Football analyst Mick McGuane’s mid-season report card for the six teams that have the bye in round 12
Who has come from nowhere this season? Mick McGuane outlines the surprise packets from the six clubs on the bye.
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The mid-season bye is a great time to reassess where teams are at, what has worked and what hasn’t in 2022.
Footy analyst Mick McGuane puts the six teams on the bye in round 12 under the microscope.
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CARLTON
What they’ve succeeded at:
Carlton is playing a strong and combative brand, which is no coincidence considering how their coach Michael Voss went about his footy. The Blues’ contest and stoppage work is in the top three in the competition. They compete strongly and they hunt the footy. Their contested possession differential is +15, which puts them No.1 in the league. When you play the Blues, you know you’re in for a very physical game. They’re strength is their ability score from stoppages. They are averaging over six goals a game from their stoppage dominance, led by their skipper Patrick Cripps and George Hewett.
Where they’ve failed:
The Blues still leak scores and allow opposition teams to transition the ball too easily through their team defence structure. The Blues are giving up an average of 81 points per game, which ranks them ninth in the competition. If they want to be a top-four team, that team defence must improve. That’s going to be difficult with no Jacob Weitering, Mitch McGovern and Oscar McDonald.
Surprise packet:
Sam Docherty. What an inspirational story to come back and average 27 possessions per game. To get back to this level, given what he’s gone through, has been a huge positive influence to his teammates. Charlie Curnow also needs to be recognised. The way he’s played so far this year has been astonishing given the amount of football he has missed. To be leading the Coleman Medal after 11 rounds is a huge achievement.
Who needs to lift?
Lewis Young is under the microscope now in the absence of the Blues losing their defensive general in Weitering. Young now becomes their first-choice lockdown defender so it’s a great opportunity to see if he can step up to fill the void. He was brought to the club at the expense of Liam Jones, so now it’s his time to shine. They have limited key defenders available due to their injury issues right now, so a lot of pressure is on Young to lead and perform.
Overall grade: 7/10
ESSENDON
What they’ve succeeded at:
What we’re seeing is the evolution of Essendon’s future before our eyes. Zach Reid is going to be a bona fide defender. Archie Perkins has gone from that high half-forward role to the midfield. Nic Martin has been a revelation even though his defensive pursuit skills must improve, and they’re getting games into the likes of Sam Durham and Tex Wanganeen, while Ben Hobbs has a big future. Harrison Jones is a beauty and it was great to see him play again last week. They’ve got Nik Cox to return and Sam Draper will continue to develop and become their No.1 ruckman for a long time.
Where they’ve failed:
Essendon has failed at both ends of the ground and that’s why their win loss record reads 2-9. They’ve lost their potency in attack, except for Peter Wright, and their ball movement has been disappointing. The Bombers were exciting to watch last year, but this season they’ve lost their ability to score. They’re ranked 15th in the league for scores per inside 50 percentage whereas they were fourth last year. Perhaps that’s a by-product of no Will Snelling, Kyle Langford, Harrison Jones, Jake Stringer and James Stewart due to injuries. Losing Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti hasn’t helped either.
Surprise packet:
Mason Redman has taken his game to another level this year. He oozes leadership down back and you can just see he is a selfless teammate you want to play with. He’s always instructing, using his voice and he is physically and emotionally invested in his game and the team’s performance. He plays with great effort and energy, and the coaches would be hoping that can rub off onto his fellow teammates.
Who needs to lift?
Devon Smith, Dylan Shiel and Jake Stringer. If Smith wants to get back to being the point of difference that he provided in his best-and-fairest year, which was his tackling and his pressure, he needs to do it better and more often in the forward half. Shiel needs to improve his defensive intent and become a two-way player. And as for Stringer, he has failed himself after a brilliant 2021 season. Surely the comfort of an extended contract is not the reason as to why he came back in poor physical condition. Or is it ? Has he been allowed to get away with it by the coaches and conditioning staff? Have they been too soft on him? Where are their ruthless standards especially when he is one of their most important players. He’s played only four games this season, which is not good enough and is reflective of his condition.
Overall grade: 2/10
RICHMOND
What they’ve succeeded at:
The Tigers’ turnover game is back, and off the back of that their scoring power has been very efficient. On average they’re scoring 98 points per game, which is second in the league, so their offence is working. They’re also dangerous once the ball goes inside 50, scoring almost 50 per cent of the time, ranking third in the competition in this area. One of their biggest ticks is their ability to generate forward-half intercepts through pressure and structure. The Tigers are the third best team in the AFL at doing so and importantly scores come from this strength of their game.
Where they’ve failed:
As good as they’ve been forward of centre, it’s a leaky defence that has let Richmond down. Their consistency in games and ability to play hard and endure the full 100-plus minutes has been a problem. In games against Sydney, Carlton and St Kilda they gave up strong leads, which would frustrate Damien Hardwick to no end. Those teams were able to get a hold of the Tigers for significant periods and it’s cost them dearly.
Surprise packet
Josh Gibcus. I just love seeing a young player being introduced to the AFL system who can adapt so well. He’s a key defender, which is always difficult to master when you’re inexperienced, and has performed roles on more experienced key forwards and played beyond his years. He’s composed, confident and he backs himself in the air. He’s the future of their defence.
Who needs to lift?
Jack Graham. I have great admiration for his work rate and his ability to win crucial contested ball contests, but what the team needs from him is better ball use going inside 50. He’s a trustworthy kick at goal, but he must improve his inside 50 entry and hit his forward target more than what he currently does.
