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David King gives his five key performance indicators for the AFL Grand Final

DAVID King nominates his five key performance indicators that will make one of Sydney or the Western Bulldogs the 2016 premiers.

Liam Picken and Tom Liberatore will be keys for the Western Bulldogs. Picture: AAP Images.
Liam Picken and Tom Liberatore will be keys for the Western Bulldogs. Picture: AAP Images.

LUKE Beveridge and the Western Bulldogs have taken the football world on a surreal yet erratic journey that’s akin to a feel-good movie.

More twists and turns, incredible ups and downs but they’re still standing despite the body blows consistently landed on them throughout the season.

There isn’t a player in the AFL that wouldn’t want to play for Luke Beveridge. Extremely supportive and always positive, Luke Beveridge is fuelling a fire of belief that rages out of control. It engulfs the players, coaches, staff and now those faithful, success-starved supporters.

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John Longmire’s Swans bring a ruthlessness that the competition has struggled to handle.

A glut of midfield warriors that take no prisoners in their attack on the football but also charge into defence to assist and outnumber the opposition.

It’s a commitment to team football that’s unrivalled.

The Swans and the Western Bulldogs play finals football every time they step onto the field of battle.

Every player in the league would like to play for Luke Beveridge, says David King. Picture: Getty Images
Every player in the league would like to play for Luke Beveridge, says David King. Picture: Getty Images

While they have differing game styles, they desire very similar key components for success.

I’ve nominated five key performance indicators that will make one of these two teams the 2016 premier.

THE START

Sydney’s midfielders will try to physically intimidate the young Western Bulldog midfield from the very first centre bounce.

The Swans are the competition’s best first-quarter team, scoring 287 points more than their opposition across the full season. In the last two finals the Swans have booted seven goals in each first quarter. The game was put to bed early.

Luke Parker is the instigator of all things confrontational and Tom Liberatore and Marcus

Bontempelli must match, if not surpass, Parker’s levels.

If the Bulldogs can withstand the challenge and embrace the physical contest in the first term I believe that Easton Wood will hold aloft the premiership cup.

HANDBALL GAME

Luke Beveridge’s handball club has revolutionised exiting of high traffic, clearance areas. The Dogs handball more than any other team, not always legally, but it’s slick and it will test the defensive efforts and effectiveness of the Swan midfielders.

The Swans put on more pressure than any other team and are renowned for disrupting the opposition handball game and forcing them into turnover.

They hunt with an attitude superior to most but if they don’t bring those supreme levels of intensity, the Swans won’t be winning.

Effective and pure clearances will be priceless this afternoon.

Lance Franklin’s speed will be a key for Sydney. Picture: Phil Hillyard
Lance Franklin’s speed will be a key for Sydney. Picture: Phil Hillyard

TERRITORY GAME

The Bulldogs rely heavily on locking the ball inside their forward half.

The Dogs must not only force the Swans into hack kicking out of defence but ensure they punish them on the scoreboard once they do.

They cannot allow the Swans to absorb the Bulldog inside 50s. Short, sharp and shallow entries rather than bombed type must be the focus.

The Swans will try to punish the Bulldog defenders who press high up the field, utilising their assertive defence. The speed of Lance Franklin and Gary Rohan will expose any Bulldog positioning errors by the back six.

It’s been a major weapon for John Longmire over the past month and if negated may see the Swans struggling to score.

GRID v ONE ON ONE

The Western Bulldogs run a spatial defence yet the Swans prefer a one-on-one model that has served them so well for so long.

There is no right or wrong way to play AFL. No philosophy is better than the other, but how effective these modes are is now up to the players. Great plans need great execution.

The Bulldog mode protects the back six and allows the opposition less inside 50m opportunities — but there is a high likelihood of a goal if they penetrate.

The Swans are polar opposites. More opportunities but a bullet-proof defensive 50m.

Just who is more committed defensively, when their team is without possession, will go a long way to winning this Grand Final.

The organisation of Dale Morris and Matthew Boyd pitted against the intercepting six down back for the Swans led by Dane Rampe.

Sydney defenders like to body the target player heavily, allowing time for an intercept marking teammate to float, third man in, and take possession.

Heath Grundy is the master of denying his forward any reasonable marking opportunity.

Marcus Bontempelli has enjoyed a brilliant finals series. Picture: AAP Images.
Marcus Bontempelli has enjoyed a brilliant finals series. Picture: AAP Images.

STAR INFLUENCE

It’s indisputable that at some stage this game will require a star to stand up.

The Western Bulldogs have lent on Marcus Bontempelli, particularly in second halves, to get

them over the line. At 20, he’s doing remarkable things. Why not Saturday?

Luke Dahlhaus is flying under the radar. Can Clay Smith continue his rich vein of goalkicking form, seven in three weeks and just what will Jake Stringer bring? One big quarter from Jake and the flag could be theirs!

Memo: Bont needs help!

The Swans have the biggest of game-changers in Lance Franklin who appears angry and set to explode. His presence is at an all-time high but his accuracy at goal is always the question.

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The Swans midfield possesses significant star power but they must also hit the scoreboard.

Luke Parker appears the most likely yet Tom Mitchell is a sneaky 2-3 goal chance.

This Grand Final will be one for the ages. Undecided until deep into the final term, then separated by a star, probably Lance Franklin.

It tips me towards Sydney by two or three goals.

Luke Parker for the Norm Smith.

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Original URL: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/expert-opinion/david-king/david-king-gives-his-five-key-performance-indicators-for-the-afl-grand-final/news-story/2a2b50d571c1c377c66307026c19fafc