Collingwood cannot be trusted in Friday night’s blockbuster against Richmond

Collingwood defeat Richmond earlier in the season with a game plan that frustrated fans, but it could be the key to the inconsistent Magpies getting their season back on track against the in-form Tigers, writes Mick McGuane.

Tom Lynch has averaged three goals in his past two games. Picture: Getty Images

We should expect a defiant Collingwood on Friday night.

But being defiant is one thing, it’s more about rediscovering its brand.

What is it now? It is not identifiable. Even when we see it, it is only in glimpses. It’s far too inconsistent.

The Pies won respect from the footy world late last year for being a strong contest and high-pressure team.

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But this year their form has fluctuated too severely to get an accurate gauge as to how good they are.

Their best is good enough but their inconsistencies are too frequent for them to be trusted.

Friday night is the night to change.

Contest and pressure must exist for two hours, otherwise it will be a long night.

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Richmond, meanwhile, is a unified team working hard and together on both sides of the ball.

In the past month since the bye, the Tigers have averaged 112 points for and only conceded an average of 64.5 points. That’s a team in form.

Their ball movement will be fast. They will challenged Collingwood’s defensive structure. In fact, Richmond is ranked 3rd for going from D50 to inside 50 and No. 2 for going from D50 to score.

So what we will see is a team that believes they can score irrespective of where they win the ball.

THE KEY

COLLINGWOOD — BALL SECURITY

Giving the ball back to Richmond will not cut it.

So, do the Pies revert back to their Round 2 template — controlling the ball? Why not.

It might frustrate and infuriate fans but Nathan Buckley should look to take away Richmond’s turnover game.

In Round 2, the Pies controlled the ball for most of the night, finishing with an extraordinary 174 marks, of which 159 were uncontested.

It helped when their contested brand was evident (+24) in contested ball and their work rate was extreme as indicated by having 167 more disposals.

I’d like to see that.

Collingwood was able to control the ball against the Tigers in Round 2. Picture: Michael Klein

RICHMOND — MAINTAIN THE RAGE

The Tigers’ turnover game is their strength. They have a great ability to create turnover opportunities through high pressure and a strong disciplined defensive structure.

Richmond backs its system. Most importantly, the players trust it.

The Tigers average 57 points a game from turnovers — ranked No. 1 in the competition.

They will punish Collingwood on the scoreboard if the Pies don’t take care of the ball.

THE THEME

COLLINGWOOD — OPERATION PRESSURE

Without complete buy-in of “team pressure” Collingwood’s turnover game will continue to be inconsistent. Pressure at the source is paramount.

Pressure on the Richmond ball carrier is a must.

Without it, defensive structures get challenged as players behind the ball lose faith and trust.

Hence, they will retreat to cover what they think is the right thing to do.

Collingwood must recapture its pressure brand, forcing Richmond’s turnovers and therefore giving itself a chance to increase its season’s average from turnovers of only 33 points per game.

Without high-intensity pressure on Friday night you will give Richmond its want.

Dion Prestia is part of a Richmond midfield that works hard. Picture: Getty Images

RICHMOND — MIDFIELD DOMINANCE

Since the bye, Richmond’s midfield has been in great form.

It is built on high workrate and an application to outnumber.

Trent Cotchin, Dion Prestia, Dustin Martin, Jack Graham, Kane Lambert, Shai Bolton, Shane Edwards, Brandon Ellis and Jayden Short are all significant contributors as to why the Tigers rank No.1 by a long way for post-clearance contested possession differential (+15.5 per game).

They will challenge Collingwood’s midfielders post clearance and if Collingwood’s mids either become “walkers” or are last to leave stoppages, this will give the Tigers a clear advantage.

THE CHALLENGE

COLLINGWOOD — CONTROL STOPPAGE

The Magpies must improve their stoppage game.

They were destroyed by Greater Western Sydney in and out of stoppage last week.

In fact they conceded 76 points from the Giants’ clearances — which was the most conceded under Buckley since the 2012 qualifying final against Hawthorn.

Richmond is not a great stoppage team. This is where Collingwood must look to get an advantage over the Tigers because if they do, it will equate to good territory and give their forwards an opportunity to work their craft in fast play situations.

RICHMOND — CONTROL NUMBERS

The Tigers can ill afford to allow the Magpies’ playmakers to win too much of the ball — if you take into account the numbers from last year’s preliminary final and from Round 2 this year.

Allowing players such as Jack Crisp (average 31), Steele Sidebottom (30.5), Scott Pendlebury (27.5), Adam Treloar (29), Tom Phillips (22.5), Brodie Grundy (22) and Taylor Adams (36 in last year’s prelim final) to return those figures would likely cause a Collingwood upset.

The Magpies can get you with weight of numbers and supply.

Scott Pendlebury had 31 disposals in Round 2. Picture: Mark Stewart

MAGNET BOARD

IF I WERE COLLINGWOOD ...

Jordan Roughead has to be given the opportunity to take on Tom Lynch.

Lynch is in outstanding form in the past two weeks, averaging 18.5 disposals, five forward 50 ground ball gets and three goals.

Strong messaging must be delivered to whoever plays in Collingwood’s forward line — the ability to chase and tackle must be non-negotiable.

The vision of Lachie Whitfield charging out of the Pies’ forward 50 after starting an offensive chain and nearly receiving the ball back inside his own 50m last week was completely embarrassing. That cannot be allowed to happen.

IF I WERE RICHMOND ...

Trust in the system would be the competitive starting point.

In last year’s preliminary final, Damien Hardwick was criticised for allowing Steele Sidebottom to roam free on his wing, gathering a match-defining 41 disposals.

Backing their system will be a priority but having a Jack Graham or Brandon Ellis or Jayden Short slightly adjust their game to be more accountable if one of Collingwood’s playmakers start to influence the contest should enter Dimma’s mind as a top four spot is up for grabs.

THE VERDICT

Richmond by 13