Run home: Champion Data predicts how the final AFL ladder will look

Geelong’s biggest worries are figuring out how to win after a week off and the possible effects of a run to September that is unlikely to present too many challenges. But is it all too easy?

Dustin Martin, Luke Parker, Dylan Shiel

Richmond chief executive Brendon Gale says the Tigers’ injury-ravaged season has fast-tracked fresh faces and strengthened the team’s depth as it prepares to launch a second-half assault on the season.

Asked if the Tigers still felt they can be a major player in the finals, Gale told the Herald Sun: “That’s the way we are looking at it.”

Richmond’s bid to stay alive in the premiership race has received validation from Champion Data’s 2019 ladder predictions, as well as from finals regular Nick Dal Santo.

“They need credit for how they have performed so far. If they get players back they’re still in a pretty good position,” Dal Santo said.

“I think we all know their best is well and truly good enough … We’ve seen in recent seasons that all you need is a good month and anything can happen.”

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Richmond has slipped to ninth on the ladder after consecutive losses to North Melbourne, Geelong and Adelaide. But the Tigers expect to regain up to six first-choice players — including captain Trent Cotchin — for Sunday’s clash against St Kilda and the stats gurus rate Richmond a 66 per cent chance to play in September.

Champion Data’s predicted ladder has Richmond seventh after the home-and-away rounds — which would set up an away elimination final against Brisbane at the Gabba, where the Tigers haven’t lost since 2004.

SCROLL DOWN TO SEE FULL LADDER PREDICTIONS AND YOUR CLUB’S RUN HOME

Gale said the club’s extended injury run had a silver lining.

“We have had a largely settled side over the last few years, and there hasn’t been that ability to play (young players),” Gale said.

“We’ve now had a good look at them and we’ve seen some of the guys have a real strong impact.”

“We will continue to have a good look at them, and it is very, very exciting.

“It has been a great growth opportunity for the entire club. We have a deeper list, we have got a few players coming back and we have found a couple of exciting players (in their absence).”

Gale said Alex Rance was no certainty to return if the Tigers make the finals, but he wouldn’t rule out what would be a remarkable comeback from a knee reconstruction.

“You never know,” he said. “He is a very driven and assertive individual, but that will be up to the medical (staff).”

Captain Trent Cotchin will return against St Kilda on Sunday.

Dal Santo said injured trio Toby Nankervis, Kane Lambert and Jayden Short were underrated pieces of the Tiger puzzle and could play key roles in the run home.

“I’d have trust they can click fairly quickly,” he said. “They should get a lot of those guys back in the next fortnight or so and that’s plenty of time to prepare for finals.”

Champion Data gives Port Adelaide the eighth-best chance of playing finals (63 per cent), edging out Essendon (47 per cent).

Fremantle is currently eighth but will finish 10th if the projections play out over the next nine rounds.

There is some good news for Carlton fans in the probability numbers — the stats gurus expect the Blues to move above Gold Coast to avoid the wooden spoon, handing Adelaide pick 2 in the draft.

PREDICTED WEEK ONE FINALS

Geelong v Adelaide

Collingwood v GWS Giants

West Coast v Port Adelaide

Brisbane Lions v Richmond

HOW IT WORKS

Champion Data’s percentages are based on hundreds of computer simulations of the final nine rounds.

Champion Data's finals chances with nine rounds to go.

YOUR CLUB’S RUN HOME

ADELAIDE

Round 15: Geelong (GMHBA Stadium)

Round 16: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Round 17: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)

Round 18: Essendon (Adelaide Oval)

Round 19: Carlton (MCG)

Round 20: St Kilda (Adelaide Oval)

Round 21: West Coast (Perth Stadium)

Round 22: Collingwood (Adelaide Oval)

Round 23: Western Bulldogs (Mars Stadium)

Draw difficulty: 7th hardest

We say: The next two weeks are tough then the Crows’ draw opens up, giving them a golden chance to jump into the top four — Champion Data’s predicted ladder tips in the Crows’ favour by a thumbnail over the Eagles. Their Round 21 clash in Perth shapes as an early final.

