Is your team a finals chance? Champion Data rates every team
THE RUN HOME: Is the top eight set? Gilbert Gardiner casts his eye over the final six weeks and it looks like bad news for the Bulldogs and Essendon.
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IS IT curtains for the reigning premiers?
Gilbert Gardiner has cast his eye over the run home and it doesn’t look good for the Western Bulldogs, despite a predicted four wins in the final six weeks.
With a congested mid-table fight for finals, the Bulldogs are predicted to miss out, along with Essendon and St Kilda.
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It would mean the current ladder holds to Round 23 with West Coast holding on to eighth and Port Adelaide fending off Richmond for the double chance.
Adelaide is predicted to finish as minor premiers with just one loss in the run home, ahead of Geelong and GWS.
Check out our predictions and what it means for the qualifying and elimination finals below.
1. ADELAIDE (140.4%, 48PTS)
R18 Geelong (AO) WIN
R19 Collingwood (MCG) WIN
R20 Port Adelaide (AO) WIN
R21 Essendon (ES) WIN
R22 Sydney (AO) WIN
R23 West Coast (S) LOSS
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: The Crows might be 0-3 in the Don Pyke era against Geelong but home ground and the prospect of shoring up a top-two spot should see them edge past the Cats. The Crows would not want to drop this with the Showdown — a lottery — and a dangerous Essendon on the horizon.
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: The first team to officially punch their finals ticket after a rousing win over Melbourne in Darwin. A top-of-the-table clash against Geelong this week could decide the minor premiership with a Showdown, Sydney and West Coast (away) to come.
2. GEELONG (118.1%, 46PTS)
R18 Adelaide (AO) L
R19 Carlton (ES) W
R20 Sydney (SS) W
R21 Richmond (SS) W
R22 Collingwood (MCG) W
R23 GWS Giants (SS) W
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Will he, won’t he? That is the question. The smart play is for Patrick Dangerfield (foot) to sit out and focus on the following five rounds - all winnable games. If he plays and the Cats win, then top spot is well and truly on the agenda. If not, the Round 23 could decide home-ground advantage for a qualifying final.
BEN BROAD SAYS: Tough run home for the Cats, starting with Friday night. Every game from here until the finals looks delicately poised - especially given Geelong’s tendency to struggle against teams outside the eight. Carlton and Collingwood will pose tricky assignments, while home clashes against both Sydney clubs look toss-of-the-coin jobs. Probably need to win four of six to lock away a top-four berth.
3. GWS GIANTS (115.7%, 44PTS)
R18 Richmond (MCG) W
R19 Fremantle (SPO) W
R20 Melbourne (UNSW) W
R21 Western Bulldogs (ES) W
R22 West Coast (SPO) W
R23 Geelong (SS) L
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: The Ferrari revs OK in the garage but we’re yet to see the orange-and-grey machine in top gear. A win over Richmond at the ‘G could certainly get the ball rolling towards September in what could potentially be their last game on the hallowed turf before the big dance.
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: Back-to-back draws hurt the Giants minor premiership hopes and the final five weeks are tough with top eight teams Richmond, Melbourne, West Coast and Geelong as well as a desperate Bulldogs to come. With the Tigers, Power and even Sydney lurking, the double chance is far from safe.
4. PORT ADELAIDE (136.3%, 40PTS)
R18 Melbourne (MCG) W
R19 St Kilda (AO) W
R20 Adelaide (AO) L
R21 Collingwood (AO) W
R22 Western Bulldogs (EU) L
R23 Gold Coast (AO) W
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Huge game against the Dees with a top-four spot up for grabs. The Crows and premiers Western Bulldogs in Ballarat the only headaches for this premiership smoky.
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: In the top four ... for now. After a strong win over North Melbourne, the Power are rated a 70 per cent to hang onto the double chance by Champion Data and with four of the last six games at Adelaide Oval (one of which is a Showdown), they’d certainly fancy themselves.
