AFL Grand Final 2016: Crazy bets on this year’s decider

YOU might laugh at the punter who has backed Fletcher Roberts to win the Norm Smith Medal. But he’s already ahead of those who had Brisbane for the flag.

THE Grand Final is one of the biggest betting days on the sporting calendar, and inevitably not all of those wagers are sensible.

There is almost $500,000 riding on the winner, and punters are almost split on the outcome with Sydney ($235,809) just ahead of the Dogs ($225,316).

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Half of those punters will go home empty-handed, but they are a lot closer than plenty of others this year.

More than $3400 was bet at TAB on the Dogs missing the top eight altogether in 2016 while $239 was thrown away on bets for Sydney to miss the finals.

That’s nothing on the $459,706 in unsuccessful bets with TAB on Hawthorn to win its fourth-straight premiership.

Fletchers Roberts is long odds to win the Norm Smith Medal — but that hasn’t deterred one punter.

The Swans have been the second-best backed team in flag betting, with the Dogs coming in at No.4 behind GWS.

More than $100,000 was bet on each of West Coast and Adelaide to lift the cup, which made sense at different stages of the season.

Most of the $60,412 placed on a breakthrough Fremantle flag was presumably bet before the season started.

Collingwood ($25,674 in wasted bets) and Richmond ($16,716) have no shortage of optimistic fans but the word delusional comes to mind when you consider $3408 was placed on Essendon to claim the premiership. We can only assume that was all before 12 players were suspended by WADA.

The Bombers were second-last on the flag betting ladder but were streets ahead of 18th-placed Brisbane. The Lions should contact all of the punters who forked out $372 on a shock Brisbane premiership and give them a free membership.

Brisbane never looked like premiership contenders in 2016.

In tomorrow’s game, more than $20,000 is riding on Lance Franklin winning the Norm Smith Medal, while Luke Parker ($13,240), Dan Hannebery $19,263) and Marcus Bontempelli ($9283) have also been heavily backed.

If he keeps Buddy goalless a Fletcher Roberts Norm Smith is not entirely out of the question, but punters obviously don’t expect that to happen with just $7 on the Dog to claim best-afield honours.

George Hewett ($14), Zaine Cordy ($22), Sam Naismith ($39) and Jeremy Laidler ($42) are also rank outsiders.

Franklin is the hot favourite to kick the first goal in the Grand Final, with $4188 bet on that outcome. Gary Rohan ($3221), Tom Papley ($2745) and Clay Smith ($2709) are also popular picks.

But Joel Haming ($5) and Callum Mills ($6) are on the nose and just $15 has been placed on Shane Biggs to repeat what he did in Round 15 and kick the first goal against the Swans.