BRISBANE LIONS

Round 15: Melbourne (Gabba)

Round 16: GWS Giants (Giants Stadium)

Round 17: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Round 18: North Melbourne (Gabba)

Round 19: Hawthorn (UTAS Stadium)

Round 20: Western Bulldogs (Gabba)

Round 21: Gold Coast (Gabba)

Round 22: Geelong (Gabba)

Round 23: Richmond (MCG)

Draw difficulty: 8th hardest

We say: The Lions will play finals for the first time since 2009. They play five of their last nine games at the Gabba plus a trip to Launceston, which holds no fears after toppling Hawthorn there last season. Still a 14 per cent chance of making the top four, but that might require knocking off the Cats at home in Round 22.

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CARLTON

Round 15: Fremantle (Optus Stadium)

Round 16: Melbourne (MCG)

Round 17: Sydney (SCG)

Round 18: Gold Coast (Marvel Stadium)

Round 19: Adelaide (MCG)

Round 20: West Coast (Marvel Stadium)

Round 21: Richmond (MCG)

Round 22: St Kilda (MCG)

Round 23: Geelong (GMHBA Stadium)

Draw difficulty: 14th hardest

We say: Good news, Blues fans — Champion Data says Carlton will avoid the wooden spoon (and Adelaide will get pick 2 in the draft). A win against Gold Coast in Round 18 will draw the teams level on three wins and, given the Blues’ far superior percentage, that might be enough for 17th spot. The Saints in Round 22 is the next-best opportunity for David Teague to add to the wins column.

COLLINGWOOD

Round 15: North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)

Round 16: Hawthorn (MCG)

Round 17: West Coast (Perth Stadium)

Round 18: GWS Giants (Giants Stadium)

Round 19: Richmond (MCG)

Round 20: Gold Coast (MCG)

Round 21: Melbourne (MCG)

Round 22: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Round 23: Essendon (MCG)

Draw difficulty: 13th hardest

We say: The Pies play only three current top-eight sides in the final nine rounds, although they are all on tough interstate trips — to Perth, Adelaide and western Sydney. Nathan Buckley might not be happy with how they’re playing but they will start clear favourite in every other game, unless Richmond gets on a major roll before Round 19.

Brodie Grundy and the Magpies are a 78 per cent chance to make the top four.

ESSENDON

Round 15: GWS Giants (Marvel Stadium)

Round 16: Sydney (MCG)

Round 17: North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)

Round 18: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Round 19: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)

Round 20: Port Adelaide (Marvel Stadium)

Round 21: Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium)

Round 22: Fremantle (Perth Stadium)

Round 23: Collingwood (MCG)

Draw difficulty: 5th hardest

We say: The Bombers are just one game out of the eight and Champion Data says they won’t make it, although they have by far the best chance of any team out of the finals (47 per cent). To get there they need to knock over the Suns, Roos and Dogs, win all the 50-50 games — against Sydney, Port Adelaide and Fremantle — and maybe find another win. They might still be in with a shot when they face the Pies in Round 23.

FREMANTLE

Round 15: Carlton (Perth Stadium)

Round 16: West Coast (Perth Stadium)

Round 17: Hawthorn (UTAS Stadium)

Round 18: Sydney (Perth Stadium)

Round 19: Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium)

Round 20: Geelong (Perth Stadium)

Round 21: St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)

Round 22: Essendon (Perth Stadium)

Round 23: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Draw difficulty: 9th hardest

We say: The biggest loser in Champion’s predictions, dropping from eighth to 10th. The Blues, Hawks, Dogs, Saints and Bombers are all likely wins, but where does the sixth come from? An upset in the western derby would be huge.

GEELONG

Round 15: Adelaide Crows (GMHBA Stadium)

Round 16: Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium)

Round 17: St Kilda (GMHBA Stadium)

Round 18: Hawthorn (MCG)

Round 19: Sydney (SCG)

Round 20: Fremantle (Perth Stadium)

Round 21: North Melbourne (GMHBA Stadium)

Round 22: Brisbane Lions (Gabba)

Round 23: Carlton (GMHBA Stadium)

Draw difficulty: 18th hardest

W e say: Geelong’s biggest worries are figuring out how to win after a week off, fighting for a home final at GMHBA Stadium and the possible effects of a run to September that is unlikely to present too many challenges, according to Champion Data. The Cats have the easiest run home of any team and could win every game. An upset is likely somewhere but they will still be multiple games clear on top of the ladder.

