AFL 2023: Sydney and Geelong on the verge of unwanted history as they attempt to make a late run for finals
Last year’s grand finalists Geelong and Sydney are staring down unwanted history in 2023 – and the numbers aren’t pretty. Can either save their season?
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The Swans and Cats are staring down unwanted history in 2023.
Both clubs sit outside the top eight with nine rounds to go, and not since 1963 have the previous year’s grand finalists both missed out on finals.
That year, Essendon and Carlton finished just outside the VFL top four. The expanded 18-team competition would make the record even more startling.
The two sides have struggled through unusually high injury tolls this year, however, Fox Footy commentator Cam Mooney has been particularly shocked at how Sydney’s young midfield hasn’t been able to build on last year’s success.
“They’re supposed to be the second-best team in the competition coming out of a grand final,” Mooney said.
“Sometimes when you have a bad loss it can knock the stuffing out of you. Do we think Sydney is a 12th or 13th-placed team? No, I don’t think anyone does.
“They’re still comfortably a top-eight team with what they’ve got on the talent board.”
Of particular concern for the Swans has been their ability to win the ball in the middle.
In 2022, they were on average winning the contested possessions by 4.1 per game and were up 0.9 on clearances. That’s dropped to -0.1 in contested possessions and -2.9 in clearances, the second-lowest tally in the AFL.
Whether it’s underachieving this season or overachieving in 2022, the core of the Swans midfield group being so young means that they have time to build back to those high levels on the ball.
“I did not expect Sydney to be outside the eight,” said Fox Footy’s Ben Dixon.
“He’s done a great job John Longmire to blood those young kids to come through and to get to a grand final.
“I expected them to take another step with the youth on their list. That just hasn’t been the case.”
Defensive woes have also been at the core of Sydney’s problems this year. Without both the McCartin brothers and Dane Rampe, they’re conceding almost 10 more points per game. Their opposition points from turnovers have also increased.
“You add all those things together and unfortunately their season didn’t quite pan out the way they wanted,” said Mooney.
However, their defensive drop-off has been nothing in comparison to what the Cats have experienced.
Geelong had the third-best defence in the competition in 2022, conceding 67.6 points per game.
That has slipped to 83.7 points in 2023, ranking 13th in the AFL.
Not one of last year’s grand final defence has played every game, while Sam De Koning, Jack Henry and Jake Kolodjashnij have all missed three or more games.
At the heart of the problem has been their inability to repel opposition attacks. They were the best team in the competition last year in allowing opposition points from turnovers – they’re now in the bottom third of the AFL for that mark.
“When you don’t have your full crop of senior players, you are going to struggle to compete week in, week out,” Mooney said.
“They had a really poor start to the year and then went on a run where they showed everyone how good they are. But unfortunately, just hit more injuries.”
The Swans and Cats take each other on at the SCG on Friday night in the second grand-final rematch of the year.
Geelong has dominated the past two meetings, but Sydney will have good memories of last year’s clash at the venue when Buddy Franklin kicked his 1000th goal.
Esava Ratugolea is back for the clash, stemming some of the Cats’ defensive woes – “He has turned into one of the best intercept players in the game,” said Mooney.
But it’s the Swans who have more to prove with the experts comfortable that last year’s premiers are better placed to make finals.
“I think Geelong will be okay, (I’m) not sure about Sydney,” said Mooney.
“I’ve got no problems saying they’ll be back playing finals because they’re a great club.
“If (Geelong) can start to get their players back over the next few weeks, bank a couple of wins and hit some form… they can run the table from the elimination final and go all the way.”
Rampe’s return: Swans co-captain ready for finals charge
Dane Rampe is confident Sydney is building up steam as a host of key players settle back into the line-up.
Rampe missed seven games from round 4 but has since returned, alongside a bevy of important Swans.
“It was tough being on the sidelines watching the boys, you feel like you want to get out there and help,” Rampe said.
“It’s good to be back and we’ve had a number of players arrive back now, (Callum) Millsy, Loges (Logan McDonald) and Isaac (Heeney).
“We feel like we’re starting to get our form back and getting our players back and hopefully building up a little bit of momentum.”
With Rampe and the McCartin brothers both off the park for the best part of two months, Sydney had to turn to some of their more inexperienced players during the middle of the season.
“Aaron Francis has come in and done exactly what we recruited him for,” Rampe said.
“Lewis Melican has been out for probably the best part of two years and come back and played a really important role for us.
“(I’m) really proud of those guys and hopefully it won’t be too far before we see Tommy (McCartin) back out there again.”
Rampe was one of several Sydney players on hand as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese opened the Swans’ new headquarters in Moore Park on Thursday.
Albanese lauded the growth of the Swans.
“I’m old enough to remember when the Swans moved to Sydney and it’s fair to say it was a pretty easy ticket to get back then, not exactly Taylor Swift,” Albanese said.
“I also remember the tough times when I joined Save Our Swans to ensure Sydney retained a side in the national competition.
“No outsider could have imagined your club in such a strong position, with such state-of-the-art facilities.
“But the people inside your footy club have always had a belief and a passion that has seen you not just survive but thrive.”
The facilities have incorporated the old facade of the Royal Hall of Industries and include several training areas, a modified indoor field and is set to bring Sydney’s AFL and AFLW teams together.
“I think what makes a real difference is the feel and the vibe around the club,” he said. “We’re a really integrated club now and that’s one thing that’s been so special.
“Being able to see everyone, walk in and just say G’Day in the morning, I don’t think you can put a number on how important it is.”
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