Mick McGuane: Carlton v Essendon preview, 1-44 player ratings
Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps have long been held as one of the best midfield duos in the game. AFL analyst Mick McGuane’s player ratings tell a different story.
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A blockbuster clash awaits between a pair of arch rivals on Sunday night when Carlton meets Essendon at the MCG.
The Blues desperately need to return to the winners’ list as their finals aspirations quickly slip away, while the Bombers will be looking to further consolidate their spot in the top-eight.
Here is what AFL analyst Mick McGuane is thinking ahead of the big game.
WHO IS CLOSER TO A PREMIERSHIP?
Talent alone doesn’t win premierships.
Teamwork, selflessness and sacrifice does.
I always ask the question of any playing group I’ve been involved with or watch — Is there a clear and unconditional, team-first attitude within the group?
You look at Carlton’s list and think they should be right in the premiership window.
Sam Docherty is 29, Patrick Cripps and Adam Saad are 28, Charlie Curnow is 26, Jacob Weitering and Harry McKay are 25, Adam Cerra is 23 and Sam Walsh is 22.
Yet, in every game I’ve watched Carlton play this year, I’m yet to be convinced that they bring an unconditional team-first attitude.
The Blues are a group that are too inconsistent in showing that and are not completely committed to leaving their egos on the hook.
Individuals don’t always conform to playing their roles, particularly in defensive transition.
Until I’m convinced an attitude shift has been made on a consistent basis from Carlton, I can’t possibly have them ahead of Essendon on the premiership clock.
The Bombers on the other hand have shown a transformation in that area, both in how they are being coached and how they are playing this year.
They are finally putting a high price on their intent to chase and pressure.
They are not just going through the motions with their defensive pursuit skills.
Many of Essendon’s important players have missed significant football this season.
Key forward Peter Wright — who was the side’s leading goalkicker last year — is yet to play a game.
But the players are invested, playing their roles and are getting the job done as a team.
ACCEPT THE INVITATION, BLUES
If ever there was a time for Carlton to release the shackles and attack a game with fast ball movement off halfback, this is the week.
Blues coach Michael Voss has constantly talked about contested ball and defence this year and those two areas are generally holding up well.
Carlton defensively are conceding an average of 77 points per game, which is ranked fifth in the competition. That’s a tick
The Blues also sit sixth for opposition scores from turnovers, giving up just 44.9 points a game from that scoring source. Another tick.
The problem is the message to defend seems to have been taken too far.
Carlton don’t want to attack the game and are instead looking to defend with the footy.
Players are in survival mode, playing restricted and are lacking confidence to pull the trigger through fear of making a mistake, particularly back of centre.
The Blues ball movement is mediocre and lacks bravery, as indicated by scoring on average only 10.4 points per game from their defensive 50 end of the ground.
This week, the door is open to do something different.
Essendon ranks last in the competition for generating forward-half intercepts, which shows they are not structurally sound at stopping opposition ball movement from back to front.
If ever there was an invitation to play fast and get the game on your terms by generating scoring chains from your backline, it’s against a team that ranks 18th in that area.
Carlton’s ball movement must be full of dare and risk, with the likes of Adam Saad, Sam Docherty and Jacob Weitering kickstarting their side’s attack with speed, changing angles and generating overlap handballs when they win the ball back at halfback.
What the Blues need — and what their forwards desperately want to see — is an end to being risk adverse out of the back half.
If a mistake happens and a turnover goal happens playing that way, learn from it and try not to repeat it.
But give yourself a chance to score going the other way, because averaging 57 points a game is not going to win you many matches of footy.
SPIN THE MAGNETS, VOSSY
It has been a lot of same-same about Carlton in recent weeks.
The Blues need to spin the magnets and be innovative in order to challenge Essendon’s coaches’ box.
Carlton is a system-based team but when the results are not going the way you want them to go it’s either the system is flawed or individuals aren’t capable of playing their roles within that system to a high and consistent level.
So why not change things up?
Mitch McGovern was recruited on big money as a forward, but has been playing as an interceptor down back.
Could he be thrown forward to further stretch an undersized Bombers defence and throw up an element of surprise?
A three-goal haul may be the result.
If the Blues are to stand a chance, they can’t let Zach Merrett do as he likes.
Over the past three weeks, Merrett has averaged 35 disposals and is playing with a go-forward mentality that has seen him average 9.3 score involvements over that time.
Give him time and space and he will cut the Blues’ team defence apart.
With George Hewett missing with concussion for Carlton, why not send Sam Walsh to tag the Essendon skipper?
Walsh can use him as a competitive starting point and when he has a chance to work off Merrett, make the most of it.
There has always been a question on Merrett’s intent to defend, so why not test it with Carlton’s best runner and disposal accumulator.
THE BOMBER BOLTER AND THE BLUES SLIDER
Who would have thought Essendon’s leading goalkicker midway through this season would be Kyle Langford?
Coming into this season, Langford’s best return in a season had been 15 goals in 2019.
He’s already booted 24.11 from 12 games this year and isn’t getting enough credit for it.
Considering Peter Wright has been sidelined with a shoulder injury, it’s been an incredible return from a hybrid forward who is only 192cm and has previously spent a lot of his time on a wing.
Langford has taken 33 inside-50 marks this season and 11 contested marks, to go with an average of 15.2 disposals a game.
He’s got a midfielder’s mind and gets to good spots to be dangerous.
His judgment is underestimated.
This is why I’ve got Langford top-10 in my 1-44 rankings of players who are set to feature in Sunday’s clash between Carlton and Essendon.
The rankings are based on how I have viewed each player’s overall performance this year.
I had a lot of players ahead of Carlton forward Harry McKay, who came in at No. 27.
There’s no point sugar-coating his season, which has been marred by poor goalkicking.
He’s on a monster contract and is paid to kick goals, but until he overcomes the mental challenges he is facing around his goalkicking and brings more consistency of effort he won’t turn that ranking around.
Accuracy of 35.4 per cent in front of the big sticks is nowhere near good enough.
There’s no doubt that Charlie Curnow (38 goals) and Zach Merrett (averaging 29.4 disposals) have been standouts for their respective sides this season.
But Jake Stringer also deserves some plaudits for the Bombers.
After a limited pre-season, he has got himself match fit and is reaping the rewards.
His impact on games has been a big part of Essendon’s rise up the ladder.
Sam Walsh’s rating at No. 13 might surprise a few, given he is averaging 29 disposals.
You can’t question the effort Walsh brings each week, but in my eyes he still needs to improve his decision making and ball use.
Carlton is desperate for a creative midfielder than hurts the opposition with precise disposal.
Until Walsh gets better in those areas, he won’t separate games the way other great players do.
The other thing that separates teams is their bottom-six players and Essendon’s bottom-six is performing a lot better than Carlton’s at this point in time.
That’s another reason as to why one side is in the top-eight and the other is not.
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