Geelong will lobby the AFL for a home final.

GOLD COAST

Round 15: Sydney (SCG)

Round 16: Richmond (Metricon Stadium)

Round 17: Adelaide (Metricon Stadium)

Round 18: Carlton (Marvel Stadium)

Round 19: Essendon (Metricon Stadium)

Round 20: Collingwood (MCG)

Round 21: Brisbane Lions (Gabba)

Round 22: Hawthorn (Marvel Stadium)

Round 23: GWS Giants (Metricon Stadium)

Draw difficulty: 4th hardest

We say: The Suns had three wins in the first four rounds and that could be it for 2019. Likely wooden spooners unless they can beat Carlton at Marvel Stadium or repeat last year’s ridiculous upset win against Sydney — but you’d think the Swans won’t let that happen again.

GWS GIANTS

Round 15: Essendon (Marvel Stadium)

Round 16: Brisbane Lions (Giants Stadium)

Round 17: Richmond (MCG)

Round 18: Collingwood (Giants Stadium)

Round 19: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Round 20: Sydney (Giants Stadium)

Round 21: Hawthorn (UNSW Canberra Oval)

Round 22: Western Bulldogs (Giants Stadium)

Round 23: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)

Draw difficulty: 11th hardest

We say: Currently sit third and Champion Data says they are an 80 per cent chance of finishing in the top four. Should sell some tickets to home games against Collingwood and the Swans and have a chance to improve their awful 2-14 MCG record when they travel to meet Richmond in Round 17. Should roll into September on a month of wins — is this the year Leon Cameron drives the Ferrari all the way to the last Saturday in September?

HAWTHORN

Round 15: West Coast (MCG)

Round 16: Collingwood (MCG)

Round 17: Fremantle (UTAS Stadium)

Round 18: Geelong (MCG)

Round 19: Brisbane Lions (UTAS Stadium)

Round 20: North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)

Round 21: GWS Giants (UNSW Canberra Oval)

Round 22: Gold Coast (Marvel Stadium)

Round 23: West Coast (Perth Stadium)

Draw difficulty: Hardest

We say: Hawthorn has been on the bottom edge of the eight for most of the season but Champion Data has them as just a 12 per cent chance to play finals — or, to put it another way, an 88 per cent chance to miss the eight for just the second time in the past decade. They would need at least seven wins from their last nine matches and have to play all of the current top four.

MELBOURNE

Round 15: Brisbane Lions (Gabba)

Round 16: Carlton (MCG)

Round 17: Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium)

Round 18: West Coast (TIO Traeger Park)

Round 19: St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)

Round 20: Richmond (MCG)

Round 21: Collingwood (MCG)

Round 22: Sydney (MCG)

Round 23: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)

Draw difficulty: 17th hardest

We say: The Demons should improve their ladder position but the top eight is a bridge too far, even with a friendly fixture. With just four wins and a horrible percentage the Dees would have to win every game — and the stats gurus give them a 3 per cent chance of doing that.

The Demons are playing for pride in the rest of the season. Picture: Michael Klein

NORTH MELBOURNE

Round 15: Collingwood (Marvel Stadium)

Round 16: St Kilda (Blundstone Arena)

Round 17: Essendon (Marvel Stadium)

Round 18: Brisbane Lions (Gabba)

Round 19: West Coast (Perth Stadium)

Round 20: Hawthorn (Marvel Stadium)

Round 21: Geelong (GMHBA Stadium)

Round 22: Port Adelaide (Marvel Stadium)

Round 23: Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)

Draw difficulty: 3rd hardest

We say: The Roos have had a good month but the fixture hasn’t done Rhyce Shaw any favours. Of the five teams currently blow North Melbourne on the ladder, the Kangas play only one in the run home — Melbourne in Round 23. But they would fancy their chances against St Kilda, Hawthorn and Essendon.

