Mick McGuane: Richmond will miss finals this year, with six interstate sides to challenge Geelong and Collingwood for flag
A few weeks ago, Mick McGuane felt Richmond was still a premiership contender. But after the past three weeks, the Collingwood champion says the Tigers won’t make the eight. Here’s why.
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Sorry Richmond fans, I can’t see it happening for you this year.
It was only a few weeks ago I felt as if the Tigers still had the potential to be a flag contender, despite their lengthy injury list.
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But three consecutive losses — by a collective 137 points — have left me cold on their finals hopes.
Some of their key personnel is starting to come back, starting on Sunday against St Kilda, but they look vulnerable in terms of making the top eight.
I’m excited about them going forward, as Dimma’s Disciples will be better for the experience and surely 2020 has to give them a better run with injury, but I can’t find a spot for them in my predicted top eight.
Every game this round has a finals implication attached to it, starting with tonight’s Essendon-Greater Western Sydney game. So here’s my crack at a look into the future.
MICK’S END OF HOME AND AWAY LADDER PREDICTIONS
1. GEELONG
Leaving last week aside, Geelong has been the benchmark of the competition.
The Cats are a very good contested team. Innovation in attack has helped, with Gary Rohan, Luke Dahlhaus and Tom Atkins, while Gary Ablett’s permanent move to the forward line has been a winner.
Their brand is aligned to the modern game, with a strong forward half emphasis.
Their back six is strong and difficult to penetrate.
With four games at home, and only Adelaide and Brisbane as the only top eight opponents to come, Chris Scott would be expecting to finish on top.
2. COLLINGWOOD
Collingwood is winning, but not convincingly.
The challenge is how they manage getting some of their key personnel back, including the player I see as one of their most important, Taylor Adams.
Then, there is the delicate balancing act concerning Jaidyn Stephenson’s match conditioning during his betting suspension.
The Magpies have plenty of talent, but still need to get some continuity into their players.
Nathan Buckley looks to be experimenting at the moment. Levi Greenwood off half back appears to be preparing him for a finals clash with Gary Ablett, while the coach has also been having a look at the three talls structure with Mason Cox, Brody Mihocek and Ben Reid.
A three-game stretch from Round 17 — West Coast (away), GWS (away) and Richmond — will determine if they can finish second.
3. WEST COAST
Last year’s premiers will take a power of beating.
They will push Collingwood for second spot — meaning a home finals through to the Grand Final if they keep winning. Five of their last nine home games will come in Perth (including a Derby with Fremantle), with their toughest test coming against the Pies in Round 17.
Nic Naitanui’s return adds the X-factor they might need. He is a terrific hitout to advantage ruckman and the likes of Elliot Yeo, Luke Shuey and Andrew Gaff will derive the benefits.
Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling — and now Oscar Allen — present a challenge for any defence.
The importance of getting Tom Barrass back — and in good form — cannot be underestimated.
4. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
A 2019 finals berth would make it four Septembers in a row for the Giants.
But we expect nothing less from the Giants, given the depth of their list.
Love the fact Toby Greene — the Giants’ barometer — is back in the team. He will complement Jeremy Cameron as another avenue to goal.
Where Leon Cameron’s team finishes will most likely come back to its next month — Brisbane (home), Richmond (away), Collingwood (home) and Port Adelaide (away).
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5. ADELAIDE
Looked in trouble at 1-3 after the first month, but the Crows have bounced back off the back of great form from the Crouch brothers, Brodie Smith back in the side and solid work from Hugh Greenwood and Cam Ellis-Yolmen.
Taylor Walker has been questioned heavily by greats Wayne Carey and Matthew Lloyd, and Josh Jenkins has spent time in the SANFL and now has come back after a knee injury.
Friday night’s game against Geelong at GMHBA Stadium will tell us a bit more about the Crows’ mettle. They haven’t won there in 16 years.
The top four aspirations might come back to consecutive games against West Coast (in Perth) and Collingwood (Adelaide Oval) in Rounds 21 and 22.
6. BRISBANE
The Lions are the story of the year so far.
They have built their significant improvement on the back of strong contest work evident as far back as the JLT Series.
The coaching panel needs credit for getting the young list of players to live that contested mantra. The reward might be their first finals appearance since 2009.
Defensively, Harris Andrews has been the mainstay, Charlie Cameron has been breathtaking at times, Luke Hodge’s leadership has been strong, and first-year Lion Lachie Neale might win the Brownlow.
Game against GWS (away) and Port Adelaide (away) could define their season in Rounds 16 and 17, along with the last two rounds against Geelong (home) and Richmond (away).
7. PORT ADELAIDE
The most difficult team to get a handle on. Unstoppable against Geelong last week, but they are a team also capable of losing to lower ranked sides.
I love a coach who makes the hard calls and we’ve seen that from Kenny Hinkley recently when he dropped Paddy Ryder, Justin Westhoff and Sam Powell-Pepper.
If you underperform, you are on notice.
Their month of footy after the Bulldogs is tough. There is the Showdown with the Crows next week followed by the Lions, Tigers and Giants.
8. FREMANTLE
Rossy, take a bow.
No one would have thought the Dockers would be sitting inside the top eight at the moment, but this has been a reward for the coach putting the trust and responsibility into his players.
Jesse Hogan will miss a few weeks but it could have been worse.
The class of Michael Walters has been must-watch viewing. He has taken his game to a new level.
The experience of Nat Fyfe and David Mundy around the contest is invaluable, while Luke Ryan is now starting to get the credit he deserve.
Five home games will help, but the Dockers have only three current top eight teams in the back end of the season — West Coast, Geelong and Port Adelaide.
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