Sydney should be premiership favourite based on the past 10 rounds
ON the evidence of the past 10 weeks the only conclusion that can be drawn is the Sydney Swans should be favourite for the premiership. So why aren’t they?
Jon Ralph
Don't miss out on the headlines from Jon Ralph. Followed categories will be added to My News.
SIMPLE question: Why aren’t we rating Sydney as premiership favourite?
Do too many of us have egg on our faces after writing them off after their winless first six games?
Because when you consider the evidence of the past 10 weeks it’s the only conclusion you can draw.
TIMELY RETURN: JACK’S BEST EXACTLY WHAT SWANS ORDERED
RUN HOME: YOUR TEAM’S FINALS CHANCES
Sydney’s single loss in that period was against Hawthorn.
Jake Lloyd went down in the opening minutes and Sam Reid was gone by halftime.
It took a Jarryd Roughead goal in the final seconds to beat them.
They have smashed St Kilda (50 points), Melbourne (35 points), the Western Bulldogs (46 points) and fallen over the line against Essendon and Richmond.
After beating GWS last week, they have beaten the sides ranked third, fifth, seventh, ninth, 10th and 11th.
Of the challengers, only Geelong (Simonds Stadium, Round 20) and Adelaide, (Adelaide Oval, Round 22) remain.
In 1975 North Melbourne won the flag from 0-4 when president Allen Aylett famously told the players to get behind coach Ron Barassi — he wasn’t going anywhere.
But Sydney has come from the clouds in the closest season in history, at a time when putting together a winning streak is supposedly impossible.
The reasons are fairly simple given the excuses for the early barren run.
Luke Parker (knee) and Kieren Jack (hip) were hampered, Dan Hannebery just couldn’t get a kick and Tom Papley, Dane Rampe, Isaac Heeney and Jarrad McVeigh were missing.
Sydney’s midfield is again up for the fight.
The ball movement is more precise, the tackling pressure is immense and Champion Data numbers confirm it.
But the biggest giveaway is that John Longmire’s poker face has returned, the coach hilariously playing down any positives after the win over GWS.
He knows it is game on for 2017.
Just as Essendon’s barren year gave them a chance to blood kids, the Swans didn’t waste those early rounds.
Nic Newman is a revelation, Lloyd and Zak Jones are putting together breakout years, Lewis Melican has played 11 games, George Hewett hasn’t missed a beat.
Adelaide remains premiership favourite despite four losses in the past 10 rounds — to Hawthorn, Geelong, Melbourne and the Roos.
Sydney — on the fourth lining of TAB betting at $6 — is perfectly placed just a game out of the top four.
Storming home to win the flag when all was lost would not eclipse the Western Bulldogs’ euphoric premiership charge of 2016.
But in a season that just keeps giving, the sequel might be nearly as good as the original.
FLAG ODDS
$3.50 — Adelaide
$5 — Greater Western Sydney
$5.50 — Geelong
$6 — Sydney
$7 — Port Adelaide
$21 — Essendon
$26 — Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast
$51 — St Kilda, Western Bulldogs
Odds: TAB
After falling to Carlton at the MCG, the Swans were $101 to win the premiership. They have now tightened into $6, which was their opening price minutes after the 2016 Grand Final.
— TAB’s Trent Langskaill
CHAMPION DATA’S FINALS CHANCES
PREDICTED FINAL LADDER
1. Adelaide (129.3, 68PTS)
2. Geelong (117.5, 66PTS)
3. GWS Giants (117.4, 64PTS)
4. Port Adelaide (131.7, 56PTS)
5. Richmond (108.5, 56PTS)
6. Sydney (113.8, 52PTS)
7. Melbourne (111.4, 52PTS)
8. West Coast (105.6, 52PTS)
-----------------------------------------
9. Essendon (109.8, 48PTS)
10. Western Bulldogs (99.5, 48PTS)
11. St Kilda (95.7, 44PTS)
12. Hawthorn (89.8, 42PTS)
13. Fremantle (81.7, 32PTS)
Ralph: Dusty doesn’t owe cynical Tigers fans a thing
If Dustin Martin does move to the Suns, he’s not Dusty the Deserter, he doesn’t owe the Tiger army anything, writes Jon Ralph. But there’s a key question the legend must answer.
Why Bombers, Lions, Saints can’t match it with the best
Every club needs a player – ideally several – who can take a game by the scruff of the neck and drag his team over the line. JON RALPH writes the clubs without one are stuck in the wilderness.