Mick McGuane looks at the clubs with the best depth in the AFL heading into the 2023 season
The Dogs’ list profile suggests they should be one of the teams to beat this season. So anything less than a deep finals run will heap the pressure on coach Luke Beveridge.
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He might have signed a contract extension over the off-season after being clearly identified as the man to take the Western Bulldogs forward.
But that doesn’t mean that the pressure is off Luke Beveridge entering 2023.
In fact, it is quite the opposite.
After taking a deep dive into every AFL list with Glenn McFarlane for The Ultimate Player Ratings project, the depth of talent at Beveridge’s disposal became crystal clear.
We tried to be harsh in rating every player across the competition out of 10 and from that we came up with the average score for every team to establish the Ultimate AFL List Depth Ladder.
The Bulldogs finished in fifth spot, the narrowest of margins behind last year’s runner-up Sydney.
After playing off in a Grand Final themselves in 2021, this Bulldogs side didn’t go close to realising its potential last season as it finished eighth before bombing out of the race with an elimination final loss to Fremantle.
Beveridge is a premiership coach and the club clearly still has significant faith in him.
But if the Bulldogs’ best players stay healthy this year, this is a side which should not only be participating in finals but should believe it is a legitimate chance to win the flag.
With the list they have got, anything less than a deep run into September could only be deemed as a failure – and then the pressure will mount on Beveridge.
The additions of recruits Rory Lobb and Liam Jones will help the cause and have bolstered the list.
Don’t expect Lobb to kick 36 goals like he did at Fremantle when he was the main man last year, but his presence will take pressure off Aaron Naughton.
The Bulldogs were one-dimensional going forward at times last season, with Naughton their clear No. 1 target.
At the other end, key defender Jones will add some aerial and intercepting strength.
But unless the Bulldogs develop a better whole-ground team defence and apply manic pressure on the opposition ball carrier coming out of their forward line, Jones might not make much of a difference.
The other change many Bulldogs fans would no doubt like to see is around week-to-week selection changes.
There is always a horses for courses selection and it does take a squad mentality to win a premiership.
But don’t flirt with form by making unnecessary changes to your 23 each week and quit gifting games to players who have not earned them.
It is a big year for the Bulldogs — and Beveridge.
OVERACHIEVING PIES?
The greatest thing a coach can do is maximise the talent of a playing list and get his players to consistently reach close to their optimal levels.
Collingwood coach Craig McRae was able to do exactly that last year.
The Magpies don’t have the best playing list in the competition — we have them ranked seventh this year — but McRae was able to extract maximum output from his role players in the charge to a preliminary final last season.
Collingwood players also need to take some credit for surrendering their egos and accepting the roles they were given.
The chaos game plan and a go forward mentality that was implemented last year also suited McRae‘s personnel, with the likes of Jordan De Goey, Scott Pendlebury, Jamie Elliott, Taylor Adams, Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe all being very instinctive players.
Expect the Magpies to again play a similar way this year.
The recruitment of Tom Mitchell — who we rated an 8/10 — will add ball-winning ability, creativity and leadership through the midfield.
Fellow recruits Dan McStay (rated 6.5), Bobby Hill (5.5) and Billy Framptom (4.5) are not superstars, but can play important roles within the team structure this season.
Darcy Moore (9) is a star and should prove a stabilising influence in his first season as captain.
People talk about the element of luck, which was there for the Magpies last year as they won 11 games by 11 points or less.
But sometimes the opposition can also have an element of luck, which in some cases, was the reason why they got so close in those games.
BLUE DAYS AHEAD?
Some say Carlton are a lock to play finals this year.
I’m not that bullish just yet.
We have rated the Blues’ list as the 9th best in the competition.
There’s no doubt they have a talented spine — Jacob Weitering, Lewis Young, Patrick Cripps, Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay were all rated 8.5 or higher — and this group will be heavily relied upon to influence games.
It’s their “edge” players who need to lift their ratings for the Blues to be certain finals contenders.
A half-point increase here and there can make a difference to overall rankings.
If Walsh was fully fit and was playing in the first month, he would be a 9 instead of an 8.5.
