Mick Malthouse: What bottom three clubs must do to turn around fortunes and it could happen

For all the promise of finishing on the bottom, North Melbourne has little to show for it as far as top-quality draftees go, writes Mick Malthouse.

The Kangaroos, the Bombers and the Eagles are all enduring tough times.

There are three teams languishing at the bottom of the ladder, but only one has the potential to “do a Melbourne” and rise suddenly from the ashes.

There is hope for all three.

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NORTH MELBOURNE

North Melbourne’s days of finishing in the top four or at least the final eight seem like a distant past, but it was actually only six years ago. They don’t remotely look like a power now.

The AFL’s 10-year rule in the ’70s was the Kangaroos’ salvation. It was designed to serve the perennial bottom-dwellers … and it did. The Roos signed a brilliant coach in Ron Barassi, and champion players like Gary Dempsey, Doug Wade, John Rantall and Barry Davis from other VFL clubs, Barry Cable from Western Australia, and Malcolm Blight from South Australia. David Dench, Keith Greig, Sam Kekovich and Wayne Schimmelbusch flourished alongside such additions. It was a magnificent list. And those were the glory days.

Jack Darling is superman one day, and Clark Kent the next.

It took until the ’90s for another successful period, when Denis Pagan had a workmanlike team that got the job done, with a standout superstar in Wayne Carey.

Since then, North Melbourne has been up and down.

It has never been one of the big, cashed-up clubs, instead always struggling to balance the books, to gain a big supporter base, a big corporate following.

In this AFL-designed socialism, it is fine if you can keep hold of and develop the players you draft. But there is a hint already that Jason Horne-Francis may decline the offer to sign on for longer, and that is a worry.

To counter the draft we have free-agency, which doesn’t help the bottom clubs.

North lost Robbie Tarrant, who has held up at Richmond and would have been an ideal tutor for Ben McKay had he stayed.

For all the promise of finishing on the bottom there is little to show for it as far as top-quality draftees go. Early draft picks need to be players that can fit into the team’s top 20 by their second or third year by replacing players who are simply not good enough.

So where are they all?

The expectations on Horne-Francis are ridiculous in his first year. Tarryn Thomas has superstar potential but has drifted. Jy Simpkin is a good player, but not yet a superstar. Nick Larkey is very good but can’t do it by himself. And McKay has played well, but also copped a couple of injuries.

The Kangaroos have been on the end of some huge losses this season.

This is not to say that the Kangaroos aren’t having a go. I’ve watched them bust their guts to win. I’d like to say the same about Essendon but I can’t. And West Coast is all over the shop.

A loss is a loss is a loss, and continued big losses are soul-destroying.

Add in negative media attention due to staff departure, and football department reviews, and it’s a nightmare.

ESSENDON

As a casual observer, it appears that Essendon’s biggest problem this year is that it hasn’t progressed. Without growth, you don’t improve.

For a young team still mostly intact, coming off a credible eighth last year, the Bombers have gone backwards in every area. They’ve lost their daring, their run, their tenacity at the football.

Their tackling has been abysmal all year. The forward line seems almost dysfunctional without Jake Stringer. When the team is up and running it looks good, but that has been a rarity, with ball movement happening like treading treacle and not taking ground off the opposition.

And their opponents are making them pay for their softness. It is very rare that we call an Essendon team soft.

It has a list of ball-getters an arm long. Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett, Dylan Shiel, Andrew McGrath. And an energetic ruckman in Sam Draper. Plus, a mercurial forward in Stringer, and a solid backline.

But kids like Nik Cox and Archie Perkins – both in their second season – just haven’t come on. The opposition has worked them out. Having young Harrison Jones out injured has also hurt.

Archie Perkins hasn’t had the same impact for Essendon as he did last year.

The simple reality is the Bombers won’t make the final eight this year. But they could next year, if they do the right things now.

This is not giving up, this is accepting the truth and taking the opportunity to dissect, carve up, and come out with what you want. The club you want to be.

Essendon can recruit after the season, but that’s not the issue. It has to build on what it has, to progress and improve across the rest of this season. It must give its supporters hope for 2023. Because there is hope for the Bombers, lots of it.

WEST COAST

West Coast is a victim of being a very successful club over a long period of time.

The trade for Tim Kelly was indicative of the Eagles’ hierarchy’s thinking – that the club was close to another premiership.

But it was a false summer. Kelly is a very good footballer but he has changed the dynamics of the West Coast midfield dramatically. He is not a defensive player, which forced Luke Shuey and Elliot Yeo to be a lot more accountable and took away their natural offensive flair.

Covid and injuries have not been kind to the Eagles. That is not an excuse, it is simply fact. Another fact is that it has an ageing side.

Nic Naitanui is good in cameos these days, but his absence through injury leaves the Eagles exposed in the ruck. Josh Kennedy will go down as the club’s greatest full-forward, along with Peter Sumich, but can’t go forever. Jack Darling is superman one day and Clark Kent the next.

The Bombers are struggling but it can all turn around quickly if they get things right now.

Jeremy McGovern has been picking and choosing for over two years now and every club has worked out to attack exclusively through his opponent, while his intercept marking has become very deep instead of across half-back. This puts more pressure on Tom Barrass and Shannon Hurn.

Captain Shuey is constantly at the mercy of injuries and has lost his dash. Yeo is in and out. Jamie Cripps is not the high-pressure forward he used to be and is running out of puff. Andrew Gaff is a shadow of himself and will end his Eagles career without a premiership (like Naitanui and Brad Sheppard).

The Eagles no longer have the capacity to perform at the level that won them the 2018 premiership. Kennedy and Darling are too often prone to one or neither contributing. Liam Ryan and Willie Rioli are superstars but don’t get the necessary ball supply.

Andrew Gaff is a shadow of himself as the Eagles find themselves struggling after Covid and injuries.

And some of their kids coming through aren’t as good as the supporters would hope.

Put simply, West Coast needs a super rebuild. It will take patience, but it’s nothing it hasn’t done before. It is starting a long way back, something it isn’t used to, but it is a wonderful club that is extremely well managed. It will get there.

WHERE THE JOURNEY BEGINS

When I took over West Coast it was 11th of 14, and probably needed a Victorian to point out the major differences in playing in Perth to Victoria, and how to overcome the travel bogey. No WA team had ever won at the MCG. We almost had to turn 180 degrees in game style, from a big open ground in WA to the tight, narrow grounds in Victoria. When we overcame those obstacles, we were on the up.

Tarryn Thomas has superstar potential but has drifted this year.

We convinced the players it was a challenge to take on, not a negative to dwell on.

Collingwood was 16th of 16 when I began there. Three seasons later we played off in a Grand Final against the mighty Brisbane Lions and went down by a kick and a bit.

We moved on a lot of players in those first couple of seasons and went to the draft for the likes of Ben Johnson, Leon Davis, Josh Fraser, Rhyce Shaw, and Shane Wakelin very late, and traded for James Clement and Brodie Holland.

Led beautifully by Nathan Buckley, Scott Burns, Paul Licuria and Anthony Rocca we became a very competitive side and it set us up for the next 3-4 years.

There is light at the end of the tunnel for Essendon. Further away for North and West Coast, but still there. It will take time, patience, a lot of effort, some luck, and a lot of good players, but change will happen. Hope is still there.