Will Geelong’s brutal midfield pairing of Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood be enough to topple the Swans?

THE one-two punch of Dangerfield and Selwood is almost impossible to limit, let alone stop. At what point do these two tip the game into Geelong’s favour?

Patrick Dangerfield will be a key for the Cats against Sydney. Picture: Getty Images

GEELONG possess the most brutal midfield pairing in the AFL.

The one-two punch of Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood is almost impossible to limit, let alone stop. At what point do these two tip the game into Geelong’s favour?

More significantly, what happens if Joel and Patrick don’t play to somewhere near their absolute

best?

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Against Sydney in Round 16 these two accounted for one half of the Cats clearances and

75 per cent of their centre bounce takeaways.

Digest that properly. Three-quarters of their centre-bounce clearances, an extreme overreliance that would alarm Chris Scott.

Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield must fire for the Cats this weekend. Picture: Getty Images

They are Geelong’s extraction plan, as these two rate number one and two in the AFL for centre-bounce clearances. What is Plan B if Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker take control and play with the fanaticism and ruthless physicality of last week?

Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood have had 80 and 75 centre-bounces clearances respectively this season but ruckman Zac Smith is the Cats’ next best — on 25.

This sizeable drop-off highlights a lack of core midfield depth.

The Swans have a greater spread with five players boasting 25 or more centre clearances. John Longmire has a trust and significant belief that was challenged after the first round of the finals but restored within minutes last weekend.

If Kennedy and Co. can repeat the dose, then this game is over.

Geelong average 37 points a game from clearances over the season but was held to just 13 points back in round 16.

It’s not necessarily a case of how good is Patrick Dangerfield or Joel Selwood, it’s how good are the rest? Is the gulf enough to deny a Grand Final berth?

The centre bounces will be akin to a UFC title fight. The AFL could do worse than to cage the centre square and just enjoy the brutality.

So much will be learned from their last encounter. Chris Scott must address the counter-punching, slingshot nature of the Swans who scored almost two-thirds of their score from the defensive half of the field.

The Cats couldn’t disrupt nor deny the short-kicking Sydney ball movement. They made the Cats defend and despite only conceding 43 inside 50s, they leaked 98 points.

All of this with Lance Franklin slotting only one goal. Sydney had 11 goalkickers that Friday night as it was more about the commitment to run and stay involved as usable and viable options. Kieren Jack and Dan Hannebery set the extreme workrate standards.

Kieren Jack was outstanding last time the Cats and Swans met. Picture: Getty Images

Geelong didn’t maximise their prime forward target last time as Tom Hawkins took only two marks inside the forward 50m despite being targeted 11 times. Mitch Clark failed to produce and the quality of entry was as poor as Geelong has executed for some time.

This must and will change tonight.

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The six-day break for the Swans will be in the forefront of the Cats’ thinking as the deeper this game goes, the longer it’s war without weapons, the more likely Sydney are to tire.

Geelong is well rested and tactically would’ve had three or four training sessions altering their methods for this specific match-up.

It’s incredibly difficult to split these two teams but I feel the physicality and depth of the Swan

midfield may just hold sway. Smash them on the inside and grab a Grand Final berth.

Swans by 15 points.

CASE STUDY

Round 16

Sydney 15.8 (98) d Geelong 9.6 (60)

Simonds Stadium (night)

Goals

Swans: K Jack 3, D Towers, T Papley 2

Cats: D Menzel, T Hawkins 2

Best

Swans: Rampe, Parker, Hannebery, Mitchell

Cats: Dangerfield, Selwood, Lonergan, Mackie

Sydney players celebrate their win against Geelong in Round 16 Picture:Wayne Ludbey

MATCH MATHS

Sydney Geelong

373 Disposals 337

123 Groundball gets 107

214 Uncontested possessions 184

43 Inside 50s 52

64 Points launched from defensive half 9

37 Scores from stoppages 13

THE GAME

- Sydney dominated around the contest, winning the groundball differential by 16 — Geelong’s third-worst result this year

- The Cats won the territory battle convincingly, recording a time in forward half differential of + 7:43 — Sydney’s sixth worst result this season

- However, Geelong couldn’t penetrate the Swans defence, generating a goal 17.3 per cent of the time, its second worst effort this season

- Sydney’s ball movement cut the Cats apart, generating 51 points from chains starting at half back — the second most by any side this season

RECENT FORM

- Since these sides last met, Geelong has recorded a contested possession differential of +27.2 per game — ranked No.1

- The Cats have taken 15 marks per game inside 50 — ranked No.1 — and the Swans have conceded 8.9 marks per game inside 50 — ranked second

- These sides have been the hardest teams to score against all season, Sydney conceding 68.4 points per game — ranked No.1 — and Geelong 71.2 a game

- Geelong has outscored its opposition by 22.8 points per game from turnovers — ranked second. Sydney has only been outscored by this margin three times for the year