5. RICHMOND (107.4%, 40PTS)
R18 GWS Giants (MCG) L
R19 Gold Coast (MS) W
R20 Hawthorn (MCG) W
R21 Geelong (SS) L
R22 Fremantle (S) W
R23 St Kilda (MCG) W
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Did a job on Port Adelaide behind enemy lines and will need to do the same against Geelong in Round 21 to keep faint top-four hopes alive. The Giants are gettable, but mindful of their midfield class and tall timber forward which could stretch the Tigers.
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: Despite sitting comfortably in fifth, the Tigers are still rated a far from convincing 73 per cent chance of playing finals by Champion Data. On current form only the clash against Gold Coast would be seen as an obvious win. Missing the finals from here would take “Richmondy” to a whole new level. Surely not!
6. SYDNEY SWANS (113.4%, 36PTS)
R18 St Kilda (SCG) W
R19 Hawthorn (MCG) W
R20 Geelong (SS) L
R21 Fremantle (SCG) W
R22 Adelaide (AO) L
R23 Carlton (SCG) W
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Have done an incredible job to get this far but the job is far from over. A win this week gives the Swans a 96 per cent chance of making the eight, according to Champion Data. If all goes to plan, then a top-four spot could also be up for grabs in Round 20 against Geelong.
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: There isn’t a hotter team in the AFL. From 0-6 the Swans are now rated a 92 per cent of playing finals and 29 per cent chance of top four. Unbelievable! The run home isn’t easy with games against five potential finals contenders in the final six weeks.
7. MELBOURNE (106.7%, 36PTS)
R18 Port Adelaide (MCG) L
R19 North Melbourne (BA) W
R20 GWS Giants (UNSW) L
R21 St Kilda (MCG) W
R22 Brisbane (MCG) W
R23 Collingwood (MCG) W
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: The next month can make or break the Demons. The Power and Saints assignments have major top-four and top-eight ramifications, while Simon Goodwin still had four solid seasons of footy left in Adelaide the last time the Demons defeated North Melbourne.
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: The Demons have the staggers after two losses in three weeks and that one win - over Carlton - was far from convincing. Injuries have certainly played a part. The Demons should hang on with winnable games against North, Brisbane and Collingwood in the run home.
8. WEST COAST (102.1%, 36PTS)
R18 Collingwood (ES) W
R19 Brisbane (S) W
R20 St Kilda (ES) L
R21 Carlton (S) W
R22 GWS Giants (SPO) L
R23 Adelaide (S) W
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: As good as Drew Petrie, Nathan Vardy and Jack Darling have been covering for Josh Kennedy, the big spearhead holds the keys to September. The dual Coleman Medallist returned with 3.2 last week and should only improve. A win over the Saints at Etihad Stadium would cement a place in the top eight.
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: The saying goes “possession is nine-tenths of the law” and the Eagles currently own the last finals ticket. Champion Data rates them a 63 per cent chance to hang on and with games against Collingwood, Brisbane and Carlton to come, it’s hard to argue.
9. ST KILDA (99.4%, 36PTS)
R18 Sydney (SCG) L
R19 Port Adelaide (AO) L
R20 West Coast (ES) W
R21 Melbourne (MCG) L
R22 North Melbourne (ES) W
R23 Richmond (MCG) L
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Too inconsistent to be relied upon in the run home. Their best could see the Saints rocket into the finals but their worst is far from competitive. Tough ask playing the Swans and Power in back-to-back road trips.
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: A week after one of the most sensational performances of 2017, a disappointing loss to Essendon sees the Saints sit ninth and face a nightmare run home with five of six games against top eight teams. Champion Data actually rates the Saints a lesser chance to play finals than the Bulldogs, who are a game and a bit of percentage behind.
