Mick McGuane casts his keen eye over the Collingwood v Geelong qualifying final

There is no hiding from Geelong’s recent finals record – and there will be some anxious Cats if things don’t go to plan, writes Mick McGuane. Here’s what Collingwood must do.

Will the Collingwood fairytale to top all fairytales continue?

Or is Geelong about to put an exclamation mark on its status as the premiership favourites?

Ahead of one of the year’s most anticipated finals, AFL strategy and analysis guru Mick McGuane breaks down exactly where Saturday’s massive clash will be won and lost.

GEELONG v COLLINGWOOD

FIRST QUALIFYING FINAL, MCG, SATURDAY, 4.35PM

GEELONG

HOW THEY PLAY

The Cats are strong at scoring off turnover, the best at defending turnovers and their structure makes it difficult for opponents to move the Sherrin. They are also an excellent stoppage and contested ball-winning side, so there aren’t many chinks in their armour. Geelong is capable of different modes of attack but has reverted to a slower tempo to defend turnover better.

THE KEY

Dominating stoppage and contest will enable the Cats to generate territory and could be the point of difference in this clash. That will be a winning formula, with Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron eagerly awaiting supply, plus Tyson Stengle buzzing around at their feet. Geelong’s efficiency will be important, because the Pies gave up only 78.2 points per game since round 10 – ranked third in that period – and were No. 1 for opposition scores per inside 50. But if the Cats smash Collingwood at stoppage again, then the dam wall might burst, so the Magpies will try to break even in this area.

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Geelong’s forwards have been almost impossible to stop. Picture: Michael Klein

THE THEME

There is no hiding from the Cats’ recent finals record: they lost 15 of their 22 finals in the decade since their 2011 flag triumph. They must make a strong start because there will be some anxiety there, because all the players would be aware of their September struggles. Even more vital is that they continue to play the same way that made them the best offensive and defensive team in 2022. Geelong’s personnel has changed significantly, so they can’t get caught up in the hyperbole and should just concentrate on executing their role. Each player must stick to what they know.

THE CHALLENGE

Stifling Collingwood’s back-to-front ball movement. Geelong can only do that with strong team defence. Applying great pressure at the source isn’t one of the Cats’ strong suits and their structure often compensates for this, because they keep the ground tight and compact. Their defenders are very good at reading the play and intercepting – but poor-kicking rivals make them look better. If they don’t put someone like Nick Daicos under enough pressure, he will repeatedly hurt them. Geelong must clog the corridor, force Collingwood wide and limit the Magpies’ short ‘45s’.

IF I WERE THE CATS

Jack Henry is a good option for Brody Mihocek, while it’s important that Chris Scott capitalises on Mark Blicavs’ mobility to expose the lumbering Mason Cox when he is in the ruck. I’d also like to see Isaac Smith used as a high half-forward rather than just on a wing, because that will allow him to cause maximum damage with his powerful running and kicking. Something else that could work in Geelong’s favour is manipulating the match-ups to ensure Brad Close is Nick Daicos’ most regular opponent. Close has the ability to snap into a defensive mindset to dull Daicos’ influence and his offensive nous can challenge the first-year Pie’s defensive weaknesses.

Chris Scott shouldn’t be worried about his finals record. Picture: Getty Images

GEELONG INJURY LIST

Jake Kolodjashnij (concussion) test

Sam Simpson (quad) TBC

Cooper Stephens (hip) test

COLLINGWOOD

HOW THEY PLAY

The Pies are as exciting to watch as any AFL team. They are Richmond Mark II – go forward at will, take risks, embrace the corridor and aren’t afraid to make mistakes. Pressure underpins their game. Craig McRae’s men hunt the ball, tackle in numbers and outnumber at the contest as well as anyone, making them hard to score against.

THE KEY

The Magpies must keep the Cats under pressure, so complete buy-in is necessary. The first element of that is power at the ball and they need to get in their opponents’ faces, then be ready to shut down the next option. In other words, come forward to defend and don’t retreat. Geelong executes as well, and is as efficient, as any team, so the Cats will make Collingwood pay if the Pies don’t master these steps. They must snap into defensive transition as soon as they don’t win the ball and be as manic as possible to try to break Geelong down.

THE THEME

Be bold and brave with their ball movement. This approach is what made Collingwood a top-four team, so don’t change now. We’ve seen the Magpies take even more risks when they fall behind, even if critics say they too often bite off more than they can chew. There is a risk v reward dynamic but invariably something positive happens because of the dare they play with. Nick Daicos, Isaac Quaynor, John Noble and Brayden Maynard provide drive from defence and will need to be at their best, because Collingwood likely needs to score between 12 and 14 goals to win.

The Magpies need to be brave with their ball movement. Picture: Michael Klein

THE CHALLENGE

Improving their contested ball and clearance numbers. This has been a problem area since Brodie Grundy went down in round 6, leaving a heavy reliance on Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox. They lost contested possession by a combined 122 in the final month of the home and away season – the second-worst lead-in to finals on record – including minus-54 against Carlton. If there is a repeat, you can expect the Cats to again take 20 marks inside 50, like in round 3 when the teams last met.

IF I WERE THE MAGPIES

I would send Brayden Maynard to Tyson Stengle, with a focus on limiting Stengle’s inside-50 entries, because he is highly efficient with them. The other defensive match-ups should be Jeremy Howe on Jeremy Cameron, and Darcy Moore to Tom Hawkins. I’d also try to expose Jake Kolodjashnij with leg speed, because he can be vulnerable on those types of opponents when he is isolated. Any of Jamie Elliott, Jordan De Goey, Jack Ginnivan or Will Hoskin-Elliott can do that. There must be maximum attention given to Tom Stewart – and he cannot be allowed to find himself on Patrick Lipinski, otherwise he will gobble up intercept marks at will.

COLLINGWOOD INJURY LIST

Taylor Adams (groin) test

Brodie Grundy (ankle) season

Ollie Henry (hand) TBC

Nathan Kreuger (shoulder) TBC

TAB MATCH ODDS

Geelong $1.39

Collingwood $3.10

TAB FLAG ODDS

Geelong $2.90

Collingwood $10

TIP

Geelong by 22 points