AFL Grand Final early betting guide: Best bets, latest market moves

PUNTERS are split down the middle over the winner of Saturday’s Grand Final and there is big money on the first premiership to be decided in extra-time. WHERE IS THE MONEY GOING?

PUNTERS are split down the middle over the winner of Saturday’s Grand Final.

More than $150,000 has been bet on each team with TAB and incredibly just $14 separates the teams, with Sydney holding a slight edge.

The Swans opened at $9 for the premiership, drifted to $15 before Round 1 before being crunched into $1.90 this week.

The Dogs were $17 for the flag when markets opened and before the elimination final against West Coast you could get $67 odds for them to lift the cup. They will start as $2.40 outsiders.

If you’re looking for pointers from the last time these teams met, Luke Parker had an equal game-high 34 disposals (he’s $3.50 to win the most on Saturday), the Swans led by 10 points at halftime before losing by four (the Sydney/Bulldogs halftime/fulltime double is $9 and the Dogs are $26 to win by three or four points) and Shane Biggs was the unlikely first goalkicker. If he can repeat that effort in the Grand Final it could turn $1 into $41.

Can the Dogs repeat their thrilling win against Sydney in Round 15?

WHO’S HOT

Sydney to cover 9.5 points line ($1.90)

Though the head-to-head betting is split, the line is clear-cut with 92 per cent of the money on the Swans to cover the line.

“Punters think if the Swans are to win that it won’t be a close finish,” TAB’s Nick Quinn said.

Western Bulldogs Under 39.5 points ($2.80)

In contrast to the line betting, punters are backing the Bulldogs in margin betting with 46 per cent of the money on the Dogs to win by under 39.5 points.

“There are a lot of neutrals jumping on the Bulldogs bandwagon this weekend and that is reflected in this market with the Dogs heavily backed,” Quinn said.

WHO’S NOT

Sydney ($1.60)

Despite being clear favourites, not everyone is convinced on the Swans with 50 per cent of the head-to-head money on Sydney to prevail.

“There’s a lot of TAB customers who are thinking that there is still one more chapter in the Bulldogs fairytale, and they have been solid at $2.40 since the market opened,” Quinn said.

Josh Kennedy for Norm Smith Medal ($8)

Kennedy is equal-favourite with three other players but has received the least amount of support with Luke Parker (13 per cent), Dan Hannebery (12 per cent) and Marcus Bontempelli (7 per cent) all better backed than the powerful midfielder (4 per cent).

“Lance Franklin ($11) has been best backed for the Norm Smith with 15 per cent of the market so far,” Quinn said.

WHAT THE?

There has been $1500 placed on it to be a draw at fulltime this year at $34.

NICK QUINN’S BEST BET

The Swans looked brilliant beating the Cats and $1.60 on them winning the big dance looks a great bet.

NICK QUINN’S VALUE BET

Daniel Hannebery is a star and looks terrific value at $8 in North Smith markets.

LATEST GRAND FINAL ODDS

Head-to-head

Sydney $1.60, Western Bulldogs $2.40

Margin

Sydney under 39.5 points: $2.10, Sydney over 39.5 points: $5. Western Bulldogs under 39.5 points $2.80, Western Bulldogs over 39.5 points $11.

Norm Smith Medal

$8 Dan Hannebery, Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Marcus Bontempelli

$11 Lance Franklin

$13 Isaac Heeney

$17 Luke Dahlhaus, Lachie Hunter, Tom Mitchell

$21 Matthew Boyd, Tom Liberatore, Jack Macrae

$26+ other players

First goalscorer

$7 Lance Franklin

$11 Tory Dickson, Jake Stringer

$13 Isaac Heeney, Gary Rohan, Kurt Tippett

$15 Marcus Bontempelli, Ben McGlynn, Tom Papley, Clay Smith

$17 Tom Boyd, Xavier Richards

$21 Luke Parker

$26+ other players

All odds: TAB