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The introduction of live pick trading is going to revitalise the AFL draft, writes Mark Robinson

THIS will be a draft like never before. It’s goodbye to the predictable — and boring — sequence of pick, name; pick, name; which is often predicted by football media in the first 10 selections. We’re in for an extravaganza, writes Mark Robinson.

Connor Rozee is a hot prospect out of South Australia. Picture: Calum Robertson
Connor Rozee is a hot prospect out of South Australia. Picture: Calum Robertson

EVER watched a movie called Draft Day?

Sonny Weaver is the general manager and Penn is the coach of the Cleveland Browns and they are in fierce discussion ahead of NFL draft night about a player and what pick he should be taken with.

Sonny Weaver Jnr: [discussing a potential player] Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane.

Coach Penn: Your opinion. He plays in my system.

Sonny Weaver Jnr: He doesn’t block!

Coach Penn: I don’t need him to block, I need him to run! Which he does, like a bat out of hell. Which takes the pressure off of my offence. OK? I got 52 Tarzans in that locker room; I could use a Jane!

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It’s only a sports movie with a happy ending, but it’s a drama-rich sports movie if you’re into the machinations and the behind-the-scenes discussions ahead of next month’s AFL national draft and about what your club needs and, this year, for the first time, how your club can wheel and deal to move up the draft order.

Of course, you’re into it.

The raging swapping of draft picks during the recent draft period, where 56 of the 94 draft picks were traded, and the insane appetite of fans around the country, tell us the most anticipated draft in history will soon be upon us.

For the first time, selections can be traded on the night.

Will Sam Walsh be taken with pick one? Picture: Getty Images
Will Sam Walsh be taken with pick one? Picture: Getty Images

It means the predictable — and boring — sequence of pick, name; pick, name; which has often been accurately predicted by football media in the first 10 selections and which has been the traditional draft process, has been revitalised.

“It creates the ability for it to be unpredictable and that creates excitement, so, really, it’s the unknown,’’ the AFL’s Josh Vanderloo said.

The machinations are endless.

Does Carlton keep pick No.1? Does it draft Geelong Falcons star Sam Walsh?

Gold Coast has picks No.2, No.3 and No.6. Do the Suns trade No.6 and another first-rounder to St Kilda for its pick No.4 to land the lauded South Australian trio of Jack Lukosius, Izak Rankine and Connor Rozee, and hope they bond for the long haul?

Or do the Suns take the King twins at No.2 and No.3?

If that happens, does Port Adelaide, which has picks 5, 10 and 15, go after St Kilda’s pick No.4 to get Lukosius.

Or does Adelaide, which holds selections 8, 13 and 16, make an offer the Saints can’t refuse, say No.5 and No.13 for No.4?

Champion Data AFL analyst Daniel Hoyne predicts the dealing from Port Adelaide and Adelaide will be intense.

“The biggest battle will be between Port Adelaide and Adelaide,’’ Hoyne said.

Izak Rankine is a massive talent from South Australia. Picture: Tom Huntley
Izak Rankine is a massive talent from South Australia. Picture: Tom Huntley

“Right now, Port have got five and Adelaide have got eight, but Adelaide have got a few first-rounders as well. So you might see that battle to get ahead to land Rankine, or Lukosius.’’

Suns list manager Craig Cameron agrees. “We’ll listen to offers. I’m sure they (the Crows) will knock on our door and I’m sure the boys down the road at Port will too,’’ Cameron told superfooty.com.au.

Pick No.4, meanwhile, could have its own ‘Most Wanted’ poster by draft night.

Vanderloo, who is head of competition and player movement and who has overseen the live trading revamp, anticipates great intrigue about what happens with the Saints’ first pick.

“There’s multiple scenarios,’’ he said. “Clearly pick No.4 is going to be an interesting one after Gold Coast have the two before it.

Herald Suns odds promo picture

“I’d also look further than that and say there may be a player available that a club thought they’d never be able to access, now suddenly they can say, ‘Righto, let’s put all our chips in and move ahead in the draft to get that player’.

“In the past, they never had that opportunity. We’ve had case studies in the past where clubs have said, ‘Gee, that player slipped, we wish we could’ve taken him,’ but their next pick was 15 away. This provides more list flexibility and clubs can be more strategic to achieve the outcomes they want.

“But pick No.4 feels like it will be talked about over the next month.’’

Clubs are lining up to draft Jack Lukosius. Picture: Sarah Reed
Clubs are lining up to draft Jack Lukosius. Picture: Sarah Reed

In Draft Day, “swifties’’ are pulled at every turn to foil and fool rival clubs.

That’s unlikely to happen on AFL draft night.

There’s an understanding the future pick trading will be agreed to before the draft. In other words — and if No.4 is in play — the Saints won’t go “on the clock’’ and announce a trade with Adelaide after agreeing in principle to a deal with Port Adelaide.

It would be a dramatic play, but this ain’t no movie.

“We’ll expect the cubs to have talked about these scenarios and when they eventuate they will be in a position then to execute them,’’ Vanderloo said.

Anticipate any curveballs?

“Clubs are pretty strategic in this space. I have no doubt they will try to put other clubs under pressure and take what’s on offer.’’

In that regard, the Crows and Port, for example, could be in discussion with the Saints on the day of the draft depending on how badly they want Lukosius, if he’s still available.

Vanderloo and a team at Champion Data have been working since February to develop and test the new draft program.

A second mock draft was held on Thursday morning and a third mock draft will be held the night before the draft.

Who will snap up Max and Ben King? Picture: Michael Klein
Who will snap up Max and Ben King? Picture: Michael Klein

Telecast by Fox Footy, the first-round extravaganza will be held on Thursday, November 22, and the remaining rounds the next day.

For the first time, club officials won’t be on the floor, they will be in separate rooms, where they will reveal their picks or trades via computer.

Cameras will be in each of the 18 rooms, but unfortunately not with volume.

Each club has five minutes to trade a pick or select a player, and if a trade is made, the selection has to be revealed in the same five-minute window.

In the unlikely case a club can’t make a future trade under AFL rules, because it has already traded away future picks, the draft program will reject a trade.

Logistics aside, the revamped national draft has all clubs in play.

Connor Rozee is a hot prospect out of South Australia. Picture: Calum Robertson
Connor Rozee is a hot prospect out of South Australia. Picture: Calum Robertson

“Certainly, every club is part of this draft no matter where their current selections lie,’’ Vanderloo said.

“Clubs will be looking at all scenarios, especially over the next five weeks leading up to the draft, and if they find one which works and the player they want is available, I definitely think there will be trades. Whether it happens in the first round, second round or third, there will be trades, definitely.’’

The AFL is hoping 5000 fans attend the draft at Marvel Stadium.

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Original URL: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/expert-opinion/mark-robinson/the-introduction-of-live-pick-trading-is-going-to-revitalise-the-afl-draft-writes-mark-robinson/news-story/0038b7c214011daee716876a6fd34695