PORT ADELAIDE

Round 15: Western Bulldogs (Adelaide Oval)

Round 16: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Round 17: Brisbane Lions (Adelaide Oval)

Round 18: Richmond (MCG)

Round 19: GWS Giants (Adelaide Oval)

Round 20: Essendon (Marvel Stadium)

Round 21: Sydney (Adelaide Oval)

Round 22: North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)

Round 23: Fremantle (Adelaide Oval)

Draw difficulty: 6th hardest

We say: Good luck predicting how Port Adelaide will perform any given week, let alone over a nine-week stretch. But the dispassionate number crunchers are confident enough to slot the Power into eighth spot, giving them a 63 per cent chance of returning to finals for the first time since Luke Shuey kicked a goal after the siren in an elimination final in 2017. They will be barracking for the Eagles to pip Adelaide into fourth spot, setting up a blockbuster September Showdown.

RICHMOND

Round 15: St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)

Round 16: Gold Coast (Metricon)

Round 17: GWS Giants (MCG)

Round 18: Port Adelaide (MCG)

Round 19: Collingwood (MCG)

Round 20: Melbourne (MCG)

Round 21: Carlton (MCG)

Round 22: West Coast (MCG)

Round 23: Brisbane Lions (MCG)

Draw difficulty: 12th hardest

We say: Wags noted the Tigers are back in familiar territory after slipping to ninth following their bye last week, but Richmond fans shouldn’t panic. Champion Data has the Tigers finishing seventh, which would mean an away elimination final against Brisbane at the Gabba — where Richmond hasn’t lost since 2004. To get there they must win the next two and improve their woeful percentage in the process, starting with a match against another Marvel Stadium tenant — those games haven't gone so well this season (think North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs), so they will need to be switched on.

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ST KILDA

Round 15: Richmond (Marvel Stadium)

Round 16: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)

Round 17: Geelong (GHMBA Stadium)

Round 18: Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium)

Round 19: Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)

Round 20: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Round 21: Fremantle (Marvel Stadium)

Round 22: Carlton (MCG)

Round 23: Sydney (SCG)

Draw difficulty: 16th hardest

We say: Alan Richardson, look away now. If he has to win a final to keep his job, the stats boffins say he has a 4 per cent chance of making it (if somehow they do, we’ll reassess). If Champion Data’s predictions play out, the Saints will slip to 13th after the home-and-away season. But they can’t blame the fixture with matches to come against bottom-six sides North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne and Carlton.

SYDNEY

Round 15: Gold Coast (SCG)

Round 16: Essendon (MCG)

Round 17: Carlton (SCG)

Round 18: Fremantle (Perth Stadium)

Round 19: Geelong (SCG)

Round 20: GWS Giants (Giants Stadium)

Round 21: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Round 22: Melbourne (SCG)

Round 23: St Kilda (SCG)

Draw difficulty: 10th hardest

We say: Teams won’t be looking forward to playing the Swans given recent form, but can they actually sneak into the top eight? Champion Data gives them a higher chance than Hawthorn, but 14 per cent is the 11th-best rating in the comp so it’s still highly unlikely. They play the bottom three teams and you’d give them a good chance against Essendon and Fremantle, but Rounds 19-20 — Geelong and GWS — might do them in.

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WEST COAST

Round 15: Hawthorn (MCG)

Round 16: Fremantle (Perth Stadium)

Round 17: Collingwood (Perth Stadium)

Round 18: Melbourne (TIO Traeger Park)

Round 19: North Melbourne (Perth Stadium)

Round 20: Carlton (Marvel Stadium)

Round 21: Adelaide (Perth Stadium)

Round 22: Richmond (MCG)

Round 23: Hawthorn (Perth Stadium)

Draw difficulty: 15th hardest

We say: Champion Data has the Eagles dropping from fourth to fifth — behind Adelaide — but it will be touch and go. The two teams meet in Round 21 and clashes against Collingwood and Richmond will also be proverbial eight-point games.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Round 15: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Round 16: Geelong (Marvel Stadium)

Round 17: Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)

Round 18: St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)

Round 19: Fremantle (Marvel Stadium)

Round 20: Brisbane Lions (Gabba)

Round 21: Essendon (Marvel Stadium)

Round 22: GWS Giants (Giants Stadium)

Round 23: Adelaide (Mars Stadium)

Draw difficulty: 2nd hardest

We say: The Dogs are playing better than a 15th-placed team but Champion Data expects them to drop another rung based on winning probabilities in a very tough run home — the only team in the bottom seven they face from here is Melbourne (16th). Amazing to think the 2016 flag could be followed by 10th, 13th and 16th-placed finishes.