmire will emphasise the need to keep the ball moving, to challenge Melbourne’s miserly defence.
IF I WERE THE SWANS
Callum Mills and Luke Parker must be used at stoppages to nullify the first-possession gains from Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca. The Swans need those two players to play a committed, disciplined and selfless role as we know how good these Demon mids are in that aspect of the game, particularly Oliver, who is the best in the game at stoppages. James Rowbottom must bring his competitiveness and be super aggressive against Jack Viney. If Angus Brayshaw plays in defence, he must be forced to defend and he cannot be allowed to become a roll-off or fold back defender to intercept the ball. Tom Hickey, when rucking, must be aware of Gawn’s capacity to slide forward. He must not concede goals to Gawn. Hickey cannot give Max a chance to dominate the air. Pressure must also be put on Luke Jackson. When attacking the game, Hickey or Sam Reid must challenge Jackson the other way. Venturing into defence is not Jackson’s strong suit so the Swans ruckman must expose him.
TIP: Melbourne by 14 points
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