10. ESSENDON (108.5%, 32PTS)
R18 North Melbourne (ES) W
R19 Western Bulldogs (ES) L
R20 Carlton (MCG) W
R21 Adelaide (ES) L
R22 Gold Coast (MS) W
R23 Fremantle (ES) W
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: In the mix up to their eyeballs, the Bombers, but will need to get past the Bulldogs or Adelaide to get the chocolates. A win over the Bulldogs would give the Bombers a 54 per cent chance of making the eight, according to Champion Data. A loss relegates the comeback kids to 19 per cent.
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: At the start of the year the Bombers would have been long odds to play finals and a shock loss to Brisbane three weeks ago didn’t help. However, two strong wins over Collingwood and St Kilda have John Worsfold’s men right in the frame. Aside from Adelaide in Round 21, Essendon would fancy their chances in every game in the run home.
11. WESTERN BULLDOGS (94.2%, 32PTS)
R18 Gold Coast (CS) W
R19 Essendon (ES) W
R20 Brisbane (G) W
R21 GWS Giants (ES) L
R22 Port Adelaide (EU) W
R23 Hawthorn (ES) L
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Will need a lot to go right to steady the ship, the Bulldogs. Have so far been unable to string good games together and that is exactly what needs to happen for the premiers to defend their title. Can build momentum over the next few weeks but the last month is very tricky.
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: The win over Carlton was a positive step forward but the reigning premiers are still in trouble. Wins in the next three weeks are a must. Before a tricky final tree weeks against GWS, Port Adelaide in Ballarat and Hawthorn. Champion Data only rates the Dogs a 36 per cent chance to play finals, which is far from confidence building.
12. FREMANTLE (80.6%, 28PTS)
R18 Hawthorn (S) L
R19 GWS (SPO) L
R20 Gold Coast (S) W
R21 Sydney (SCG) L
R22 Richmond (S) L
R23 Essendon (ES) L
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: With a 1 per cent chance to make the eight, ‘Ross the Boss’ is best to turn his attention to helping Chris and Brad Scott plot their International Rules campaign.
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: The Dockers are two games back of the top eight, so can’t be discounted given the craziness of this season. Chances are Fremantle go win, loss, win, loss, win, loss from here on in, which won’t be enough to see a return to September.
13. HAWTHORN (84.4%, 26PTS)
R18 Fremantle (DS) W
R19 Sydney (MCG) L
R20 Richmond (MCG) L
R21 North Melbourne (US) W
R22 Carlton (ES) W
R23 Western Bulldogs (ES) W
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Will not make the eight, but can certainly shape it given it plays Sydney, Western Bulldogs and Richmond in the run home.
MICK RANDALL SAYS: The loss to Geelong just about put paid to Hawthorn’s hopes of playing finals. Champion Data rates it only a two per cent chance to play finals and a loss to Fremantle at Subiaco would probably spell the end. Sydney and Richmond follow before a dream run home against North, Carlton and the potentially-shot Bulldogs in Luke Hodge’s last game.
CHAMPION DATA’S FINALS CHANCES
PREDICTED FINAL LADDER
1. Adelaide (129.3, 68PTS)
2. Geelong (117.5, 66PTS)
3. GWS Giants (117.4, 64PTS)
4. Port Adelaide (131.7, 56PTS)
5. Richmond (108.5, 56PTS)
6. Sydney (113.8, 52PTS)
7. Melbourne (111.4, 52PTS)
8. West Coast (105.6, 52PTS)
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9. Essendon (109.8, 48PTS)
10. Western Bulldogs (99.5, 48PTS)
11. St Kilda (95.7, 44PTS)
12. Hawthorn (89.8, 42PTS)
13. Fremantle (81.7, 32PTS)
WHICH WOULD MEAN ... FINALS WEEK 1
First qualifying final: Adelaide v Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
Second qualifying final: Geelong v GWS Giants, MCG/Simonds Stadium
First elimination final: Richmond v West Coast, MCG
Second elimination final: Sydney v Melbourne, SCG
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