Overall grade: 6/10
ST KILDA
What they’ve succeeded at:
The Saints are hard to play against and, as a result, hard to score against. Their team defence has been outstanding. They’re giving up only on average 70 points a game, which is third-best of all teams this season. When teams do go inside St Kilda’s 50 they’re struggling to score, hitting the scoreboard only 41 per cent of the time, which makes them the fifth-hardest team to score against in that area of the ground. Without pressure, the Saints become an average team. When they apply it, like they currently are, the Saints are in the conversation to be a top-five team.
Where they’ve failed:
Their ball movement isn’t terrible, but it can certainly improve. Also there is upside in their turnover game. They’re the fourth-worst side in terms of their defensive-50 to inside-50 transition. They score 26 points per game from defensive-half transition, which is third-worst in the competition. There’s been times in games where they can transition the ball better and come through the corridor more rather than playing safe footy to protect turnovers. Brett Ratten will be imploring his players to play more aggressively with their ball movement. This will trouble opposition team defences and give Max King, Tim Membrey and Rowan Marshall better opportunities.
Surprise packet
Jack Sinclair has become a very influential player for the Saints. He offers versatility to the team whether being a half-back flanker or going through the midfield. He is averaging 27.7 disposals a game, he’s got a good balance of inside and outside ball-winning ability, plays with penetration, and importantly he creates intercept opportunities for himself as he reads the cues of the opposition ball carriers. The other Saint who has really impressed me this year is Josh Battle. He is growing in confidence playing as a defender and its helped Ratten shore up their defence.
Who needs to lift?
Dan Butler. His pressure is elite, but it can’t be just that. He must get his hands on the footy more, as he’s averaging only nine disposals a game, which is below average for his profile. When he does get the ball, he’s a good decision maker and he generally executes well. He’s currently averaging only 3.3 scoring involvements due to his low disposal count and only scored five goals from his eight games.
Overall grade: 8/10
PORT ADELAIDE
What they’ve succeeded at:
The Power have succeeded at arresting their horrid start to the season, and now are in the conversation to play finals again. That would be quite remarkable given their 0-5 start. The Port has turned it around by rediscovering its strong, aggressive and assertive team defence of the past couple of years. From round 4, when it started to turn, to round 11 they’re giving up only 10 goals a game. They’ll win more games than they’ll lose if they can maintain that.
Where they’ve failed:
Early on, they failed miserably in terms of their contest work, which means they couldn’t get their offensive game going. Port Adelaide, as we know, has been a very strong territory team in the past few years and that’s been built on winning contests and clearances and getting the ball forward. This season, at least at the start of it, they weren’t winning enough crucial contests to get the ball to their potent forwards. They also weren’t efficient when they were getting it in, either. They’re only averaging 74 points a game, but with Charlie Dixon back in the team that might be about to change.
Surprise packet
Todd Marshall. We were waiting for someone to take charge in that forward line when it was revealed Dixon was going to miss the early part of the year. It was either going to be Mitch Georgiades or Marshall for mine, but the latter has leapfrogged the former. Port recruited Jeremy Finlayson to strengthen their forward line but can his output be trusted when things get tough? Marshall though has blossomed into the player we’ve all expected him to become.
Who needs to lift?
Aliir Aliir. I’m looking for him to overcome defensive forwards who are taking away his intercept game. He tends to get frustrated when his space is denied as he’s not accustomed to a forward playing on a defender. It’s impacting his decision making as to when he leaves his close-checking opponent and look to influence the play. My simple advice would be to play the game on its merits and don’t second guess yourself.
Overall grade: 5/10
GWS GIANTS
What they’ve succeeded at:
Their stoppage game has been as strong as ever. Tom Green has taken his game to another level off the back of Jacob Hopper being injured and playing only one game. When you can also roll through Josh Kelly and Tim Taranto to complement a fit Braydon Preuss or a Matt Flynn, or even use a hybrid ruckman in Zach Sproule, it certainly helps. Their points from stoppages is healthy as they’re scoring over six goals per game from stoppage wins, which is the fourth-best in the league.
Where they’ve failed:
Their inability to get better defensively still irks me. They’re giving up 91.5 points per game, which is far too many. Last year they were seventh for points against, and this year they’re 13th. We heard over summer that team defence was a huge focus. Their opposition’s scores per inside 50 has gone from sixth last year to 14th this year. Interim coach Mark McVeigh is trying to shore up his defence by sending Harry Himmelberg back into defence to help out Sam Taylor and Nick Haynes. Until they master “team defence”, the Giants will be a part of the also-rans.
Surprise packet
Tom Green. He’s always been talented, but his game has gone to a higher level in 2022. With Hopper out injured, Green has taken the responsibility to be the big-bodied inside midfielder and the dominant clearance player the Giants desperately need. He is a bit like the Giants’ version of Patrick Cripps, as he can take a ruck contest which allows Preuss or Flynn to push forward and disrupt the opposition’s defence. He’s given them flexibility and versatility.
Who needs to lift?
Nick Haynes is just a bit off right now. His intercept marks and intercept possessions have dropped, and so have his marks in general and his disposals and metres gained. He needs to get back to the assertive defender that we all love and admire. The other for me is Lachie Whitfield, who I think clearly has more to give even though he’s injured at the moment. When he returns I want to see him play with great energy and effort. When he hit gut runs to receive the footy he adds so much potency to the Giants’ ball movement.
Overall score: 4/10
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