Champion Data stats reveal why teams in the finals race can and can’t win the 2018 premiership

THERE might be just four rounds to go, but an unusually high number of eleven teams can still win the 2018 premiership. JON ANDERSON looks at why your team can and can’t win the flag.

Which teams can win the flag in 2018?

WITH just four rounds to go the AFL top eight remains a puzzle even Pythagoras couldn’t solve, yet all 11 contenders have the capabilities of going all the way.

So with the considerable help of Champion Data here are the reasons your team could hold that silver cup aloft at season’s end.

And of course with good comes the bad, meaning there is also the area which requires improvement to win a premiership.

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RICHMOND

Why they can win it: Have more overall strengths than any side. Or in golfing parlance, the Tigers have three ‘1-Woods’ — system, pressure and ball movement.

Concern: They rank 18th in clearance differential and since 1999 no premier has won with such a ranking.

The Tigers currently sit on top of the ladder. Picture: Mark Stewart

WEST COAST

Why they can win it: The Eagles are offensively and defensively strong, ranking fourth for generating a score from an inside 50 and for conceding a score from an opposition inside 50.

Concern: The midfield and loss of Nic Naitanui. The Eagles rank 18th for ground ball differential (no premier has ever ranked 18th).

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COLLINGWOOD

Why they can win it: Because of a dominant midfield, ranking No.1 for disposal differential and clearance differential, and fourth for contested possession differential.

Concern: One-on-one defensively. Over the last four weeks, Collingwood has lost 38% of one-on-one contests in the defensive 50 — clearly the worst percentage.

Scott Pendlebury has been in great form all season. Picture: Michael Klein

PORT ADELAIDE

Why they can win it: Defensively strong, ranking No.1 for points conceded and second for conceding a score from an opposition inside 50.

Concern: Struggling to score, averaging the fewest points of any top-12 side, and ranking 13th for generating a score once inside 50.

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GWS GIANTS

Why they can win it: Since Round 11 their midfield has been on fire, ranking No.1 for contested possession differential, clearance differential and scores from clearances.

Concern: Since the bye, the Giants have ranked 15th for pressure applied.

Josh Kelly’s return from injury has been massive for GWS’s midfield. Picture: Getty

MELBOURNE

Why they can win it: They play a sustainable game, ranking No.1 for time in forward half differential, inside 50 differential, and turnovers created in the forward half.

Concern: Ranked 15th for conceding a score and a goal from an opposition inside 50.

HAWTHORN

Why they can win it: Defensively strong, having been the hardest team all season to move the ball against from defensive 50 and halfback.

Concern: Their midfield, ranking 14th for contested possession differential and clearance differential.

Tom Mitchell plays a bit of a lone hand in the Hawthorn midfield. Picture: Getty

GEELONG

Why they can win it: Since the Essendon loss, Geelong has lost the clearance count and the contested possession count just once.

Concern: Have conceded 90 points per game over the last five weeks, compared to conceding 58 points per game between Rounds 4-14.

SYDNEY SWANS

Why they can win it: If Lance Franklin can get fit they have proven to be dangerous when going inside 50, ranking fourth for generating a goal once inside.

Concern: Can’t get the game played in their forward half, ranking 18th for time in forward half differential since Round 15.

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NORTH MELBOURNE

Why they can win it: In the last month their midfield has been dominant, ranking No.1 for both contested possession differential and clearance differential.

Concern: Their pressure has fallen away, ranking No.1 in the first 11 rounds, and ranking 15th since Round 12.

ESSENDON

Why they can win it: Their midfield has turned things around since Round 9, ranking No.1 for disposal and clearance differential, second for uncontested possession differential and third for inside 50 differential.

Concern: They have left their run too late, rated only a nine per cent chance of making finals.

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