Similarly, intercepting key defender Mitch McGovern was rated only a 6 because it is hard to trust his body after two years which have been ruined by injury. He could become the extra intercepting marking defender they desperately need.
There is still a knock on the ball use of some of Carlton’s outside players — including Lachie O’Brien and Blake Acres when placed under immense pressure — as well as a question mark over the upside of their small forwards.
If that group of Matthew Owies, Corey Durdin, Jesse Motlop and Josh Honey continue to grow and develop, it will make an enormous difference to their forward-half game.
There is plenty of optimism about Carlton’s finals hopes and rightfully so.
But they still have a lot of work to do.
POWER OUT EARLY?
It is far to easy to say that the only way Ken Hinkley keeps his job beyond this year is a finals appearance for Port Adelaide as a lot can happen between now and season’s end.
Of course, he should be judged differently if he loses his best five players to injury early in the season and the team remains competitive.
But all things being equal, the out-of-contract coach needs to take his side to September in his 11th year at the helm.
Whether Hinkley has the cattle to do that is up for debate, given we have ranked the Power in 10th spot on the list depth ladder.
Two players who could lift their ratings significantly this year — and boost Port Adelaide’s prospects — are Junior Rioli (5.5) and Orazio Fantasia (5.5).
If they can stay on the park, they could add plenty of X-Factor to the side’s attack and kick a lot of goals between them.
Could a settled Rioli be Port Adelaide’s version of Tyson Stengle, who resurrected his career through hard work and a club that wanted to give him a another chance?
Part of the Power’s problems last year could be attributed to the lack consistency that was shown by far too many players, who were not at their combative best.
There was some progress made, including rejigging an ageing midfield by adding young stars like Connor Rozee and Zac Butters through there.
However, a 0-5 start to the season proved costly and Port Adelaide has another difficult draw to start this year. They can ill afford a similar return this season otherwise Ken’s position will come under serious threat.
How good is their new look midfield? And how hungry are they to bank that first win?
We’ll find out in round 1 when they face off with one of the best teams and best midfields in the competition in Brisbane.
Time to roll up the sleeves.
CAT ATTACK
There are a lot of parallels between recent dynasty teams like Hawthorn and Richmond and this Geelong side.
The Cats’ best players are stationed across each of the three areas of the ground and that is why they are a very well-balanced and dominant team.
The versatility that Blicavs provides is often understated.
Geelong has the oldest playing list but there is a strong underbelly of youth coming through to support the star factor, who are hungry to secure a regular spot within the team. That internal pressure for spots is extremely healthy
Recruits Tanner Bruhn, Jack Bowes and Ollie Henry have all come to the club with something to prove and will help create further pressure on the incumbents.
Another with something to prove is midfielder Max Holmes, who missed the premiership due to injury last year but was rapidly developing before our eyes in the second half of last season.
If you want to say Geelong is going to slide, do so at your peril.
There has been no hint of that happening just yet.
The language out of the Cattery suggests they are ready to launch another assault on this year’s premiership.
DEE-LICIOUS LIST
If any side has the potential to form a dynasty in coming years, it is this Melbourne list.
The players are there — many of whom are in their prime.
It’s now over to them and the coaching staff to maximise their potential and cash in with more premierships to add to their 2021 triumph.
Let’s not forget that Melbourne started last season 10-0.
From there, they often faded away meekly in some games on their way to a disappointing straight-sets finals exit.
It was a reality check about how complacency and/or a poor preparation plays a part as to why teams or players fail to win back-to-back premierships.
I know as I lived it.
But having watched the Demons train and play over summer, that hunger looks to have returned in spades.
It appears they are in tune with each other and are physically and mentally prepared for the season which is about to confront them.
The inclusions of ruckman Brodie Grundy and wingman Lachie Hunter — who we rated 8 and 7 respectively — have only strengthened Melbourne and the rest of the group knows that those two players are going to make them better.
There is plenty of excitement about young forward Jacob Van Rooyen, who was pushing for a debut late last year.
He will get a chance at some stage, but right now who is he going to play in front of?
Let the fun begin…….
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